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Buying 1% in a Pink: IBCX

Started by David Randolph, December 01, 2006, 04:00:59 AM

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David Randolph

Now exclusively considering the short term, I think there are 3 different phases to read on the stocks behaviour:

A) From November 20 to November 27

The company released this press release on November 13th:
IBAC Corporation's Board of Directors Announces a 25% Stock Dividend

Nothing happened until someone started pumping IBCX with e-mails spam. The e-mail said something like this:
«Nakedstock tells me I need to "hurry" to buy shares of IBAC (OTC BB: IBCX.PK) so I won't miss its 25% stock dividend on Dec. 1. The email shouts out in huge type: "You have to own IBCX as of December 1st to receive 1 free share for every 4 you own."»

So, naive investors bought the stock until Friday (on Friday they were already crying). Probably many of them sold in tears on Friday, when Motley Fool explained the dividend was irrelevant.

B) From November 27 to December 1st (Friday):

Naked short sellers, the authors of the e-mail, sold shares to the naive investors described in A), from a high of $0.021 to a low of $0.007. Naive investors kept on holding not understanding what was going on and thinking "I need to hold until December 1st to get the dividend", until they read the Fools article and dumped shares.

C) Starting today

Naive investors already dumped most of their shares for a big loss, but some of them will sell today, as they think "well, I have the dividend secure, I can sell now", which is stupid, because the dividend is irrelevant (and they lost more than the 25% anyway) and everybody is confused about the ex-dividend date, I think not even the company knows the NASD rule for dividends of equal or more than 25%. Anyway, are Pink Sheets regulated by the NASD? Big confusion here, I'm not sure either, but I don't care all that much because I know, as Michael says, the dividend is a non-event, completely irrelevant.

Naked shorts now will start to buy to cover, or will they try to push it down even lower? They might, but it doesn't make much sense, because they should use the "naive" selling to buy to cover.

I guess they didn't count on having 3 Stocks and others on the buy side on Friday, as we see value. This could unfold on a very rapid rise, as naked shorts buy to cover and people start realizing the true story behind IBCX (going deeper than this dividend - ex-dividend irrelevant issue).

We'll see. I'll continue holding IBCX.


basanlas

David,

I live in the Ft Myers area and I can say that the restaurants (Sanibel Steakhouse)are locally considered the best Steakhouse of the area. It's just good to know that a pink is actually doing business and not some hocus pocus!!

Basanlas

422fwhp

...one helluva shakeout   :-\

Nibbled a bit more at .0045

nullzero

Wish I bought today but oh well... I bought at .0075 only down 28% which is not bad for a pinky im just going to hold it out for the long haul.

bocasva

Quote from: bocasva on December 03, 2006, 04:09:20 PM
Quote from: bocasva on December 01, 2006, 02:06:23 PM
I've had a limit order at .0061 since the market opened and they are not filling it even when it shows the price is .006, pinksheet stocks are always a nasty business one way or the other.  >:(

They never filled any of it, and I'm glad they didn't. Might try to pick it up between .004 and .0045

I guess the market maker heard my complain from Friday and was kind enough to fill me at .0041 today.  Looking to unload it already for a quick profit though.

thai626

#20
I just got filled too (moderate size position).  I bought at .005 based on just speculation and terliso's magic lines!  Now I've just got to sit back and relax and watch the magic happen!   ;D

Good luck all.
Current Holdings:  ASTM, STV, SVA, NIHK.ob

tokyopua

Wow, pretty brutal drop so far in just 2 days, but I guess I am not used to trading pink sheet stocks that often.   ::)  My last one was ETIM, and I lost money there.  I forget if Gamez n Flix (GZFX?) was a pink sheet, I think I came out about even on that one.

I still feel good given that it seems the net brain trust of 3SOF administrators and top stock pickers seems to agree it should go up, but if it werent for that I would have sold already lol!
Chance favors the prepared mind

David Randolph

#22
Quote from: basanlas on December 04, 2006, 06:38:36 AM
David,

I live in the Ft Myers area and I can say that the restaurants (Sanibel Steakhouse)are locally considered the best Steakhouse of the area. It's just good to know that a pink is actually doing business and not some hocus pocus!!

Basanlas

Thanks for the information Basanlas :). I guess just those two Florida restaurants are worth more than the company's market cap, and they're for sale.

But nobody is completely sure about the current market cap. That's why I never traded Pink Sheets before this one. I was attracted to it because it has a pro forma balance sheet. They changed the number of authorized and issued shares frequently in the past, but hey, at least they have a number of authorized shares (most Pinks don't).

Anyway, the fact is that I'm losing 58% on this position in just a couple of days. I warned something like this could happen:

QuoteIBCX presents an opportunity where one can lose 50% in a few days (or even in one day, beware), or make 10 times the money invested in a short period of time.

