3SOF

this is crazy!!!! anybody? im thinking of buying more here?

Crazy it is!! 

LOL, after I got it at 4.25 I was already salivating a good profit when it hit 4.6 so I was putting a 5.48 sell order when it drops again and got shaken out at 4.31.

I'm waiting to see if I can pick it up again between 3.75 and 3.85 but it's so volatile today; a lot of short players and profit takers today on this one so it could go even lower.

50% fib retracement it 3.87

Quote from: la-onda on December 20, 2006, 03:42:15 PM
is there any entry strategy for SIGA from TA side?

Oliver,

Yes, you can look for patterns on the 1-Minute chart and play breakouts like we had above #5 of this channel (see chart), at 3.77, at 2:59PM yesterday afternoon, and we also can play pullbacks to the top of the pattern, like the second arrow (below the trendline), at 3.78, at 3:06PM yesterday.

Put your stop below the "last low" of the pattern, or in the case of buying the 3.78 successful pullback to the top of the pattern, put your stop right below 3.78 when the stock moves higher.

There also were two short trades this morning, on the rally failure to the gap, and on the break of 4.25-4.26 support.

Now, let's have some T2T discussion.

That kind of daytrading requires tremendous discipline, to wait for the trade, execute it in fast market conditions, and to pull the trigger and stop it out if the stop gets hit.  No, "Gee, I think I'll hold on, and hope this thing comes back."  We saw what happened with that on the last horrible selloff.

These are "Kamikaze stocks," for those who need an adrenelin rush.  

There's nothing at all wrong with that, of course, as long as we know what we're doing.  These stocks can hurt us badly.  In late trading yesterday, there was no let up in the panic buying in the 4.80s, 4.90s, and above 5.00.  Let's picture how those players felt when SIGA dropped to 3.95 this morning, and their positions were down 20%, or more.

UGH.  

They now are saying, "Gee, I hope this thing goes back to 5.00, so I can get out!"

UGH.  

Again, playing these momo stocks can be exciting, but unless we commit to having a trading plan, and to knowing how we're going to play it, these trades can result in devastating losses.

I'd avoid "throwing money" at them.

Just a suggestion.

Quote from: kslifka on December 21, 2006, 10:35:24 AM
50% fib retracement it 3.87

kslifka,

FWIW, this morning's pattern break below 4.25-4.26 put 3.87 IN PLAY.

4.65 - This morning's high on the rally to the gap
4.26 - (I use the more conservative of the 4.25 and 4.26 lows)

4.65 - 4.26 = 0.39 points

4.26 - 0.39 = Target: 3.87

Be careful, guys.   

The thing that strikes me as weird is that volume yesterday was no where near the volume on the earlier breakout even with what I see as being much better news.

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 21, 2006, 11:17:18 AM
50% fib retracement it 3.87

kslifka,

FWIW, this morning's pattern break below 4.25-4.26 put 3.87 IN PLAY.

3.87 MADE.

Quote from: Melf Elf
3.87 MADE.

Well done, Melf and kslifka. Applause

Quote from: nutsterrt on December 21, 2006, 12:11:36 PM

Quote from: Melf Elf
3.87 MADE.

Well done, Melf and kslifka. Applause

nutsterrt,

That was interesting, how kslifka's retracement was the same as the target.

3.87 didn't hold, probably because of this Symmetrical Triangle that broke to the downside (Bearish Continuation pattern).  The break put 3.78 IN PLAY.  The low, so far, is 3.81, so fairly close.

Math:

4.22 - High of the pattern
3.95 - Low of the pattern

4.22 - 3.95 - 0.27 points

The breakdown occurred at 4.05 - 0.27 = Target: 3.78

Bought SIGA at 4.00.  Stop: 3.91, below the 1:25 PM low, prior to the rally to 4.16.  Risk: a loss of 2.3%

Looks like an Inverse H&S.  Breakout is above 4.16.

Yeah you gotta be real careful when playing these volatile suckers (I have been at it lately, and mostly fairly well - dunno if it is luck or careful 1min chart studying  )

I was lucky to see SIGA a couple minutes after it broke yesterday and averaged into a position around 3.30.  I really wanted to sell some yesterday at the end of the day, as I had a strong feeling we would see a pullback today, but pattern daytrading rules forbade it.  So I sold half at 4.50 at the open, holding the other half to see what the day brought, after the first reaction low at 4.25 showed support here, I immediately set a stop on the remainder of my position a little below that, at 4.19, to give it a bit of lee-way.  Sure enough, SIGA broke down on volume through 4.25 and took out my stop.

