3SOF

The last 3 or 4 calls Cramer got for DIVX he kept saying "ring the register", but today he was back to being 100% bullish, said it is the next Akamai, like "son of Akamai", like Ghandi II back and bigger than ever, I like the stock, etc. and that it goes to its high of $31 again before end of the year.  The guy did call it as a buy from the very first day of its IPO, good to see he got his sense back 

BTW, lets hope he is right, AKAM has nearly tripled in the last 18 months!

Quote from: tokyopua on December 12, 2006, 12:41:36 AM
The last 3 or 4 calls Cramer got for DIVX he kept saying "ring the register", but today he was back to being 100% bullish, said it is the next Akamai, like "son of Akamai", like Ghandi II back and bigger than ever, I like the stock, etc. and that it goes to its high of $31 again before end of the year.  The guy did call it as a buy from the very first day of its IPO, good to see he got his sense back 

BTW, lets hope he is right, AKAM has nearly tripled in the last 18 months!

Hi toky
Yes, the «Cramer effect» on DIVX has been very substantial... He totally pumped it in the day we decided to buy it for 3SOF (that gap up on the 4th candle) and made us bought it 2$ higher than expected... he also bashed it a few days later, and call it a buy several times again... Now DIVX is standing near the ascending support, and we are waiting for an upside reaction, Cramer may help that happen a little faster But to say the truth, I don't like his effect on the stock, I see DIVX going much higher than just $31, and he may decide to bash DIVX again above $31, hopefully, the (real) reasons behind DIVX rally will prevail

Update:
DIVX is consolidating this price range near the support level, like we said before, we expect an upside reaction at any moment soon.

Looking back to that article from IBD:

Quote from: Ramsburg on December 06, 2006, 01:46:37 AM
But perhaps the biggest danger on the horizon for DivX are the deep pockets and big know-how of the competition. DivX faces the likes of Apple Computer (NASDAQ:AAPL - News), Google, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT - News), News Corp. (NYSE:NWS - News), Sony (NYSE:SNE - News) and YahooYHOO.

Honestly, this is the only part of the article I don't really agree I see this «biggest danger on the horizon» as an underlying opportunity for DIVX, as any of this «deep pockets» may want to buy DIVX instead, I mean, if DIVX comes to be the «standard», or lets just say, if any of these companies believe that DIVX may come to be the standard... they will not fight the standard, they will want to own the standard
Anyway, we'll just keep holding «the standard»

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

bought DIVX on break of yesterday's high at $28.35 (a few cents above ideal entry, but I'm ok with it).

The plan is to hold it and ride the uptrending channel. will cut losses below yesterday's low of $27.36 

holding DIVX as per my plan.

to speak the truth, I hate the short term trading strategy even though that's what I've commiteed to of late...reason being, my portfolio is quite small and I wanna bring it up to a decent level before being able to buy 2-3 stocks and holding them anywhere from a week to a month or 2 months. now that is how I like to trade.

anyways, I hope to gte started on implementing my favorite trading strategy early part of next year...lemme get my accnt up.

one thing I have mangaed to do with this short term strategy is to cut losses quickly (unlike in the past)...of course, the downside is it doesn;t give me much wiggle room.

damn...trading ain;t an easy game...untile you get a feel for it and get confident 

Hi vic666

Want to make your small account grow? Buy GOAM, close your eyes and ears to the market and sell it in the 2nd quarter of 2007.

At least that's what I would do, not short term trading. Good luck

Hi Vic666,

I've moved your post about GOAM in reply to David to David's GOAM topic:
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7673.msg80763#msg80763

regards

Update:
DIVX continues to test the ascending support line... Nothing to update at this point.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

got stopped out at $27.32....a 3.3% loss, but I can live with it. the chart today showed lower lows than the last 2 trading days...for those holding. I wish you the best and hope it turns around for you.

hmm...got back in on break of yesterday's high of $28.55, a penny above to be precise.

it's one of those days when DIVX reversed intraday from it's lows and from break of yesterday's and the day before's low, to go higher...inspite of a flat to down general market today.

Hi Vic666,
Yesterday, that low at $27.25 was cruel... it was a trap simulating the breakdown of the ascending support. Anyway, DIVX behaviour can be sometimes very volatile, so the best way of dealing with it is by having some extra room. I wish you success with this position!

