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Quote from: stocky on December 12, 2006, 03:50:25 PM
Nice pick David.

Thanks stocky, nice to see you

Indeed, GOAM is a nice pick, but of course, it won't go up everyday, no stock does.  Although it looks easy to sell high to buy on reactions, I assure you it is very hard and the most probable outcome of doing that is that one loses his position, hence losing a big swing, maybe of a magnitude of 400 or 500%

In the end, a short term trader looks at what he made, and says: "great, I made 50% trading this stock. Yet, the stock is up 400% since I first bought it, what a shame".

At least that's my expectation, given the technicals and the fundamentals.  Always remember that GOAM is still just a $21 M market cap company, so another $9 on the share price is worth just $21 M, and that's easy to justify by the current fundamentals.

I'll keep on holding GOAM.

David,

How you doing? Just read the entire thread on GOAM...excellent analysis on the fundamentals...applauds to you mate, and thanks for that suggestion you made on buying GOAM and "fuggabaouid" until early 2007 - easier said than done though. I'll definitely look intoit.

For a company that has such a small float, I agree it ain't a good idea to time the trade...just get in, trust the fundamentals and hold on.

One thing I've begun to take notice of in trading is the crucial "10 EMA"...it's a pretty potent moving average and comes to great significance on short term moves...for example, a stock breaks out of a trend..and we all know it typically pulls back for a day or two...before going higher...however, we never know how much it pulls back...and that's where I've noticed the 10 EMA to be of great help.

I've also looked at GOAM's chart and the 10 EMA stands out as a short term support level, especially when the stock makes some major breakouts. (when the 10 EMA doesnt hold, the 20 EMA is major support level, and it works really well on timing entries and exits).

I'll look to get into GOAM near the 10 EMA (I know your suggestion is to not try and time GOAM)...but will not necessarily wait for it to reach there. As they say, I dont wanna lose dollars while tryin to save some pennies. 

Here's a chart on GOAM (forgive me for putting it on DIVX thread) and how the 10 and 20 EMA come into the picture.

I do remember David's suggestion on VPHM [The Kind I want] when it was pushing and pulling and in the end those guys made real good money whom resisted quick IN and OUT. I wish I was one of them. Hope that I have learned my lessons.

Hi vic666, I saw you short term trading DIVX, and the stock is beating you (as it would beat anybody that tries to make a lot of short term trades in it).

My advice continues to be, buy and hold GOAM for some months. But I wish you good luck

QuoteI do remember David's suggestion on VPHM [The Kind I want] when it was pushing and pulling and in the end those guys made real good money whom resisted quick IN and OUT. I wish I was one of them. Hope that I have learned my lessons.

Memory is very important stocky. You need to remember your mistakes to learn from them. You're on the right track

About GOAM I suggest that you go to the stock's Yahoo board and read zibeaster's comments. He's making a tremendous research effort on GOAM, and I have little doubts that he's right.

I know a good analyst when I see one. And zibeaster is good. Just don't consider too much of his short term comments, or you may lose your position. In fact, he may also lose his position if he focus too much on the short term.

GOAM corrected for two days on lower volume. I expect another white marubozu to take the stock to new highs anytime soon, perhaps still in the current week. It doesn't matter anyway, as I said, I'm not planning to sell GOAM over the next 3 to 6 months.

...trying to run...just need a bit more volume

Bravo David. Indeed a nice pick

Quite puzzling end. May be David can explain.

My concern is all of the bag holders that are left over when this runs up like today and leaves a 20% gain on the table.  Must be some pretty unhappy people in that 20% space!

Here's how I see GOAM. Momentum traders love it because it's moving up, but they can't make a dime trading it. Bagholders like me show a 56% profit.

In the end, short term traders made 10 or 20 trades in GOAM trying to catch all swings. They possibly made 20 or 30%, or perhaps even 50% profits (most of them will lose money, especially if they also short the stock). Bagholders like me will make at least 300%, with much less effort and commission costs.

Today's candle on GOAM reminds me yesterday's RAD candle. Look here:



Yet, instead of down like momentum traders would expect, the stock was up strongly today. This is quite a bullish behavior, I remember stocks acting like this on the 1999 early 2000 raging bull. They were so high that people took profits/went short on the last hour of the session. But the next day stocks would open higher and push to new highs.

This way, stocks rise a lot, but the fast money only grabs a small piece of the moves.

You can say "GOAM closed 16% off the intraday high" or you can say "GOAM closed up 7% on the day and 7.13% above the opening price".

I see these corrections as necessary on the way up. They don't surprise me in anyway, I expect them to happen. I may know the stock will go down 10% in two hours or so and that won't make me sell to try to grab it lower. Because that could make me lose my position and the certainty of a big killing.

I'll continue holding GOAM.

I am seeing that David has now a moving influence on stocks. Not necessarily bad if you are on board. Time to renew my subscription.

Quote from: David Randolph on December 14, 2006, 06:51:48 PM


Today's candle on GOAM reminds me yesterday's RAD candle. Look here:

This was a nice example of how a strong upper shadow can be bullish, thanks for pointing it out David.  This is one of the few areas where I take issue with many candlestick technicians who always seem to view the long upper shadow as bearish.  Especially when it comes with volume in the way it did today for BFLY, I think there are cases where it represents a "minimal potential" for the stock, i.e. the stock can soon go at least that high again, and probably higher. 

So I could be wrong, but it feels like a guarnatee that GOAM and BFLY will soon reach at least the highs they hit today.  Steve Nison always says you have to view candles within the context of how the overall chart looks, and that is why I feel the way I do for these two stocks in particular.

