3SOF

The Ascending line came in on Friday at 52.19.  The low on the day was 52.21, so that's a trendline validation, within two cents.  Very close, in this price range.

Friday's close was 52.31.  The Ascending line will come in on Monday, November 27, at 52.3125, so in order for VLO to hold that trendline on a print basis, it needs to open UNCH, or better, and rally immediately.

A slight intraday violation of that trendline is okay, but it inspires more confidence when those tests hold.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 22, 2006, 02:52:48 AM
Bought VLO yesterday at 52.71. Stop: a few pennies below 51.60. Risk: a loss of 2-2½%.

Same stop.

If that Ascending line gets broken AND the 51.60 low of the "Buy Pivot" day both get taken down, I'll want out of it, and I will take a small loss. 

Again... 

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 26, 2006, 11:12:41 AM
Friday's close was 52.31.  The Ascending line will come in on Monday, November 27, at 52.3125, so in order for VLO to hold that trendline on a print basis, it needs to open UNCH, or better, and rally immediately.

The bad news is that trendline didn't hold. 

Quote
If that Ascending line gets broken AND the 51.60 low of the "Buy Pivot" day both get taken down, I'll want out of it, and I will take a small loss. 

Again... 

The good news is that 51.60 held, that VLO rallied yesterday, and that we've now got the possibility of a "mini" W-Bottom (drawn on the chart).  If 53.36 gets taken out, 54.94 would be IN PLAY.

Math:

53.36 - is the Middle of the "W," or the "Buy Pivot"

51.78 - is the low (51.60 and 51.78 are the lows; I use the more conservative of the two)

53.36 - 51.78 = 1.58 Points + 53.36 = Target: 54.94

If 54.94 gets MADE, that also would be a breakout above the 54.73-54.75 highs of the Ascending Triangle, which would put 59.23 IN PLAY.

Math for the Ascending Triangle:

54.73 - High (the more conservative of the two highs)

50.23 - Low

54.73 - 50.23 = 4.50 Points + 54.73 = Target: 59.23

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 05:28:32 AM
that 51.60 held, that VLO rallied yesterday, and that we've now got the possibility of a "mini" W-Bottom (drawn on the chart).  If 53.36 gets taken out, 54.94 would be IN PLAY.

The 53.36 "Buy Pivot" of the "W" Bottom has been taken out convincingly.  54.94 is IN PLAY.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 10:43:51 AM
The 53.36 "Buy Pivot" of the "W" Bottom has been taken out convincingly.  54.94 is IN PLAY.

WOW...that's a bit of a surprise to see a technical breakout of the Ascending Triangle, after this morning's breakout of the "W" Bottom.  That's a DOUBLE breakout today. 

I don't expect that to hold up on a closing basis, but it's nice to see it, and the volume is good.  VLO already has traded is 100-Day Average Volume, so that's good, too.

The high thus far is 54.87, close enough tor our W-Bottom target of 54.94 to consider it MADE.

We'd like to see VLO hold the better part of today's gains at the close.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 22, 2006, 02:52:48 AM
Bought VLO yesterday at 52.71.  Stop: a few pennies below 51.60.  Risk: a loss of 2-2½%.

"If at first you don't succeed, try, try again." 

Sold 10% of my VLO position at 54.94.   Gain: 4.2%

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 10:43:51 AM
The 53.36 "Buy Pivot" of the "W" Bottom has been taken out convincingly. 54.94 is IN PLAY .

The W-Bottom broke out this morning, and the 54.94 target MADE this afternoon.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 01:10:01 PM
WOW...that's a bit of a surprise to see a technical breakout of the Ascending Triangle, after this morning's breakout of the "W" Bottom. That's a DOUBLE breakout today.

I don't expect that to hold up on a closing basis

Nice day for VLO.  The Ascending Triangle held up at the close, so we've got:

Target #1 - 54.94 - W-Bottom Breakout Nov 29 - MADE Nov 29
Target #2 - 56.94 - Right Leg of W-Bottom Breakout Oct 13
Target #3 - 57.62 - Left Leg of W-Bottom Breakout Oct 13
Target #4 - 59.23 - Ascending Triangle Breakout Nov 29*

* That's IN PLAY as long as VLO trades above the 54.73-54.75 Breakout.

date=1164831614]
Bought VLO yesterday at 52.71.  Stop: a few pennies below 51.60.  Risk: a loss of 2-2½%.

"If at first you don't succeed, try, try again." 

Sold 10% of my VLO position at 54.94.   Gain: 4.2%

Quote

Sold another 20% at 57.06.  Gain: 8.3%

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 30, 2006, 04:24:47 AM
WOW...that's a bit of a surprise to see a technical breakout of the Ascending Triangle, after this morning's breakout of the "W" Bottom. That's a DOUBLE breakout today.

I don't expect that to hold up on a closing basis


Nice day for VLO. The Ascending Triangle held up at the close, so we've got:

Target #1 - 54.94 - W-Bottom Breakout Nov 29 - MADE Nov 29
Target #2 - 56.94 - Right Leg of W-Bottom Breakout Oct 13 MADE Dec 6
Target #3 - 57.62 - Left Leg of W-Bottom Breakout Oct 13
Target #4 - 59.23 - Ascending Triangle Breakout Nov 29*

* That's IN PLAY as long as VLO trades above the 54.73-54.75 Breakout.

Target #2:  56.94 MADE.   The last pattern on this 1-minute chart (I forgot to draw the lines) was a Symmetrical Triangle that put 57.08 IN PLAY, so I held out for a little more than the target (54.94)

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 06, 2006, 01:07:00 PM
Target #2:  56.94 MADE.   The last pattern on this 1-minute chart (I forgot to draw the lines) was a Symmetrical Triangle that put 57.08 IN PLAY, so I held out for a little more than the target (54.94)

Today's high was 57.09.  Whew...I cut that one a little close!    