I'm glad I used the position size as a money management tool, so the 58% loss only represents 0.58% of total equity, nothing serious. But I know some of you bought more than 1% of capital in IBCX.PK, and I'm feeling I shouldn't have recommended this stock, because the risk was too damn high (it didn't look so, but being a PK, you know).

My best guess at trying to understand the market's behaviour is the most simple it can be:

1) Those e-mails pumping the stock said: "you need to hold until December 1st to get the 25% dividend"
2) According to those e-mails, the ex-dividend date was today, so that may explain the market reaction, as all the "e-mail buyers" dumped.

Going forward I rationally expect the stock to move higher, since according to public information it is trading at a fraction of its value, but two things may be happening:

1) We don't know the market cap, the company might be issuing and selling shares in a rage, and will take it down to $0.0001. It will sell everything it can, nevermind the price. I wonder if insiders own a significant portion of the company's shares, or are they just "employees"? I'll try to study this for the next update.

2) Everybody is concentrated on the dividend issue, and the market is doing what it should do if that were the only issue, going up on pumping, then down when people started to perceive the dividend was irrelevant, and finally down on the perceived ex-dividend day.

Scenario 1) is bearish and scenario 2) is bullish. I need to study more and perhaps let the market trade a couple of days more to figure which one we're in.

But I can tell you, if I get convinced we're on scenario 2), I'll pump it myself, writing a very bullish article, spreading it across the internet (I know how to do it ;)) and putting the stock where it should be, at least $0.1.

If "naked short staff" did it I can also do it >:D (but now for the right reasons). Perhaps you guys can help me when the time comes, if you have the willing and time.

For now, I'll continue holding IBCX.

(By the way, the 3 SOF Portfolio math for calculating intraday variation is considering we always put 6.66% of capital in each stock, but as you know we only put 1% in IBCX, so where you read -2.03% it should read +0.67% for today's change. The total gain is always right, standing at 236.27% since April 2005. Ramsburg is fixing this technical problem)

AussieTrader

#23
Quote from: David Randolph on December 04, 2006, 08:03:01 PM

2) According to those e-mails, the ex-dividend date was today, so that may explain the market reaction, as all the "e-mail buyers" dumped.


I think we might be in for another buying surge once the dividend date pump becomes widely accepted as wrong. In fact we SHOULD start pumping this to help it on it's way. This is more in line with the NASD regulation for 25% or greater dividends Iposted a few days back http://www.nasd.com/web/groups/rules_regs/documents/notice_to_members/nasdw_003997.pdf. Well, we will see. As with all things pink the truth is very cloudy & grey.
Take a look to this info posted on investorhub which confirms this NASD regulation (well if you take it at face value which you probably should not).

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=15269024

IBCX ~ 25% Stock Dividend Clarified .....
I had a conference call ~ 12/04/06 with
IBCX Transfer Agent & Ameritrade Dividend Compliance Dept
Ameritrade Dividend Dept. ... 888-723-8504 ~ Ex 4532 .. Kevin
He confirmed Div issue date ~ 12/18/06 with buying up to 12/15/06 to qualify for dividend ....
*25% Stock Dividend ~ Paid ~ 12/18/06 ~ X ...
( Buy up to 12/15/06 ~ X ) ... ( Sell up to 12/15/06 ~ No Div )
You should Verify with your Broker Div Dept DTC Report for X Date of Issue ....
T/A will issue Cert. to DTC & Street Name on 12/15/06 for DTC Broker Distribution
T/A Cannot Verify X Date of Broker Ownership Issue Date ....

AussieTrader
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Stocky2000

QuoteBut I can tell you, if I get convinced we're on scenario 2), I'll pump it myself, writing a very bullish article, spreading it across the internet (I know how to do it Wink) and putting the stock where it should be, at least $0.1.

nice to read david

today trendline 2 showed support....sure 1 hour to go

David Randolph

#25
Thanks for your messages AussieTrader and ket1390 :)

The picture looks much brighter to me now. The Pink Sheets market is really inefficient. Now I feel confident we're on scenario 2 of my previous update, that is, to recap, what happened was:

1) The company released a press release on November 13th announcing a 25% stock dividend.
2) On November 20th somebody started a pump and dump operation, using this dividend press release, as most people are attracted by dividends (of course, they don't know what they're doing, they just see a 25% gain compared with the 2% yield of bank deposits. They ignore the fact that stock prices move, a lot !). The e-mail said they needed to buy until December 1st, which is consistent with the words on the press release (shareholders on record at December 1st). Buyers didn't know you need to hold shares 3 days before the ex-dividend date to be a shareholder of record, much less they knew about the NASD rule for dividends equal or higher than 25%.
3) The stock price rose from $0.003 to $0.021 in just five trading sessions. Volume was strong. The group that pumped the stock sold shares short, naked shorts. The stock started to trade sharply down as people were perceiving the dividend issue was irrelevant. The sell off continued when Motley Fool clearly explained the dividend was a non event and people acknowledge they were mislead.
4) Yesterday, December 4th, was the low point of the stock, as most people had the plan of selling that day, since in their head that was the ex-dividend date.

