3SOF

The bottom rail of the channel that we've been discussing came in today at 3.10, which was the November 2 reaction low off the "Gap To Crap" high of 5.49.   

The 50 DMA is rising about five cents a day, so it's at about 3.00 today.

The low so far today is 3.03, so the channel broke, but it might have been with purpose: to tag to 50DMA, then rally, showing some sign of a washout to the downside.

So far, SIGA has come back to BID 3.14....ASK 3.15, but we really want to see something better than that, like a nice bullish hammer today, with a long tail, show a sign of an upside reversal.  Or, something bullish-looking tomorrow, like a Bullish Engulfing candle, etc.

Otherwise, as we also discussed, this simply could keep walking down the channel, tand then fail to the downside.

Good luck!

Quote from: Melf Elf on November 29, 2006, 04:26:26 AM
Problems:
3. It's a DECLINING channel, so SIGA "could" continue to "walk its way down the channel," continuing to go lower, yet still remain within the confines of the channel. 

That's proved to be a BIG problem.

SIGA keeps "slip sliding away," yet remains within the confines of the channel, keeping hope alive.

UGH.

The bottom of the channel now is at 3.05, just above yesterday's 3.03 low. The 200DMA was at 2.9923 yesterday.  It's rising four or five cents per day, so it should be in that 3.03-3.05 area, as well.

SIGA really, really, really needs to reverse to the upside here!

Please remember to use stops, if you're long.  This is only one stock.  "Don't let a reasonable loss turn into a disaster....live to play another day."

Good luck!

Bula...I forgot to say hi to you the other day.  Nice to see you posting again.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 05, 2006, 05:14:12 AM
[The bottom of the channel now is at 3.05, just above yesterday's 3.03 low. The 200DMA was at 2.9923 yesterday.  It's rising four or five cents per day, so it should be in that 3.03-3.05 area, as well.

This morning's low is 3.04

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SIGA really, really, really needs to reverse to the upside here!

Something like this...  

It needs to hold up.

i know it too early too celebrate but this looks alot better than 3.07 
great post Melf Elf- keep them coming!!

Melf Elf, where is the top of the channel? Would be nice to close above that ....

Quote from: for3J1M on December 05, 2006, 12:05:39 PM
i know it too early too celebrate but this looks alot better than 3.07 

for3JiM,

Right.  We'll hold back on the party hats until we see how this rally holds up.  

There was a nice volume increase on the rally off the 3.04 low, back to UNCH, then players saw the possibility of a reversal of the bottom off the channel and the 50DMA, and BIG volume came in on the spike to 3.39.

Very nice.

SIGA might need to go back and fill that gap, at 3.16-3.18, but it "shouldn't" do much more than that on the downside.  Enough is ENOUGH, with all of the "slip sliding" that we've witnessed.

Time to rally, dang it!  

Quote from: Se7en on December 05, 2006, 12:16:19 PM
Melf Elf, where is the top of the channel? Would be nice to close above that ....

Se7en,

The top of the channel comes in today at 3.436, so a close at 3.44, or better, would take that out.  That doesn't need to occur today, but soon.

Good luck, everyone!

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 05, 2006, 12:22:54 PM
Se7en,

The top of the channel comes in today at 3.436, so a close at 3.44, or better, would take that out.  That doesn't need to occur today, but soon.

Good luck, everyone!

SIGA has hit the home stretch, now at BID 3.43...ASK 3.44... 

Good effort, but she Double Topped at 3.45, and closed at 3.39, which had been the high on the day until the late after breakout into the 3.40s (those last two trades with the (T) won't count).

Volume was at least 3 times average daily volume, so that was good to see on the upside reversal.  Overall, a good day.

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It's "On Fire" here.  Somebody just bought 27,500 shares on a gap up from 3.53 to 3.58 (see chart below), so there's some buying interest coming in.

It would be good for SIGA to settle down now, and form a base for a rally back to resistance.

Our 3.20 target from the triangle breakdown had MADE at that point, and 3.58 was the lows of the flag (the next pattern on this chart).

"Former support at 3.58 became exact resistance," as it should in a downtrend, so 3.58 is Key Resistance now.