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 06, 2006, 01:07:00 PM
Bought VLO yesterday at 52.71.  Stop: a few pennies below 51.60.  Risk: a loss of 2-2½%.

Sold 10% of my VLO position at 54.94.   Gain: 4.2%
Sold another 20% at 57.06.  Gain: 8.3%

Bought back the 20% for 55.06.  Stop on the entire postion: a CLOSE below 54.73.

I had a bit of good luck selling three cents below the recent top of 57.09.  There's a possibility that the Bullish Ascending Triangle (pattern in white) is going to morph into a Bear Channel, so I'm moving my stop on the trade to the 54.73-54.75 flat top of the pattern, which locks me into a winning trade from my 52.71 entry.

Re-entering at 55.06 on the 20% that I sold at 57.06 is a very good risk:reward.  It will cost me about ½% loss to find out if 54.75-54.73 is going to hold.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 08, 2006, 10:50:53 AM
Bought VLO yesterday at 52.71.  Stop: a few pennies below 51.60.  Risk: a loss of 2-2½%.

Sold 10% of my VLO position at 54.94.   Gain: 4.2%
Sold another 20% at 57.06.  Gain: 8.3%

Bought back the 20% for 55.06.  Stop on the entire postion: a CLOSE below 54.73.

Sold all of my VLO at 54.97.  Gain on the trade: 5%

We took out this morning's 54.99 low and have rallied to just below that.  We'll likely end the day on a Black Candle, and with the threat of this morphing into a Bear Channel, I decided to take the money.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 08, 2006, 03:39:51 PM
Sold all of my VLO at 54.97.  Gain on the trade: 5%

We took out this morning's 54.99 low and have rallied to just below that.  We'll likely end the day on a Black Candle, and with the threat of this morphing into a Bear Channel, I decided to take the money.

The dotted blue upward-sloping line represents the top of channel; the solid blue upward-sloping line represents the bottom of the channel.

The three successive closes below the bottom of the channel (formerly, an Ascending Triangle), suggests that we, indeed, got the bearish pattern morph.

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 30, 2006, 04:24:47 AM
The Ascending Triangle held up at the close, so we've got:

Target #1 - 54.94 - W-Bottom Breakout Nov 29 - MADE Nov 29
Target #2 - 56.94 - Right Leg of W-Bottom Breakout Oct 13 - MADE Dec 6
Target #3 - 57.62 - Left Leg of W-Bottom Breakout Oct 13
Target #4 - 59.23 - Ascending Triangle Breakout Nov 29*

* That's IN PLAY as long as VLO trades above the 54.73-54.75 Breakout.

VLO didn't hold the 54.73-54.75 breakout, and with the break of the channel(formerly the ascending line of the Ascending Triangle), Targets #3 and #4 are CANCELLED.

VLO closed Friday at 51.59, a penny below the lows of 51.60 and 51.78, at Blue #4 along the ascending line, so that's weak.

It looks short-term oversold, though, so a rally back to the broken channel could be on tap here.

Given the recent weakness since the early December high, I'd like to see VLO go back down to the autumn lows of 46.84 and 47.52 for a Right Leg of a three-month W-Bottom.

That would give VLO a much better base/pattern for a breakout above the middle, or pivot, of the W-Bottom, which is the December 6 high of 57.09.

In that event, the mid-60s would be IN PLAY (we'll be able to measure the target later, if that occurs).

I don't see the cute "pump" and "dump" up and down arrows on those charts everytime the stock goes up or down. Oh...i forgot, they are just applied to my stocks....... Sorry.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 08, 2006, 03:39:51 PM
Sold all of my VLO at 54.97.  Gain on the trade: 5%

We took out this morning's 54.99 low and have rallied to just below that.  We'll likely end the day on a Black Candle, and with the threat of this morphing into a Bear Channel, I decided to take the money.

The dotted blue upward-sloping line represents the top of channel; the solid blue upward-sloping line represents the bottom of the channel.

The three successive closes below the bottom of the channel (formerly, an Ascending Triangle), suggests that we, indeed, got the bearish pattern morph.

Target 50.23 MADE (the bottom of the channel), so we now have confirmation of our suspicion that the Ascending Triangle morphed into a Bear Channel.

46.47 also is IN PLAY, which is near the September/October lows.

If we get anything near that target, mid-February would be a nice intersection of price and time, and would make for a nice, broad base (five months) for a rally.

Mid-February would be about 52 trading sessions from the 57.09 high, the same amount of time it took for the rally from the 46.84 low to the 57.09 high.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 04, 2007, 06:00:09 AM
46.47 also is IN PLAY, which is near the September/October lows.

VLO continues to tank toward the target IN PLAY, and to the September/October lows, which were 46.84 and 47.52, respectively. 

Cramer is bearish on VLO, but he gave it a "pre-BOOYAH?" last night, if VLO hits the target area:

"Valero Energy (VLO - news - Cramer's Take - Rating): "ConocoPhillips (COP - news - Cramer's Take - Rating) announced disturbingly low margins on refining," which Cramer said doesn't bode well for refining company Valero. Cramer said Valero "can go as low as 47," and only then would he sanction it. "

Worth watching for at least a bounce, and possibly more, in that 46.47-47.52 area.

 

Valero Energy upgraded to "market perform"

Friday, January 12, 2007 3:45:48 AM ET
Bernstein

NEW YORK, January 12 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at Bernstein upgrade Valero Energy (VLO.NYS) from "underperform" to "market perform."