Quote from: tokyopua on December 14, 2006, 08:12:46 PM
This was a nice example of how a strong upper shadow can be bullish, thanks for pointing it out David.  This is one of the few areas where I take issue with many candlestick technicians who always seem to view the long upper shadow as bearish. 

tokyopua, glad you point that out...from what I've read, the candlestick with the long upper shadow is counted as bearish "only if and when it comes after a long uptrending move", unlike the ones that you point out, which happened right after or pretty close to after a breakout.

of course, in the next few days, the market will tell us what is right, and we shall listen and learn. 

Thanks for your comments vic666 and Tokyopua

Look how GOAM is 4.8% higher on the pre-market (as we predicted), it just kills short term momentum players.

(anyway, I shouldn't make intraday comments myself, they can only lead to confusion and anxiety. Going to study some other stocks)

For outstanding fundamental analysis of GOAM, please read zibeaster's blog:

zibeaster's Stock Blog

All his predictions are very conservative, except the way he multiplies his quarterly EPS numbers by four (four quarters) and then by an earnings multiple of 20 to reach a price per share (PPS) estimate.

I guess he shouldn't be so conservative on IPRS and VRS revenue growth estimates (he's cutting fair estimates in half) and should use an earnings multiple of ten to fifteen times instead. PPS estimates would be about the same.

Anyway, he sees GOAM at $38.69 in Q1 2007, and what can I do, I agree with him. If you carefully read all the analysis, open all the links (especially this investor's presentation) you clearly see that this is almost a sure thing. He nailed it.

Technically the stock was up again, nevermind the candlestick. It can be a $11 - $12 stock next week, but it doesn't matter, because my business with GOAM is to sit tight with it on my lap.

David, thanks for sharing zibeaster's blog link...it's a fascinating analysis for sure! i'm beginning to think may be i should heed your earlier advice to grow my accnt....buy GOAM and forget about it till Q1 2007.

but again...nothing's a sure thing in the market....especially tryin to hold thru' earnings...when all that matters is the "market perception"...not the facts presented by the company.

from the numbers in that link, it sure seems like a bargain even at these levels...allow me to think about it. 

but then again, look at XING...it's pretty undervalued fundamentally...and it's been that way for a while...shouldn't we assume the market knows something in case of "severely undervalued" stocks? just wondering out loud! 

another thing I just noticed (after going thru' the slide show)...there's a table with a list of "relay providers"...and it has in it names like AT&T, Sprint, MCI and others...who seem to be providing either the same or even other additional services like GOAM...so where does competition fit into the pictures, against those big players?

QuoteDavid, thanks for sharing zibeaster's blog link...it's a fascinating analysis for sure! i'm beginning to think may be i should heed your earlier advice to grow my accnt....buy GOAM and forget about it till Q1 2007.

Yes vic666, you should do that. The stock is already 14% higher than when I told you (and 66% higher than when I bought), but there's still plenty of upside.

Quotebut again...nothings a sure thing in the market....especially tryin to hold thru' earnings...when all that matters is the "market perception"...not the facts presented by the company.

Earnings won't be out until February 2007, you don't need to worry about that.

Quotebut then again, look at XING...it's pretty undervalued fundamentally...and it's been that way for a while...shouldn't we assume the market knows something in case of "severely undervalued" stocks? just wondering out loud!

Completely different situations. XING is a Chinese company that depends on strong economic growth to keep up with expectations. Economic growth (or the lack of) has no influence on GOAM's prospects and there weren't any expectations built into the stock price, because there are zero Wall Street analysts covering the stock. XING is a $300 M market cap company, GOAM is just $22 M. But both companies are undervalued and they're both heading higher if you consider the long term trend. Undervalued stocks don't go up everyday, not even every week or every month.

Quoteanother thing I just noticed (after going thru' the slide show)...there's a table with a list of "relay providers"...and it has in it names like AT&T, Sprint, MCI and others...who seem to be providing either the same or even other additional services like GOAM...so where does competition fit into the pictures, against those big players?

Well, IP Relay and Video Relays services are just peanuts for those big companies, so they haven't invested to improve their service. GOAM's service works much better, and that explains why GOAM's market share of the IP relay service has gone up from 5% in Q1 2006, to 12.5% in Q3 2006.

GOAM is totally focused on the deaf/hard hearing/mute/speech impaired community, the big players have bigger fish to fry.

As for the size of the market, on page 1 of this thread, you find this:

QuoteThe VRS market is almost 3 times larger than the IP relay service (IPRS) market (VRS was $76 M in Q3, IPRS was $28 M), and VRS is growing 155% a year, compared with 75% for IPRS.

Of course, this growth rate won't go on indefinitely, but I'm sure it will be very high at least until 2010. So, GOAM is entering what I estimate to be a $608 M market in 2007. If it grabs just 10% of market share (entirely possible, since it has 12.5% market share on the IPRS), it will have $60 M more in revenues to add to the $27 M estimate for the IPRS. That would be an $87 M revenue estimate for 2007, and GOAM's current market cap is just $13.6 M.

There's nothing better to do in this market than to buy and hold GOAM.

But of course, there will be ups and downs, I'm not sure you're prepared to follow my advice. Once one enters the gamble of short term trading (nobody knows it is a gamble while playing it) it is very hard to get out. As you said in one of your posts, one needs confidence in his method to win, and you won't win just following my advice, you need to understand and trust the method.

Or else you would have to be new to the markets and know that you don't know anything, which clearly isn't the case.

I'll just do my job and you'll do yours, so I say: There's nothing better to do in this market than to buy and hold GOAM.

Good luck