3SOF

Quote from: David Randolph on November 30, 2006, 07:01:00 PM
When the consolidation phase ends it will make another white marubozu to $10 or more. Volume is drying, and I guess that means there aren't much more shares for sale at current levels.

I agree that this is what is likely to happen, specifically another marubozu as opposed to just a gradual rise over time.  its a bit hard to explain, but the chart just has that "feel" to it, doesnt it?   

hi,
yes i thought it was going to make it today but i just got home and saw it at 903.
hmmm. three spikes above 920 ( don't like spikes) macd rolling over , 10ma rolling over.
my prediction now, ( i will go out on a limb) tomorrow it will definetly drop to at least the 10ma if  not lower to the 20 for a retrace and a bounce
maxi

hi,
a little more water on the fire . wonder if this will have an effect tomorrow
maxi

...at least this might explain the small drop of a few pennies:

...on Mad Money, Cramer -- who appeared distracted as he hardly answered the caller's question about CDC -- rang his cash register for both CDC and Baidu. Meaning...take profits...

His record is pretty mixed, as we all know...but it would've been alot nicer if he did just a little thoughtful analysis. Think he would've come up with a very different answer...at least for CDC.

Quote from: rickjust on December 04, 2006, 10:18:35 PM
hi,
a little more water on the fire . wonder if this will have an effect tomorrow
maxi

...at least this might explain the small drop of a few pennies:

...on Mad Money, Cramer -- who appeared distracted as he hardly answered the caller's question about CDC -- rang his cash register for both CDC and Baidu. Meaning...take profits...

His record is pretty mixed, as we all know...but it would've been alot nicer if he did just a little thoughtful analysis. Think he would've come up with a very different answer...at least for CDC.

It will likely have a small effect, but personally I have just come to realize that Cramer has an autopilot response to almost all Chinese stocks.  If its Chinese he usually just makes some comment about how he doesnt like Chinese stocks in general.

I like Cramer but always take him with a grain of salt.  He has been saying take profits on DIVX since around $23 I think.  But when its hit a double there will be a special segment where they air his first recommendation of it.  This happened recently with ATI, his stock of the year, which admittedly he did annoint as stock of the year, but mid year he kept saying sell.  Then Friday they have the flashback to when he recommended it 144% lower.  Even though the gap that recommendation never got filled an nobody could have made the full144%.  OK, Cramer rant off, I watch his show and learn from it, I admit, lol.

i see a limited downside, possibly a test of the 10 MA at around $8.85, but the upside is pretty good with break of $9.27

any thoughts people?

Tokyopua said:

QuoteI agree that this is what is likely to happen, specifically another marubozu as opposed to just a gradual rise over time.  its a bit hard to explain, but the chart just has that "feel" to it, doesnt it? 

And rickjust said:

Quotehi,
yes i thought it was going to make it today but i just got home and saw it at 903.
hmmm. three spikes above 920 ( don't like spikes) macd rolling over , 10ma rolling over.
my prediction now, ( i will go out on a limb) tomorrow it will definetly drop to at least the 10ma if  not lower to the 20 for a retrace and a bounce
maxi

Opposing views on the short term. I guess this is what makes a market ! It makes a market, but not my way to trade, as I refuse to look at the tape (or the ticker) to make trading decisions.

Cramer talked bearish on CHINA. I couldn't pay less attention to what he says ... I already subscribed to his service and I didn't like it at all. I saw a market average performance, with 14% in 5 years or so, about 100 different holdings and just trades around a core position. For example, he held, say 5,000 shares of MSFT and then he said: «buy 500 more today that it's down 1%». A few days later he would say: «sell those 500 now». But the core positions were always the same.

I also agree with Tokyopua's post describing how the media touts his recommendations. Of course they would never talk, for example, about this embarrassing article: The Winners of the New World (look at the date, the stocks, and the current price).

Anyway, it only happens to the ones who have an opinion and he sure has courage. I admire him for that and I've also been wrong, and I mean wrong, before.

Quote from: vic666 on December 05, 2006, 04:34:46 PM
i see a limited downside, possibly a test of the 10 MA at around $8.85, but the upside is pretty good with break of $9.27

any thoughts people?

