3SOF

KOMG has printed 34.83, a penny above the high of the Symmetrical Triangle (see daily chart above), so that's a minor target that MADE, and that high has been taken out to the upside.

So far, so good.

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 16, 2006, 10:09:42 AM
Another pattern breakout in KOMG this morning.

Nice candle for KOMG, following through to the upside on yesterday's Ascending Triangle breakout above 34.11-34.12.

The top of a "possible' Bear Channel (thin green line) comes in today at 36.03, and rises 0.06368 per day.  If we get there, I'll take some off the table to defend against a bearish pattern morph.

I don't expect that, given the two bullish pattern breakouts, but you never know.   

Nice Melf,

KOMG really kicked off in the last hour or so yesterday.  A solid long candle like this certainly does bode well for KOMG.  I was tempted yesterday after reading your analysis, but it seemed to be hanging a bit around 34.82 resistance, and I made my play for the day yesterday, garnering 2 points off NVEC (quite happy about that one - sold at 34.40 ).

Personally I think KOMG could easily have legs for $40 now, it might just take a little while - looks to be shaping up niceley though, so good luck (ah no such thing ) to ya!!

Quote from: ScottishTrader on October 17, 2006, 08:46:45 AM
Personally I think KOMG could easily have legs for $40 now, it might just take a little while - looks to be shaping up niceley though, so good luck (ah no such thing ) to ya!!

Thanks, Scotsman! 

KOMG got slapped yesterday, along with just about everything else.  On any further selloff, I would expect it to hold at QUADRUPLE 33.53 - 33.59 support:

33.59 - is where the top of the Symmetrical Triangle comes in today

33.53 - is the 22-Day Tenken-sen (solid red line) today

33.53 - is the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud) today

33.53 - is where the up trendline of the Ascending Triangle comes in today

Those will change a little each day, but right around there.  The upside targets still are IN PLAY, as long as KOMG holds the breakouts:

34.10 - The Ascending Triangle (36.83 is IN PLAY)

33.59 - The Top of the Symmetrical Triangle (38.49 is IN PLAY)

Survived a test of the ascending line yesterday, then closed near its high of the day. 

Targets: 36.83 and 38.49 still are IN PLAY.

Sold KOMG at 34.05.  Gain: ½%

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 20, 2006, 09:19:48 AM
Survived a test of the ascending line yesterday, then closed near its high of the day. 

Broke the Ascending line today, and closed near its low.  :

It still might be okay, but I don't like that. P

nice Q3 news 

Komag Reports Third Quarter of 2006 Financial Results
Wednesday October 25, 4:00 pm ET

SAN JOSE, Calif., Oct. 25 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Komag, Incorporated (Nasdaq: KOMG - News), a leading independent supplier of thin-film media for disk drives, today announced record revenue of $239.6 million and diluted earnings per share of $1.04, for the third quarter of 2006. These financial results represent a 33% increase in revenue and a 7% increase in diluted earnings per share over the same period last year.

Revenue and diluted earnings per share for the nine month period ended October 1, 2006 were $681.7 million and $3.35, respectively, a 38% increase in revenue and a 35% increase in diluted earnings per share for the nine months ended October 1, 2006 compared to the same nine month period of the prior year.

Tim Harris, Komag's Chief Executive Officer stated, "Overall market demand for our products has continued to increase and we reached another record quarter of revenue in the third quarter of 2006, as well as another solid quarter of earnings. This is the ninth consecutive quarter of increasing revenue for Komag. Our third quarter net income was impacted by a slower shipment rate than expected early in the quarter and compensation related expenses for executive retirements."

"In the third quarter of 2006, we continued to achieve strong manufacturing performance while qualifying and ramping new products. Further, we are very pleased to have completed qualification and began initial shipments to a new customer," said Mr. Harris.

Net income and diluted earnings per share for the third quarter of 2006 and the nine-month period ended October 1, 2006 includes compensation charges (primarily non-cash stock compensation) of $2.9 million and $6.0 million, respectively, related to the retirement of certain executive officers.

Third Quarter Review

Sales to Seagate, Western Digital and Hitachi Global Storage Technologies accounted for 38%, 34% and 24% of total revenue in the third quarter of 2006, respectively. Total finished disk shipments were 38.1 million in the third quarter of 2006.

High capacity 3.5-inch advanced disks at storage capacities of 160GB represented approximately 33% of total finished disk shipments in the third quarter of 2006. Shipments of 120GB and greater disks represented approximately 54% of Komag's total finished disk shipments in the third quarter of 2006. These disks are primarily targeted for high capacity desktop and multi-platter consumer applications. These rapidly growing consumer applications include personal video recorders (PVRs), digital video recorders (DVRs), high definition television (HDTV), external storage, gaming and other home entertainment devices.

Other revenue, which includes sales of aluminum substrates, nickel-plated polished aluminum substrates and textured substrates, accounted for 10% of total revenue in the third quarter of 2006. Komag is the world's largest hard disk aluminum substrate manufacturer. While substrates are primarily produced for internal use in the manufacture of finished disks, the high quality of Komag's substrates has led to continuing market opportunities to sell substrates externally to strategic customers.

Business Outlook

"Komag is currently qualified and shipping new perpendicular magnetic recording (PMR) media for 3.5-inch disk drives. We expect significant PMR media shipments in the fourth quarter of 2006 and further expect that shipments will continue to increase over the course of 2007. In addition to our development activities on 95mm PMR media products, we are also working on advanced PMR product designs for 65mm aluminum and glass products for shipment during 2007.