Update:
DIVX tested once again the support line, this time with a significant volatility and an interesting intraday move. This could be at last the upside reaction we've been waiting for... the short term range was not broke to the upside yet, but I'm looking forward for some nice price developments now.

Trading Plan:
Hold DIVX

Best regards,

Thanks Ramsburg! I analyzed where I could have gone wrong with my stop loss price (place just below the prior day's low of $27.35....at $27.31). I think I know what I did wrong:

I overlooked the fact that the last few days of trading had no defined trned (up or down)...it was a sideways trading zone, consolidating around the $27-28 area. Under such circumstances when there is no defined trend (short term of course), and when there is a clear congestion sideways pattern, the stop must be placed below the low of the congestion zone.

In this case, it would have been $26.76 or just a bit below $27..either way.

I gotta learn from the mistake...and this time...I'm hoping the trend will sustain. But if it were to drop back to the low $27's or even just below that..you know I ain't smiling. 

Quote from: vic666 on December 14, 2006, 08:19:30 AM
Thanks Ramsburg! I analyzed where I could have gone wrong with my stop loss price (place just below the prior day's low of $27.35....at $27.31). I think I know what I did wrong......

Vic, the other thing you can do is use Average True Range (ATR) over say 10 to 14 days. That'll show you how much volatility a stock has (regardless of where it is in it's channel / pattern). Then multiply it by whatever you are comfortable with (greater than 1 at least) and set stop accordingly. DIVX ATR (14 days) is $1.65. Immediately you would see your stop is in the danger zone of intraday noise.

DIVX News: Not ground breaking, just informative and indicative of direction

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Dec. 14, 2006--DivX, Inc. (NASDAQ:DIVX) announced
today that it will join the Russell 3000(R) Index and the small-cap Russell
2000(R) Index when Russell Investment Group reconstitutes its family of U.S.
indexes on December 15. Russell recently posted a list of additions to its
indexes on www.russell.com.


Jordan Greenhall, co-founder and CEO of DivX, said, "The Russell Indexes have a
history as respected tools used by investors to track the market and its various
movements and trends. We are encouraged by the increasing validation from the
investment community of both our solid business growth and our larger mission to
build a better media future across the digital landscape."


Russell indexes are widely used by investment managers and institutional
investors for index funds and as benchmarks for both passive and active
investment strategies. More than $2.5 trillion in assets currently are
benchmarked to them. Investment managers who oversee these funds purchase shares
of member stocks according to that company's weighting in the particular index.

this can only be construed as a positive developement. don't all these index funds have to buy this stock now?  we'll see.  soxguy

Quote from: AussieTrader on December 14, 2006, 08:28:18 AM

Vic, the other thing you can do is use Average True Range (ATR) over say 10 to 14 days. That'll show you how much volatility a stock has (regardless of where it is in it's channel / pattern). Then multiply it by whatever you are comfortable with (greater than 1 at least) and set stop accordingly. DIVX ATR (14 days) is $1.65. Immediately you would see your stop is in the danger zone of intraday noise.

Aussie, how u been doing mate?
I hear what you are saying about the ATR...but clarify this - from what price point are you suggesting I place my stop loss based on the ADR of $1.65? It cannot be from my buy point, coz the market doesn't care at what price I bought in. If it were gonna be based on Monday's closing price of $27.50'ish, that means my stop would be in the high $25's...and placing my stop there would be useless because I see $26.76 as the low of the sideways trading zone from the last few weeks.

simply put - what reference point would be my basis to pick my stop loss based on ADR?

Thanks for ur comments!  

The ATR by its very nature is an average of the daily range top to bottom. What it tells you is that on a trading day DIVX can move (up or down) by $1.65 and, that that movement would not be considered unusual. How you use that information is up to you. Personally,  I would not put a stop within that ATR number based on my entry point. No the market doesn't care on your entry price only you do (so pretend you are the market and calculate from your price). If the ATR stop puts protection way below known support or channel then I would pass on entering the trade.

I am not saying its a perfect way, just another approach to consider. Whipsaw exits are always a danger.

Good luck