Yes vic666, let's get back to CHINA. There has been some constraint in surpassing the $9.20 - $9.27 level, but if you look at the chart and the fundamentals, everything points north.

Later we need to put this into context, as I'm writing 11 pages of Reminiscences of a Stock Operator on the Members Corner, but for now let me just quote this from page 69:

«The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.»

I'll sit tight and continue holding CHINA.

"The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight"

David, thanks for the analysis, and how true is that quote you provided above!! so easy on paper, so hard on the mind...disciplien, discipline, discipline! it's all a mind game is what it is!

always learning and loving!

QuoteDavid, thanks for the analysis, and how true is that quote you provided above!! so easy on paper, so hard on the mind...disciplien, discipline, discipline! it's all a mind game is what it is!

always learning and loving!

Yes, this entire chapter 5 of Reminiscences contains priceless market wisdom. I'll write all 11 pages on the Members Corner for future reference (you can already find 3 pages there).

I disagree with your signature:

QuoteLong term investments are short-term investments that have gone wrong.

I would say: all trades start as short term trades, but good trades are long term. Don't expect to beat the market doing short term trading. Over time you'll just feed the brokerages.

How about another quote from Reminiscences?

«I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather, what I tried to do; for I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came. And I saw my stock kiting up ten points more and I sitting there with my four-point profit safe in my conservative pocket. They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.

Where I should have made twenty thousand dollars I made two thousand. That was what my conservatism did for me.»

CHINA looks like it is making a top. It sure looks like it. Until the next white marubozu takes the stock to $10 and everybody chases it on the way up.

The chart and the fundamentals are bullish. I'll ignore the tape. I'll refuse to consider intraday developments. I'll continue holding CHINA.

Quote from: vic666 on December 05, 2006, 08:00:45 PM
"The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight"
always learning and loving!

broke above resistance today.
maxi

Do you have it or did you lose your position rick?

Big volume on this bullish breakout day (no, you won't catch me again making intraday predictions, or I would say it will close around $10 )

i still have it,
and added a little at 919
max

Quote from: rickjust on December 07, 2006, 10:24:07 AM
i still have it,
and added a little at 919
max

Cool

If it wasn't for the general market weakness CHINA would probably have had a white marubozu towards $10.

But, the general market weakness existed, didn't it? So I need to consider it as a fact and don't make any excuses.

But I don't have to make any excuses. CHINA rose 3.7% today. It was a beautiful day. I have a 34% profit on the stock and I'll continue holding.

Quote from: David Randolph on December 07, 2006, 04:54:16 PM
If it wasn't for the general market weakness CHINA would probably have had a white marubozu towards $10.

But, the general market weakness existed, didn't it? So I need to consider it as a fact and don't make any excuses.

But I don't have to make any excuses. CHINA rose 3.7% today. It was a beautiful day. I have a 34% profit on the stock and I'll continue holding.

I agree that the market being weak later in the day was a factor in killing the marubozu candle. 

Also, there is a 3 cent microgap from the opening today that probably held back a number of traders.  I think without that little gap there would have been more upside.  Of course, the bottom of that gap can just provide another potential support when/if it gets filled (my money says its close enough to get filled unless some news comes out soon). 

But like you said in another post, at this rate it is more of a mental excercise to try to anticipate how and why things will happen in a certain way, given that with 34% profit there is the luxury to let the profits run 

QuoteAlso, there is a 3 cent microgap from the opening today that probably held back a number of traders.  I think without that little gap there would have been more upside.  Of course, the bottom of that gap can just provide another potential support when/if it gets filled (my money says its close enough to get filled unless some news comes out soon).

Yes, there was that micro-gap ... do you mean you sold and you'll try to buy back at $9.08 if/when the gap gets filled?

I hope you're lucky enough to do it, but you know, I don't think that is a sound long term way to speculate, since you're risking losing a $3 to $5 move to save $0.20 or $0.30.

Look at the mistake I made on NWACQ.PK, what a shame . Not buying because of a gap up and yesterday watching it fly another 48%

I'm starting to go deeper on the notion that I should invest on the main moves and forget about the short term fluctuations.

CHINA's main move is up, fundamentals support an even higher valuation, I'll continue holding it.