3SOF

RESISTANCE:

1. 3.14 - is our first hurdle to overcome.  That's the top of the "mini" Ascending Triangle, basis the hourly chart (black horizontal line)

2. 3.17 - is roughly where the top of the 7-month Bullish Falling Wedge comes in on Monday (solid blue line).  I'm not going to bother to calculate it exactly, because I won't consider the pattern broken out unless we also take out...

3. 3.20- 3.21 - which is the top of the larger Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple).

4. 3.28 - is the 200DMA.  The 50/200 DMAs are inverted, but that would get rectified on a good rally.

5. 3.35-3.36 - is the gap from the Bearish Island Reversal after NXG failed at 3.53, validating the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge as resistance.

We have our work cut out for us, don't we? 

We've got a decent chance though, so I'm willing to take the 5.5% risk.

Good luck to us, guys! 

Hi Melf Elf,

Thank you very much for your input. I am currently in the sidelines ready to take a position in NXG. On Friday, the overall sector was down while NXG had a good session to the upside.

I have few short term concerns though, which may keep NXG from taking the short term resistance now, even tough it is technically set-up to do it.

1) The overall price of gold. Last session $GOLD formed an ugly reg candle and it is sitting just above moving averages. I would expect more pullback closer to the $600-$610 area

2) The US Dollar. Even though it is still in a downtrend in the last sessions it tried to build momentum to the upside, the weekly and daily charts indicate it may keep moving up for few more sessios or at least to test the trendline.

I will wait for more developments before pulling the trigger...

Thanks again for your great work,
Rafael

NORTHGATE ANNOUNCES MAJOR INCREASE IN GOLD RESOURCES AT YOUNG-DAVIDSON
Monday December 18, 8:30 am ET


VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Dec 18, 2006 -- Northgate Minerals Corporation (TSX:NGX.TO - News)(AMEX:NXG - News) is pleased to report the results of a new mineral resource estimate at its Young-Davidson property near Matachewan, Ontario. The estimate combines the results to date for the 2006 drill program with the historic drilling data.
ADVERTISEMENT


New Indicated and Inferred Resources have been determined for the three zones that have been the focus of this year's drill program, namely the Lower Boundary Zone (LBZ), Lucky Zone and Lower Young-Davidson Zone (LYD). Resource estimates for the Upper Boundary Zone (UBZ) and the Open Pit which were outlined in a previous NI 43-101 technical report were left unchanged at this time because very little drilling was completed in these areas during 2006.

Highlights

- Total Measured and Indicated gold resources have increased to 1,063,060 ounces including Indicated resources of 599,100 ounces underground.

- Total Inferred gold ounces have increased slightly to 1,071,270 ounces.

- Drill hole YD-06-27 (previously unreported) targeting an area 300 metres below the Lucky Zone and between the LBZ and LYD zones intersected a new zone assaying 7.06 g/t gold over 18.3 metres core length. Interestingly, this intersection occurs in an entirely different rock type (sediments as opposed to normal syenite host) and correlates with previous lower-grade intersections above it.

Ken Stowe, President and Chief Executive Officer, stated, "I am very pleased that after only ten months of drilling, we are already two thirds of the way towards our goal of doubling the underground resource base at Young-Davidson. With another 50,000 metres of surface based exploration drilling scheduled for 2007, I am confident that we will surpass our initial resource goal well before we begin underground definition drilling in late 2007. Our 2006 exploration program has clearly demonstrated that the Young-Davidson property contains at least one multi-million ounce mineralized system which has not yet been limited at depth or along strike (east or west). In addition, the program has shown that gold on the property is present in several different types of host rocks, increasing the exploration potential of other areas within Northgate's large Young-Davidson claim package."

OVERVIEW OF YOUNG-DAVIDSON EXPLORATION AREA

Gold mineralization on the Young-Davidson property is present primarily in an intrusive syenite host rock dipping at approximately 70 degrees to the south. Figure 1, shown below, presents previously reported underground resource areas (Micon 2004 report, red shaded areas) and new resources (light yellow shaded areas) that are reported herein, which are largely defined by 2006 drilling. Historic mine workings and simplified geology along with the pierce points for the holes drilled so far this year are also shown. Elevations in the longitudinal section are based on an artificial mine grid where the surface is defined as 8,000 feet.

