3SOF

Congrats to all who were holding on to divx !!   
The stock zoomed past 30 with 50% volume coming in the last hours.
Lets see how it holds tomorrow. 

Update:
What a day for DIVX «believers» and Champaign lovers

Honestly, I was not expecting to watch DIVX breaking up to the $30's today, not after the Nasdaq behaviour on Monday, but of course I was not surprised at all to see DIVX above $30, I always thought it was only a matter of (a short) time. Today's white candle was the biggest since the IPO and it was a clear momentum breakout that changes the tone of this chart.

No news on the street, which in fact is good... DIVX has a lot of reasons to go up, therefore speculation and big white candles are only natural things to expect for DIVX (as a lot of volatility both ways too).

I'm not sure what could be behind this move, but I always keep in my mind some of the following thoughts:
- AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, they all have the «power» to own the DivX phenomenum...
- The DIVX concept, like the mp3 a few years ago is quickly spreading around the globe, and DIVX gets royalties for each piece of hardware sold with the DIVX certification. There's a lot of equipment already with DIVX certification, but there is also a lot of «main» gadgets without it yet, not to say that some unexpected «hardware» like Cars (Volvo) are becoming DivX certified.
- The Youtube acquisition by Google for 1.65B makes the Video Scene an interesting sector, especially hot concepts like DIVX that are winning the public demand.
- DIVX's market cap have reached 1.00B with today's climb... but for example RealNetworks (RNWK) market cap is about 1.80B, and in my opinion we cant even compare both companies prospects...

Holding DIVX with such volatility is not an easy job, we are always thinking about locking a good profit... I can't predict what will be the short term upside target for the current swing on DIVX, probably $34 / $36, almost for sure DIVX will have another correctional move to the last resistance (now a support) and some consolidation, but I'm pretty confident that DIVX has a lot more of potential for mid/long term.

Our plan for now will be to continue holding DIVX, although we may change it later and sell DIVX during this swing and try to catch it later, but we have no reasons to sell right now, so the plan is the same:

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

This volatility is killing me.... we need see a bounce here though.  Moving toward 29.50 as I type.

Update:
DIVX had a big sell off today, dropping back to the breakout level and closing on the last relative high (~$29.50). This kind of behaviour is not something new to DIVX, as the chart has done before this kind of ugly candles after previous rallies; I guess it's the natural way of consolidation for DIVX.
We are prepared and expecting this kind of volatility and this works both ways... DIVX has been breaking new ground to the upside and having large consolidation ranges after that...  $29.00 / $29.50 is a support level, below that the $26.50 / $27.00, I'm not expecting to see DIVX going that low, but nevertheless we're confidently holding this stock as we see much more potential to the upside.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
After that big sell off candle, DIVX had a curious candlestick, this Doji can also be interpreted as some point of balance between buyers and sellers with no one taking care of yesterday's session, which corroborate my view of a support near $29.50. The trading volume decreased again, which could be positive taking in consideration this can be a consolidation movement.
Let's wait

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
News:
- DivX, Inc. to Webcast at Cowen and Company 2nd Annual Internet Conference [December 7, 2006 at 2:30pm ET]
- Coverage initiated on DivX by Maxim Group [Recommendation: Hold]

DIVX was down once again with another ugly session, and losing most of the advance from that big white candle. Despite this, DIVX is still showing a powerful up trend on its chart, and we'll continue to hold this position. If DIVX is willing to sell off a bit more, the $26.50/$27.00 area is where the ascending support is plotted right now.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Rams... I love this company! I'm a little overweighted in it already but if we see a drop this morn down to your support area of 27ish... I'm buying a little more Greed has hurt me in the past but I don't seem to ever learn. With DIVX though, something tells me a story is brewing. If Apple or someone really big comes on board; look out.

                      regards, mitch

Quote from: anvilring on December 04, 2006, 08:45:24 AM
Rams... I love this company! I'm a little overweighted in it already but if we see a drop this morn down to your support area of 27ish... I'm buying a little more Greed has hurt me in the past but I don't seem to ever learn. With DIVX though, something tells me a story is brewing. If Apple or someone really big comes on board; look out.

                      regards, mitch

Hi Mitch,
Did you get any  ? I wish you good luck

Update:
And yet another bad session for DIVX...
The stock is now reaching what I think will be a strong support level, the area of $26.50 / $27.00, we'll continue to hold this position as we expect it to break above $30 soon after this consolidation.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:

Interesting Article by Investor's Business Daily:

Quote
Investor's Business Daily
DivX Wants To Be Video Download Standard
Tuesday December 5, 7:00 pm ET
Kevin Harlin


When video sharing Web site Stage6 went live two months ago, DivX (NASDAQ:DIVX - News) executives watched little dots representing new users pop up on a computer monitor in San Diego.