Current overall expectations for the fourth quarter of 2006 are that demand for our products remains strong and our factories are expected to run at near to full manufacturing capacity. Based on current demand, we expect that total revenue in the fourth quarter of 2006 could increase up to 5% from the record third quarter level. We further expect that an aggressive product transition will continue, including the ramping of our PMR products. Based on our expected revenue and support for the new advanced product transitions, net margin is expected to be in the range of 15% to 17% in the fourth quarter of 2006.

During the fourth quarter of 2006, we expect to maintain our finished media capacity at approximately 40 million disks per quarter. This is below our previously expected year end exit rate of 43 million disks per quarter. We maintain close coordination with our customers and currently believe that 40 million disks is the appropriate level of capacity to meet customer demand and achieve near full capacity utilization for the fourth quarter.

Komag is committed to supporting the growing demand for digital storage by maintaining our high quality, low cost manufacturing structure, providing advanced technology products, excellent customer support and providing rational capacity in conjunction with strategic supply agreements with our customers, with the goals of growing our business and providing financial returns to our stockholders," said Mr. Harris.



detailed presentation:

http://www.komag.com/investors/presentations/KOMG3Q06_Oct06.pdf

Quote from: la-onda on October 25, 2006, 04:12:31 PM
nice Q3 news 

Oliver,

My original stop below 32.45 (the low of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern, in green...and the "last low" of the little Ascending Triangle pattern, in blue) would have been fine, but I got out ahead of earnings on the October 20 close of the Ascending line.

Earnings look good. The pattern targets of 36.83 and 38.49 still are IN PLAY.

Good luck, if you have it! 

thanks MelfElf

fyi:
1)
Citigroup Investment Research Morning Note:
10-26-06
"Industry Woes Weigh on 2H06 But 1H07 Remains Promising"
While over the near-term Komag doesn't appear capable of escaping the gravitational field associated with be broader industry's challenges (inventory, pricing), we continue to
recommend it as the lone Buy in our HDD coverage group. The basis for our recommendation has been rooted in what we saw as an under-appreciated opportunity for incremental unit volumes associated with the Seagate/Maxtor transition, coupled with the company's expanding product and customer set. Although this was insufficient to offset the finished goods inventory build throughout the industry over the last 4-5 months, as this dynamic works through during the December quarter we expect reacceleration to commence during the first half. Intersecting with lowered capital spending and accelerated timing on new program ramps, we look for attractive fundamental improvement. This potential, coupled with the shares current 7x P/E multiple, has us looking past the near-term while maintaining our Buy rating and $40 price target.

2)
Komag "outperform," target price reduced
Thursday, October 26, 2006 6:16:41 AM ET
Robert W. Baird
NEW YORK, October 26 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Robert W Baird maintain their "outperform" rating on Komag Incorporated (KOMG.NAS), while reducing their estimates for the company. The target price has been reduced from $50 to $48.
In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company has reported its previous quarter's EPS short of the estimates and the consensus. Komag has announced Samsung as its new customer, which the analysts view as significantly positive, the analysts add. The EPS estimates for 2006 and 2007 have been reduced from $4.55 to $4.52 and from $5.00 to $4.75, respectively.

nice start in the morning, if you are invested 

(I am not  )

fyi:
KOMAG INC. (KOMG.O: Quote, Profile, Research)

Current Prior Rating Outperform Peer Perform

--Bear Stearns cited potential positives from adding a new customer Samsung, new product expansion, favorable margin impact from slowing capacity additions, favorable pricing trends in 2007 and the stock's low valuation.

The brokerage set a price target of $50 for the stock.
--Shares of the maker of computer disk drive components were up 6.05 percent at $37.58 in late morning trade on the Nasdaq. (Reporting by Hari Kumar in Bangalore)

fyi:
Komag upgraded to "buy"
Monday, October 30, 2006 9:12:05 AM ET
Deutsche Securities
NEW YORK, October 30 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities upgrade Komag Inc (KOMG.NAS) from "hold" to "buy."

shorts update:
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?symbol=komg&submit=Enter

Quote from: la-onda on October 31, 2006, 02:21:42 AM
fyi:
Komag upgraded to "buy"

Oliver,

The October 11 Symmetrical Triangle breakout target of 38.49 MADE yesterday,  on Deutsche Bank's  upgrade.  The  high was 38.51 .

I sold it ahead of earnings.   

Wasn't yesterday Devil's Night?       

-
Komag initiated with "neutral"
Tuesday, November 21, 2006 11:21:00 AM ET
Goldman Sachs
NEW YORK, November 21 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Goldman Sachs initiate coverage of Komag Inc (KOMG.NAS) with a "neutral" rating.

-
UBS conference presentation:
http://www.komag.com/investors/presentations/UBS_Nov06.pdf

-
chart:

update:
8:02AM Komag: Tracking to solid 4Q, outlook encouraging for 2007 - Needham (KOMG) 38.28 : Needham states that recent industry checks continue to suggest that KOMG is tracking to a solid 4Q. While drive demand was decent in Oct, volume improved meaningfully in Nov, and has remained robust thus far in Dec. They believe that pulls have been particularly strong from WDC and of perpendicular platters by STX. Firm notes that overall, with the supply/demand dynamics in balance, strong cash flow on the horizon, potential upside drivers emerging (Vista, glass entrance, Samsung), and a compelling valuation of just 8x, they continue to believe that KOMG is a core holding for those seeking to participate in the growth opportunity in HDDs, noting that with pricing and mix tracking to expectations, margins should tick up slightly sequentially.
Reiterates Strong Buy and $49 tgt.