3SOF

www.stockcharts.com is down, isn't it? I can't see today's copper chart.

As for TGB's chart, there wasn't any change, I'm still expecting it to breakout above the medium term resistance trendline you can see on the chart below. Moving averages are coming up to provide support.

I'll continue holding TGB.

 I'm hoping for some good news today.
I have had TGB for a while, so a move up would be very welcome.




Taseko to Release Fiscal 2006 Year End Results on December 18, 2006

Dec 13, 2006 13:33:03 (ET)

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, Dec 13, 2006 (MARKET WIRE via COMTEX) -- Taseko Mines Limited ("Taseko" or the "Company") (TGB, Trade ), a mining exploration, development and production company, will release its fourth quarter and annual earnings results on Monday, December 18, 2006 after market close and will host a conference call on Tuesday, December 19, 2006 at 11:00 AM Eastern Time (8:00 AM Pacific Time) to discuss these results. The conference call may be accessed by dialing (866)831-6270 in Canada and the United States, or (617)213-8858 internationally, using the passcode 46916913. A live and archived audio webcast will also be available at www.tasekomines.com in the Corporate Events section of the Investor Centre.

The conference call will be archived for later playback until January 19, 2007 and can be accessed by dialing (888)286-8010 or (617)801-6888 and using the passcode 72687670.

QuoteI'm hoping for some good news today.
I have had TGB for a while, so a move up would be very welcome.

I guess you had the news you we're hoping for cumulina

Taseko Announces Year End & Q4 Results

«For the year ended September 30, 2006, Taseko's cash flow from operations was $55.4 million and earnings were $32.9 million or $0.29 per share ($0.26 per share fully diluted), as compared to negative cash flow of $1.8 million and earnings of $23.3 million or $0.23 per share ($0.21 per share fully diluted) in fiscal 2005.

For the fourth quarter of 2006, earnings were $19.1 million or $0.16 per share.»

This means TGB's 2006 trailing earnings multiple is $2.51/$0.26 = 9.65. But, watch this closely:

«For the fourth quarter of 2006, earnings were $19.1 million or $0.16 per share.»

This means the company made $0.16 of those $0.26 just in the 4th quarter. If this net profit margin performance continues through 2007 the company will show 2007 EPS of $0.64, and then the forward earnings multiple would be only $2.51/$0.64 = 3.92. For the stock to get to a fair earnings multiple of 16 it would need to rise to (16/3.92)*$2.51 = $10.24 next year.

This was by far the best quarter ever for TGB, going back to 1996. When I say by far I say this quarter was more than two times better than the second best quarter ever.

Technically the stock touched the 50 and 200 days simple moving averages supports yesterday, with people selling because they feared the quarterly results. They were wrong when they sold. I see TGB easily blowing the $2.74 - $2.80 resistance level this week. It would be very hard for me to explain the market reaction if something like that doesn't happen.

So, I see TGB crossing above the medium term resistance range of $2.74 - $2.80 this week, if not today. I'll continue holding TGB.

Nah, the earnings weren't as good as I was painting them, because there was a tax benefit on the headline figure. I still couldn't figure out how much of the EPS number is related to this tax benefit because there aren't any financial statements on the press release.

But I see the share count, one of my biggest concerns when I held TGB previously, being reduced, since it was 128.43 million and with this Net Income and EPS figures, I see ($19.1 M/$0.16) = 119.375 million shares issued and outstanding.

I need to study this further, but I'll continue holding TGB.

I thought that the conference call went very well.  Today was my entry point.  I think the good quarter will trump the short term trendline.  TGB should be in the $3s very soon.

I got shaked out on this one last month .... It's now time to re-open the position


First chart---> Nov, 04 2006
Second Chart --> Current

Quote from: Terliso on December 19, 2006, 05:58:00 PM
I got shaked out on this one last month .... It's now time to re-open the position


First chart---> Nov, 04 2006
Second Chart --> Current

Terliso, applaud !
It sure looks ready, 50-day held, long consolidation pattern. I think 2007 will be TGB's year.

Taseko Announces Year End & Q4 Results
Monday December 18, 10:00 pm ET
For the fourth quarter of 2006, earnings were $19.1 million or $0.16 per share.
Link for the entire article.....  http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061218/0196374.html

[audio] Taseko Mines Earnings Conference Call (recorded earlier today)
Link.....  http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/6/75746.html

52wk Range: 0.99 - 4.25
Volume: 2,663,700
Avg Vol (3m): 840,685

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
9.79%above 13-day EMA
13.97%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: N/A 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $116.49 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A

Quote from: buddjas1 on December 19, 2006, 01:56:56 PM
I thought that the conference call went very well.  Today was my entry point.  I think the good quarter will trump the short term trendline.  TGB should be in the $3s very soon.

