3SOF

nice facts:
http://investor.bluefly.com/media/bluefly_cowen_presentation_120706.pdf

nice chart:

bfly is more a trader stock or not ?

anyway macd hist is very up...i never buy stocks with a high macd hist....no way...

I put BFLY on watch last week as it passed my STEPS trigger http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7595.msg80127#msg80127

As I started to look more deeply I nearly checked it in the bin as on face value I saw MASSIVE dilution up to 129M shares (from 17M or so). But wait, that was due to 2 new investors pumping in $50M (and gaining seats on the board) as well as SOROS Fund exchanging preferred shares for common. So in that 129M SOROS (that's George Soros by the way) has 39% and the other 2 investors 48%. So 87% tied up in key investors.

What else? increase profit, increase margins, increase sales penetration, going into Q4 usually their best qtr (can be 2X Q3), their first $1M sales day Hmmm they did $16M in Q3 and here they do $1M in 1 day. I think there is a fundamental shift going on here.

Ok, chart set up nicely on the pullback volume shrunk, support catching up. All my STEPS criteria met.

So took position today at $1.19, I combined my pullback and breakout position as I saw buyers were lining up and sellers had the ask up high. I wasn't expecting such an extreme movement, but hey I like that. Initial stop is now at my entry price.

Quote from: AussieTrader on December 14, 2006, 10:50:28 AM
I put BFLY on watch last week as it passed my STEPS trigger http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7595.msg80127#msg80127

As I started to look more deeply I nearly checked it in the bin as on face value I saw MASSIVE dilution up to 129M shares (from 17M or so). But wait, that was due to 2 new investors pumping in $50M (and gaining seats on the board) as well as SOROS Fund exchanging preferred shares for common. So in that 129M SOROS (that's George Soros by the way) has 39% and the other 2 investors 48%. So 87% tied up in key investors.

What else? increase profit, increase margins, increase sales penetration, going into Q4 usually their best qtr (can be 2X Q3), their first $1M sales day Hmmm they did $16M in Q3 and here they do $1M in 1 day. I think there is a fundamental shift going on here.

Ok, chart set up nicely on the pullback volume shrunk, support catching up. All my STEPS criteria met.

So took position today at $1.19, I combined my pullback and breakout position as I saw buyers were lining up and sellers had the ask up high. I wasn't expecting such an extreme movement, but hey I like that. Initial stop is now at my entry price.

Applaud mate!  Thanks to your call to get David in on this with 3SOF I also got in just in the nick of time at 1.19.  You have a hot hand with these STEPS plays.

I too was surprised by the explosive move, but that must have something to do with the confluence of 1.23 being both the STEPS breakout and a breakout of the old resistance.

Quote from: tokyopua on December 14, 2006, 11:10:15 AM
Applaud mate!  Thanks to your call to get David in on this with 3SOF I also got in just in the nick of time at 1.19.  You have a hot hand with these STEPS plays.

I too was surprised by the explosive move, but that must have something to do with the confluence of 1.23 being both the STEPS breakout and a breakout of the old resistance.

Yeh, I have been fortunate in some recent entries

BFLY is now an official 3SoF pick and quite right too as the opportunity looks great.
Consolidating now above the breakout / resistance (now support as it gave a quick toucj to it )point on small volume (relative to that 4M breakout day that is) My expectation is another nice continuation move that will ultimately take BFLY above $1.60 will happen sooner rather than later.

Added to my position at 1.26. Now averaging 1.32; really like how it has been trading and don't think it'll have any trouble hitting that 1.60 high again.

Anyone have any thoughts on the chart? 

Quote from: nutsterrt on December 20, 2006, 07:05:55 PM
Anyone have any thoughts on the chart? 

I'm in the same boat with you.  I bought and waiting for the next move.   From my observation is that these "hot" stocks need to stay above the 9ema.  Hopefully it holds above 1.20 tomorrow or I will dump and move on.

Quote from: kslifka on December 20, 2006, 07:13:48 PM
I'm in the same boat with you.  I bought and waiting for the next move.   From my observation is that these "hot" stocks need to stay above the 9ema.  Hopefully it holds above 1.20 tomorrow or I will dump and move on.

Interesting...would that be an intraday price level or a closing level?

Quote from: nutsterrt on December 20, 2006, 07:22:29 PM

Quote from: kslifka on December 20, 2006, 07:13:48 PM
I'm in the same boat with you.  I bought and waiting for the next move.   From my observation is that these "hot" stocks need to stay above the 9ema.  Hopefully it holds above 1.20 tomorrow or I will dump and move on.

Interesting...would that be an intraday price level or a closing level?

I won't set a stop below 1.20 but will watch closely.  I pretty much believe tomorrow is "do or die" for BFLY.  It needs to move above that downsloping line connecting the tops of those candles over the past few days.  That's not to say it's over, but any move to the upside would take longer than I want to hold the stock.

BFLY touched support at 1.20 and is slllllllllllllowwwwly coming back.  I would like to see approach 1.30 and hold.

Does it seem to you that there's a lot of buying/covering 'interest' today, but very few shares available at these prices? To me, that would indicate we may see a move up today...?

Just seems like every time the ask moves down, the number of shares on the bid side increases.

Well, not a lot of progress today but I don't think all hope is lost just yet. Here are my thoughts on BFLY at close today, and why I think things may be looking up from here...



First and foremost, today's activity gave us a bullish inverted hammer. While it doesn't necessarily mean a rapid turnaround, the high of the day (and the end of the handle) engulfed yesterday's ugly candle and actually exceeded yesterday's highs, which would tell me we aren't ready to let BFLY die just yet.  And, as kslifka pointed out, BFLY still closed above the current EMA9 support of 1.21.

Second on my list is the fact we are still moving ever closer to that infamous Golden Cross level. Assuming prices stay at or above where they are now, the official cross should happen sooner or later, and I would hope we would see some upside as a result.

Next, RSI. The RSI has, in the last two sessions, moved below 70, though not by much.  For me, while this is still now 'low,' it is an improvement over the near-80 number we saw a week ago, and suggests to me that there is ownership interest, and it is no longer out of control.

Finally, the MACD. At this point, the MACD is the only indicator that makes me a little nervous.  If the two indicators do again meet, I hope that we see a bounce and not some kind of bearish cross. The MACD hist. is giving up a little, which makes me think that the current activity isn't as out of control as it may have been a week ago, but hasn't fallen into the negative, which I suppose is a good thing.

Fundamentally speaking, the company is improving greatly. In fact, I even saw some free advertising on the Today show today. The stock recently posted its first ever $1MM single-day sales number, and many expect the company to be profitable by the February earnings release. Following last year's holiday season, the company did release preliminary sales numbers about a month prior to earnings release. Assuming that happens again, and the company maintains the 30-40% Y-O-Y sales increases they have seen so far (i.e. Sept.-Nov.), it could boast well for the stock this time around.

Anyway, all just my two cents, and since I'm still relatively new, I'd love to get some feedback. Good luck everyone 

Anyone have thoughts on BFLY today? Looks like we basically ended up with a Doji, and DID still keep it above the 9-EMA, so I haven't lost hope yet. Anyone else think this bearish trend is nearing its end?

Would like to see a little more volume, as well. Of course, today was slow across the market, but this one just sat still most of the session.

Bluefly up almost 11% currently