"You just saw Japan light up hours after the service was up," DivX founder and chief executive Jordan Greenhall said. "The Japanese had discovered and were using it."
And the company is not just a hit in Asia. Buy a DVD player in Europe, and odds are the DivX logo will be on the front.

Now the six-year-old San Diego company says consumers in its home country are starting to embrace its higher-quality digital video compression technology as more people take video downloads from their laptops to cell phones and living room televisions.
DivX (pronounced div-ex) makes video compressing and decompressing software, called a codex. By compressing the information, and ditching extraneous data from the file, such technology can shave hours off the download of a full-length feature film, while maintaining high-quality playback.

Only 20% of DVD players sold in the U.S. in the third quarter can play back DivX-encoded video vs. more than 80% in Europe. But for all of 2005, only 5% of U.S. DVD players could read the DivX format.

The company's video sharing site is minuscule in comparison with Google's (NASDAQ:GOOG - News) YouTube, but the company says it's quickly gaining ground.
Users worldwide have already downloaded more than 180 million copies of DivX's software. It's spent more than 260 weeks on Download.com's list of 50 most-downloaded programs, along with a slew of file-sharing and spyware-sweeping programs.
More than 50 million DivX-encoded DVD players, digital cameras, and other devices are now in the hands of consumers around the globe.

The company went public in September at $16 and quickly saw the price double by November. Management owns about 45% of the shares.
"If you look at the stock, it's pretty expensive," said Robert Adams, who watches the stock for Montgomery & Co. "But if there's one thing we pay for on Wall Street, it's visibility."
Adams thinks DivX can become a video standard. "I think they've got much more momentum than someone like Microsoft," he said.

But right now more consumers know YouTube, with its slightly grainy videos of amateur stunts, pontifications and other moments people want to make public. Users view the videos on the ubiquitous but lower-resolution Flash Player, an Adobe Systems (NASDAQ:ADBE - News) product.

But Greenhall, 35, doesn't see Google or Adobe as his competitor.
Adobe's Flash video player is fine for quickly streaming a short clip, he says, but if someone wants to download a longer clip, and perhaps watch it from a comfortable chair on a large-screen television, he'll want the higher image quality DivX's compression and playback technology offers. Greenhall doesn't rule out partnerships with Adobe.
"I have no particular interest in doing what they do, and if they're interested in doing what we do, they're not particularly well-placed to do so," Greenhall said.
His company already has a partnership with Google, getting paid for every customer who installs the search engine's Firefox Web browser with the DivX software download. That accounts for about 20% of revenue.

The other 80% comes from licensing fees from DVD and other electronics makers. On that front, the company is signing deals with major electronics manufacturers such as Samsung and Philips. It gets a royalty of more than $1 per DVD unit sold with its technology embedded.
And the company says Casio is selling a digital camera in Europe that has the DivX coding software inside. Deals with cell phone makers aren't far off either, the company says.
While video on those smaller screens represents less money per unit for DivX, the potential volume is enormous, says analyst Paul Coster of JPMorgan, which underwrote DivX's IPO.
This DivX is no relation to DIVX technology of the 1990s, a sort of pay-per-play DVD system that quickly fell flat.

When Greenhall, two fellow Texas A&M University alums and two other friends founded the company in 2000, it called its software DivX ; ) -- the winking emoticon a nod to what Greenhall called a failed half-step toward digital distribution of video.
DivX is still tainted by some as the software of choice for playing back bootlegged video downloaded on the Internet.

"Since DivX went from being a technology to a company, they've tried to move away from those roots," said Joe Laszlo, a senior analyst covering broadband and media for Jupiter Research. "They're growing up and going legitimate."
And Coster says any outlaw image is unfair.
DivX's Stage6 file sharing site is scrupulously clear of copyrighted materials and illegally downloaded files, he notes.
"They're so squeaky clean, it's kind of boring actually," he said.

But perhaps the biggest danger on the horizon for DivX are the deep pockets and big know-how of the competition. DivX faces the likes of Apple Computer (NASDAQ:AAPL - News), Google, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT - News), News Corp. (NYSE:NWS - News), Sony (NYSE:SNE - News) and YahooYHOO.
And Coster warns to expect some volatility in the stock because of the uncertainty of market adoption.

But he, too, thinks DivX could become the coding standard, as the sharing of video between the Internet, cell phones and the home entertainment center becomes more seamless.
"Its one of these companies that's right in the thick of things," Coster said.



Copyright 2006 Investor's Business Daily, Inc.

DIVX was down once again, now trading really close to the ascending support level. I expect to see some reaction at any moment.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

I think it was Dwest a few sessions back that said the volatility on DIVX was a killer. Sure it is volatile, but very tradeable in a perfectly respected ascending channel.

If you are not in DIVX, this area may represent a nice entry point.

Good Trading

Have you guys seen this?   