Remember IBCX traded just $121,600 today, so all this movement and inefficiency is not only possible, it is probable.

What now? Now somebody has to tell the true story about IBCX. Somebody has to go outthere and make the bullish case on the stock, pumping it up 10 fold for all the right reasons, not this stock dividend crap. Do you think I'll try to do it myself? You bet I will !

Here's my pumping plan:

1) The stock must be up on the day. The pump must be done with the market opened and in phases, it's not wise to get everybody on board at the same time.
2) I need to publish a very bullish article on Investors Hub and Raging Bull. The article needs to contain the links to all relevant information, this will work much better because people won't just take my word for a fact.
3) I have a 40 million e-mail database to send the article to. I also have the more than 8,000 3SOF registered users, but I'll go easy on these, urging them to buy just pocket change on IBCX.
4) Finally, I need to spread the article on more popular boards, probably using message boards of companies in the same sector, companies that own restaurants and hotels. Home building and real estate companies will also work well. Then I'll use several nicks to put 5 stars on my messages, responding to myself and other stuff, to get everybody's attention >:D

Ok, I think I've shared the basic pumping principles. This is how I made AMRE rise 1200% in three days, remember? LOL

I'll be on this job tomorrow, if the stock is up on the day, the more, the better ... if not I'll save it for better timing. I tell you, if this doesn't work, nothing will do, and I'll dump my 1% of capital in IBCX (but of course I'll tell you that in advance, when the market is closed).

Wish me luck :)

fous

Sounds like an excellent plan, let the pumping begin ;)
trade it like you mean it!

elliemae

good luck, and I'll do anything to help get the news out! ;)

brookguo

here is a post on Investors Hub, link:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=15315858
Quote
I finally spoke with Ed Hayter today on the phone after leaving a couple messages over the last few days. I am not gonna lie, Ed sounds like a man that is a bit overwhelmed right now. He said receiving over a 100 phone calls a day from shareholders is not out of the ordinary. He also said that he has received many threatening calls and emails as of late. This I find to be ridiculus. People just need to relax. Ed is only one man and can't talk to 100's of people at the same time.

As for the conversation. My main purpose was to let Ed know that if he wants to move forward, he needs to be straightforward with shareholders. I asked him how he would feel right now if he was in our shoes. The company files a Reg Dex and then all off the sudden the T/A stops giving out info to shareholders. He said he completely understood where I was coming from, but reiterated the share structure as Angel has stated. (228 Million O/S, 350 million A/S, approx. 100 million float) He also stated that the Reg Dex was filed in anticipation of future acquisitions and/or deals that might have required its use, however it is not needed at this time due to IBAC securing other sources of financing. (Angel also alluded to this in a past post, that the Reg Dex may have been filed but then never needed) Due to me kind of being in a rush I was unable to get back and reiterate the importance of getting the TA to give out info to shareholders, but Ed did get the original drift that I was not thrilled with the current situation.

We did also dip a little into Ed's past in this conversation. And when the conversation went that direction I was glad to see Ed admit that he made a mistake. He admitted that he did a 504 offering that killed the stock and diluted it to hell back when the company was young (ICAN days), but he said it was a mistake he will never make again. Ed said he has learned a lot in 2 years of being with this company, and if he could go back in time he would have done things much differently. So as I said I was glad to hear Ed feel some remorse for a bad decision he made in the past, as it makes me feel that he is less likely to make another decision like that in the future.

Also as Angel has stated before Ed has a large stake of his own money in this stock as well. Ed personally financed the acquisition of one of their properties out of pocket, with a zero interest loan to the company. He has invested over 6 million dollars of his own money into the future of the IBAC corporation. This should give everyone a little peace of mind. Ed is not diluting shares here, because he stands to lose his shirt if he does. Ed's best source of wealth right now is to build shareholder value and raise the market cap of this company. We both agreed that the stock is trading way below its true valuation, and once again I reiterated that if he wanted it to reach its true value then he would have to do things while keeping us in mind...

I also confirmed that IBAC owns 100% of the Steak Houses and Hotels, however they DO NOT own the land on which they sit. They lease the land for the time being...

All in all I was glad I finally got to speak with Ed on the phone. Makes me feel a little bit better about my position here, as Ed and company are looking for a lot more future PPS growth than just a few spikes here and there...

David Randolph

Thanks for your help :)

The pre-conditions are set for a good pump on IBCX, but I feel sick today (probably something I ate :P), so not really in the mood ... also, if the stock could move a bit higher from current levels, say to $0.009 - $0.01 on its own the pump would work much better, because the job must make it close above $0.021 to be really effective.

Tomorrow is another day, I'm going to bed. You take care.