Nice timing buddjas1

We got the long awaited bullish breakout of the medium term descending trendline. I read the earnings press release again and again and it seems to me the 4th quarter fiscal net income (calendar 3rd quarter) had a boost from the following:

«(2) Includes $8.5 million received in settlement of arbitration with Glencore.»

Without this special income, net income would have been $19.1 M - $8.5 M = $10.6 M for the quarter, or $10.6 M/119.375 million shares = $0.09 EPS.

This way, without this special gain, fiscal 2006 EPS would be $0.15 and the trailing earnings multiple would be 18.8.

But, if we multiply this 4th quarter normalized EPS by 4 quarters, we get $0.36 EPS for a full year. To get to the copper mining industry average earnings multiple of 10, TGB needs to move up to about $3.6.

If the stock trades to that point today, I'll sell it, but of course I don't expect that, and with incoming information, who knows if $copper doesn't give a hand here. Again, one of my biggest fears on TGB was dilution, because in the past they increased the number of authorized shares to "unlimited", but those fears were unfounded, as the company is in fact buying back shares, as you can see from the reduced number of shares outstanding used in calculating the EPS figures.

Bought some TGB @ 2.88$!

I'm ready for a pop - in earlier this year at 2.47 - now let's see some action

TGB was all over the map yesterday. Didn't left any gap open. People are worried about $copper breaking down below $3 per pound yesterday. I also worry about that, but the main support was always standing below $3, as you can check on this $copper chart:



It looks bearish and if it breaks down some more, it will definitely turn into a descending trend. I guess I'll just have to wait a few more days. Anyway, copper mining stocks were already discounting this, hence their much below average valuation.

I'll keep on holding TGB, its results were extraordinary, but, reading the initial analysis, this was a macro play on $copper, and if that goes, TGB will go too. For now I'll continue holding.

I sold today for a decent gain.  After the quarter TGB had, TGB should be reacting much better than this.  I think the $Copper is scaring investors; it did me. 

Quote from: buddjas1 on December 21, 2006, 01:58:51 PM
I sold today for a decent gain.  After the quarter TGB had, TGB should be reacting much better than this.  I think the $Copper is scaring investors; it did me. 

Thanks for your opinion on TGB buddjas1

This time we disagree. You see, I've been holding and waiting for this bullish breakout for some time now. Now that it happened (I think today's session was actually constructive), I can't lose my position just because I fear $copper goes down a bit more.

The stock is acting right. As I wanted it to act. Selling now would be a sign of disrespect to the market.

I'll keep on holding TGB.

I agree with David.

When TGB was in play I was apprehensive because we didn't waited for the breakout (I only entered at 3.33% at that time), but before yesterday we finally got our beloved breakout which gave me the required confidence to put more 3.33% at TGB.

The picture showed a breakout, and IMHO, we should follow it 

Buddjas1, David and Dracull,

Good discussion, guys.  Applauds.

I agree with all of you, which probably is going to confuse the issue. 

The problem that I've got with TGB, is that I don't think that it has broken out, and if it has, it definitely hasn't broken out on a closing basis, so the breakout is very suspect, at best.

In early November, TGB had a breakout above an Inverse H&S (pattern in green).  The neckline was 2.56...2.57...2.59.  The breakout occurred on November 7, and TGB closed above the neckline.  That looked good.

November 8, TGB closed back below the breakout.

UGH. 

Sometimes that happens, for a fakeout, and you just have to grit your teeth and hang in there, and wait for it to breakout again.

TGB broke out again November 9, and everything looked fine again.

November 10, however, TGB put in a Bearish Engulfing candle, and closed back below the neckline breakout.

UGH. 

Readers of the TGB folder on The Stock Pick Board will remember that I had missed  my buy price at something like 2.48 prior to the breakout, but when I saw that SECOND close back below the neckline on a bearish candle and had the chance to buy it at 2.48, I no longer wanted the stock.

UGH. 

Down she went, to fill the 2.18 gap.   

Sorry for the lengthy saga of that false breakout, but the reason for it is that we might have the same thing in this time-frame: another false breakout.

I'll show you what I mean in the next post.

Before we move on to that, look at the horizontal trendline (red) connecting the summer highs of 2.90...2.90...2.89.  Even if that's a valid trendline (meaning that the market is responding to it), TGB hasn't closed above it, so we have a "break above it" after earnings, but we don't have a confirmed breakout (a CLOSE above it).

The "break above it" on December 20 also was on what looks to be a Bearish Long-Legged Doji Star Hangman, followed by yesterday's Bearish Hangman candle, clearly back below the breakout.  Yesterday's high only was 2.82.

One thing I'm sure we all agree on: TGB needs to get above 3.00.