Unfortunately, rather than "settle down" and "form a base for a rally" after that print of 27,500 shares at 3.58 resistance, SIGA continued to "walk down the channel," and it made a new low of 3.03, at the 50DMA.

UGH. 

On the strength of yesterday's reversal off the bottom of the channel, AND at the 50 DMA, AND on good volume, SIGA "should" be able to rally back to Key Resistance, at 3.58.  If it can't, and if it starts looking wimpy, giving back most of yesterday's gains, it likely is going lower.

It needs to do something like rally to 3.58, establishing a neckline for a Bullish Inverse H&S, pull back for a Right Shoulder, then breakout convincingly, above 3.58.

If that were to occur, 4.14 would be IN PLAY.

But, we're ahead of ourselves here....SIGA first needs to get to 3.58!     

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I am finally out 

Quote from: la-onda on December 11, 2006, 12:07:04 PM
I am finally out 

Applause for using a stop on it, Oliver.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 05, 2006, 05:14:12 AM
Please remember to use stops, if you're long.  This is only one stock.  "Don't let a reasonable loss turn into a disaster....live to play another day."

also put on my watchlist
Biotech News: SIGA Technologies Inc. is Added to Watch List

Monday Dec 11 2006 12:52:36 EST

Dec 11, 2006 (M2 PRESSWIRE via COMTEX) --

Say "ahhh" instead of "ow!" If development-stage SIGA Technologies (NASDAQ: SIGA) has its way, painful vaccinations could become a thing of the past. The company is working on technology to administer vaccines directly through the mucus-lined surfaces -- mouth, nose, lungs, and gastrointestinal and urogenital tracts -- that are the usual entry points for most infectious agents. It focuses on vaccines, novel anti-infectives, and antibiotics for infectious diseases; its lead candidates are vaccines for bio-defense. In 2006 SIGA made breakthrough progress on a smallpox treatment, which completely prevented the disease in preliminary primate trials. The advancement led to funding from the National Institutes of Health.

Shares were down 7% in anticipation of the revamp to Project Bioshield.

Next week the Senate is expected to revamp Project Bioshield, a $5.6 billion spending plan meant to shore up the nation's defenses against a bioterror attack.

The original law, enacted in June 2002, was supposed to provide inducements for biotech companies to work on vaccines and antidotes for threats such as anthrax and Ebola. However, the structure of the bill actually served as a disincentive.

That's because companies weren't going to get paid until the products they developed were approved for use. Large biotechs such as Amgen and Genentech had little interest in the government's program. After all, they had businesses to run.

At the same time, several smaller firms were salivating over the possibility of large contracts and eagerly signed up. The problem has been that participating companies have had a difficult time successfully developing products and getting through the period before a treatment is successfully launched, when cash is going out but none is coming in.

The newest bill, sponsored by Sen. Richard Burr (R., N.C.) will, among other things, add $1 billion to the program to fund companies prior to product approval. That should ease the financial strain for firms developing products that the government deems essential to protecting our nation's health.

Below are some of the publicly traded companies that are researching ways to protect the American public from bioterror threats.

A company still doing research is Siga Technologies, whose SIGA-246 smallpox antiviral is in preclinical studies. The company claims SIGA-246 is the first drug ever to demonstrate 100% protection against human smallpox in a primate trial.

Understand that smallpox is considered by health authorities to have been eradicated, but samples of the virus remain held in labs. Were a case to appear today, it would be "the result of an intentional act," the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says on its Web site. "A single confirmed case of smallpox would be considered an emergency."

http://new.quote.com/stocks/story.action?id=MTO345u4404

I called Investor Relations today and left a message enquiring why the stock price is plummeting. Tom Konatich (acting CEO) called me back later in the day to reassure me that nothing has changed and that they don't see any fundamental reasons for the drop. He said that he thinks it may be tax selling and that they might consider putting out some information soon to reassure the investors.

Do anyone of you experienced traders know anything about typical trends during December tax loss selling, especially for microcaps like Siga on the downtrends after a major breakout? Any chance for an early Santa Claus rally?

SIGA is in a free fall, maybe closing the gap, who knows ... 

I'm  keeping an eye on it and will try to get back in, still think this one has much potential!

Se7en, i agree.    i am also watching closely.  their annual meeting is december 19th. do you think that will help us turn around or a least find a bottom?