Samsung To Launch New Video Phone With DivX

Wire Service - Tuesday, 5 December 2006

As more consumers demand a bigger screen and as carriers push sport on 3G handsets Samsung has chosen to try and grab market share by introducing a new video phone with DivX code capability.





Samsung Electronics plans to release a mobile handset in January that is designed for watching video and supports the DivX video codec.
Both the high-end and video-ready Ultra Video F500 and the Ultra Audio F300 handset, which also plays some video formats, are being shown at the International Telecommunication Union's Telecom World 2006 exhibition and conference being held this week in Hong Kong.

Information on where Samsung will sell the handsets was not immediately available. 

The Ultra Video F500 is a candy bar-shaped handset with a TFT LCD screen that offers 262,000 colors and resolution of 240 pixels by 320 pixels. The screen can also swivel, allowing users to find the optimal screen angle for watching video in one of several formats: DivX, MPEG4, H.264, and Windows Media Video.
Samsung claims the US$350 phone is the first to support DivX, a video codec based on MPEG4 that allows a DVD to be compressed to a much smaller size, allowing longer videos to be downloaded more easily.

Along with video, the Ultra Video F500 handset supports several digital music formats--MP3, Advanced Audio Coding (AAC), AAC+, e-AAC+, and Windows Media Audio (WMA). AAC is the file format used with Apple's iTunes music download service.
In addition to playing a range of music file formats, the Ultra Video can be used with music download services that support WMA digital rights management (DRM) and Microsoft's Media Transfer Protocol. Other features include a microSD slot for a removable Secure Digital memory card, support for Bluetooth version 2.0, and a 2-megapixel digital camera.
Although the handset is on display at Telecom World, it is not switched on and visitors are not able to test its features.
Ultra Audio F300 Specs
Samsung also showed off its upcoming Ultra Audio F300 handset, which will hit the market in January, priced at $250. Shaped like a candy bar, the Ultra Audio does not support third generation (3G) networks and has a slightly smaller screen than the Ultra Video. The Ultra Audio's screen measures 2.1 inches across the diagonal.
Ultra Audio F300 supports the same audio file formats as the Ultra Video. It can also play back MPEG4 and H.263 video files.

Quote from: AussieTrader on December 06, 2006, 02:45:37 AM
If you are not in DIVX, this area may represent a nice entry point.

Applaude the great call.

Quote from: AussieTrader on December 06, 2006, 02:45:37 AM
I think it was Dwest a few sessions back that said the volatility on DIVX was a killer. Sure it is volatile, but very tradeable in a perfectly respected ascending channel.

If you are not in DIVX, this area may represent a nice entry point.

Good Trading

Hi Aussie,
I agree with the «respectable ascending channel», and I'm including on my last chart
About this volatility, it's «tradeable» for sure, but for 3SOF we're just holding since the start, as Livermore once said: "My dear boy, if I sold that stock now I'd lose my position, and then where would I be ?" 

Quote from: thai626 on December 06, 2006, 06:51:23 PM
Have you guys seen this?   


Samsung To Launch New Video Phone With DivX

Wire Service - Tuesday, 5 December 2006

Hi thai

This kind of news will be increasing for the next 12 months I believe... According to that other article, only 20% of US DVD Players have the DivX certificates, against 80% in Europe. Now with DivX being used also in Cell Phones, we should expect more news from much other producers of electronic gadgets.

Update:
After 5 tumbling sessions, DIVX had finally a positive reaction, making our support assumption correct, and possibly setting a new tone for the short term. We continue to expect to watch DIVX beating new highs, its possible some more consolidation, but we're holding this position tight.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
Yet another test to the supports... DIVX is a volatile stock, and that's no surprise to us. I have nothing to update today, we continue to expect a reaction to the upside at these levels, and we're holding this position on the 3SOF Portfolio.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Update:
News: DivX Extends Google Toolbar Deal

I don't think this Google Toolbar deal is much important for DIVX, but it still accounts for about 20% of DIVX revenues... The deal was extended for another year:

QuoteForm 8-K for DIVX INC

8-Dec-2006

Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement

Item 1.01 Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement.
On December 7, 2006, DivX, Inc. (the "Company") entered into an Amendment (the "Amendment") to the Google Toolbar and Google Deskbar Promotion and Distribution Agreement, as amended (the "Agreement"), between the Company and Google, Inc. ("Google").
The Amendment provides for an increase in the minimum distribution commitments of Google software the Company is required to achieve, together with an increase in the minimum fees payable to the Company by Google pursuant to the Agreement. In addition, the Amendment extends the term of the Agreement to the earlier of December 31, 2007 or the date that the Company reaches the cap on the total amounts payable by Google under the Amendment, and provides for an increase in the amount of such cap.

DIVX session was not much volatile, opening near the highs of the day, and losing some gains during the rest of the session. I got nothing new to update at this point, as I continue to expect an upside reaction to the $30s soon.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,