To view Figure 1, please click on the following link: http://www.ccnmatthews.com/docs/Figure1_Northgate.jpg


http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/061218/0195862.html

Rafael and Se7en,

Thanks for comments and for the information on the increase in gold resources.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 16, 2006, 04:39:47 AM
RESISTANCE:

2. 3.17 - is roughly where the top of the 7-month Bullish Falling Wedge comes in on Monday (solid blue line).  I'm not going to bother to calculate it exactly, because I won't consider the pattern broken out unless we also take out...

Today's high was 3.17, right at the top of the Bullish Falling Wedge, so that's hit #4.  We didn't give up much, closing down two cents at 3.10, but we obviously need to take out that resistance.

I almost bought CUP last week.  It had a rally of 13.77% today. 

Curses!   

Hi guys,

I think CUP's run was more to the reaction of the news delivered this afternoon than the technical development through out..

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061218/to256.html?.v=43

As of yesterday CUP was still trading underneath moving averages pointing down building a base around 3.25/$3.30 area. I feel more confortable investing in NXG since it has strong numbers plus the every day big volume gives me confidence on the technical develpment. jmho

Rafael

Quote from: mexirafa on December 18, 2006, 05:46:24 PM
As of yesterday CUP was still trading underneath moving averages pointing down building a base around 3.25/$3.30 area. I feel more confortable investing in NXG since it has strong numbers plus the every day big volume gives me confidence on the technical develpment. jmho

Rafael,

Thanks for the news item.

I liked NXG a little better, too.  Similar chart patterns, though.  Both had big runs.  Both trading in a Bullish Falling Wedge.  Both still below their respective 200DMAs.

CUP closed below its Bullish Falling Wedge by about a penny or two, on November 17.  It regained the wedge and has held above that November 17 low, which I liked.  That suggested that November 17 was a downside fakeout, and it was, as the chart stands after yesterday's rally.

CUP's recent high on November 24 was 3.75, so yesterday's close at 3.80 on volume looks good for a challenge of its 200DMA, currently at 3.9941, and hopefully more than that for both stocks.

This one looks ready to move up again.  Looks like some accumulation since the begining of December. I'm going to have to watch this one! 

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 19, 2006, 03:00:56 AM

CUP's recent high on November 24 was 3.75, so yesterday's close at 3.80 on volume looks good for a challenge of its 200DMA, currently at 3.9941, and hopefully more than that for both stocks.

CUP opened at 4.09, up another 7½%.  TGB is up 4% on earnings.   NXG only is up a penny, despite the good news that Se7en posted yesterday.       It's early, though.

CUP opened at 4.09, up another 7½%.  TGB is up 4% on earnings.   NXG only is up a penny, despite the good news that Se7en posted yesterday.       It's early, though.
[/quote]

As you mentioned, so far, TGB, CUP, NXG and PD are showing positive......

I don't understand PCU today, I can't find any news why it is going opposite to the rest of the crowd.. Are we suppose to be concerned with such reaction since this is one of the industry leaders?

BTW, $COPPER is just abouve support around $300

Hopefully today NXG will break the resistance today...

Rafael

Quote from: mexirafa on December 19, 2006, 10:28:40 AM
I don't understand PCU today, I can't find any news why it is going opposite to the rest of the crowd.. Are we suppose to be concerned with such reaction since this is one of the industry leaders?

Rafael,

I wouldn't make much of PCU being down today.  That's probably just a reaction to yesterday's challenge of its recent high, at 58.38.  Yesterday's high was 58.23.

I'm more concerned about NXG taking out resistance here.

3.18 is nice.  That's a new high for the move, and a technical breakout of the 7-month Bullish Falling Wedge.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 16, 2006, 04:39:47 AM
RESISTANCE:

2. 3.17 - is roughly where the top of the 7-month Bullish Falling Wedge comes in on Monday (solid blue line).  I'm not going to bother to calculate it exactly, because I won't consider the pattern broken out unless we also take out...

3. 3.20- 3.21 - which is the top of the larger Ascending Triangle (pattern in purple).

Now, we need to take out that 3.20-3.21 resistance.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 19, 2006, 12:01:43 PM
Now, we need to take out that 3.20-3.21 resistance.

There's the 3.20.

Current BID 3.19...ASK 3.20.

Can we hear 3.21?  How 'bout that wealthy looking man in the back row? 

Good call, $3.23 now

Melf Elf, what's the 'Target in Play' if we close above that 3.20-3.21 resistance!? Tia.

So far so good,  I was late to the game (as usual), but I'm in @$3.18.  Good call Melf Elf