It brings me to thinking about these kind of highly volatile momentume plays as being incredibly difficult to figure out.  The only way I can work them is by aiming to sell half whenever I think "whoa there she goes, this is crazy" as it runs up, and then protect the rest with a stop that I keep moving as the patterns I see develop.  The problem being that (as we all know) the patterns evolve in ways that are not entirely evident at the time, and chances are, in a volatile stock like these ones, wherever you set your stop, you WILL be stopped out on the remainder, as the swings are so wide that unless you are willing to risk 20%+ of your current value, and put it WAY lower than you will think it will go (just look at ESCL today - people playing that who set stops below $10 for example, thinking there's NO WAY that'll trigger, got hammered).  I have also been working on using aggressive stops and protective stops in combination  when a stock is running hard, like ESCL did yesterday.  However, my aggressive stop ALWAYS gets hit (and often my protective stop too).  Seems better to sell some whenever you think things are going a little bit too well, they probably are.

Speaking of intraday invers H&S breakouts - have a look at MAMA - there she goes again!!!

Quote from: Melf Elf on December 21, 2006, 02:38:26 PM
Bought SIGA at 4.00.  Stop: 3.91, below the 1:25 PM low, prior to the rally to 4.16.  Risk: a loss of 2.3%

Looks like an Inverse H&S.  Breakout is above 4.16.

Aw-w, they got me.  Stopped out at 3.90.  Loss: 2.5%.

That went on much too long for a Right Shoulder, but I stuck with the plan, looking for a Bull Flag morph.

Quote from: ScottishTrader on December 21, 2006, 03:19:19 PM
It brings me to thinking about these kind of highly volatile momentume plays as being incredibly difficult to figure out. 

Scotsman,

No kidding! 

I thought my trade would be okay.  Curses!   

Quote from: ScottishTrader on December 21, 2006, 03:19:19 PM
Yeah you gotta be real careful when playing these volatile suckers (I have been at it lately, and mostly fairly well - dunno if it is luck or careful 1min chart studying  )

I was lucky to see SIGA a couple minutes after it broke yesterday and averaged into a position around 3.30.  I really wanted to sell some yesterday at the end of the day, as I had a strong feeling we would see a pullback today, but pattern daytrading rules forbade it.  So I sold half at 4.50 at the open, holding the other half to see what the day brought, after the first reaction low at 4.25 showed support here, I immediately set a stop on the remainder of my position a little below that, at 4.19, to give it a bit of lee-way.  Sure enough, SIGA broke down on volume through 4.25 and took out my stop.

It brings me to thinking about these kind of highly volatile momentume plays as being incredibly difficult to figure out.  The only way I can work them is by aiming to sell half whenever I think "whoa there she goes, this is crazy" as it runs up, and then protect the rest with a stop that I keep moving as the patterns I see develop.  The problem being that (as we all know) the patterns evolve in ways that are not entirely evident at the time, and chances are, in a volatile stock like these ones, wherever you set your stop, you WILL be stopped out on the remainder, as the swings are so wide that unless you are willing to risk 20%+ of your current value, and put it WAY lower than you will think it will go (just look at ESCL today - people playing that who set stops below $10 for example, thinking there's NO WAY that'll trigger, got hammered).  I have also been working on using aggressive stops and protective stops in combination  when a stock is running hard, like ESCL did yesterday.  However, my aggressive stop ALWAYS gets hit (and often my protective stop too).  Seems better to sell some whenever you think things are going a little bit too well, they probably are.

Speaking of intraday invers H&S breakouts - have a look at MAMA - there she goes again!!!

ScottishTrader...Do you have Ameritrade???  I had that daytrading flag come up too.  I called TDAmeritrade...and they said the daytrading rule doesn't apply unless you have less than $25,000 in your account.

So I missed on selling yesterday too

Some large buying orders coming in, back above 4$ at the moment ...

Not to rain on anyone's parade, but the following 8-K came out after the bell and appears to be putting a dent in SIGA:

On December 20, 2006, PharmAthene, Inc. ("PharmAthene") filed a complaint (the "Complaint") against SIGA Technologies, Inc. ("SIGA") in the Delaware Chancery Court. PharmAthene's complaint alleges that it has the right to license exclusively development and marketing rights for SIGA's drug candidate, SIGA-246, pursuant to, among other things, the recently terminated merger agreement between the parties. PharmAthene's complaint further alleges that SIGA failed to negotiate the terms of such license in good faith and otherwise failed to grant such license, and it seeks to compel SIGA to enter into such license and pay unspecified damages. SIGA believes that the complaint lacks merit and intends to contest vigorously the alleged claims.

Hm, imo SIGA did nothing wrong by terminating the deal, they had every right to!


ARTICLE XII

TERMINATION

12.1 Termination.



(b) This Agreement may be terminated by SIGA upon the execution of a Superior Agreement (as defined below) by SIGA. SIGA shall not execute a Superior Agreement unless (i) the SIGA Board of Directors has received a Superior Proposal, (ii) in light of such Superior Proposal, the SIGA Board of Directors has determined, in good faith by resolution duly adopted after consultation with outside counsel, that it is necessary for the SIGA Board of Directors to withdraw, amend or modify its approval or recommendation of this Agreement or the Merger in order to comply with its fiduciary duties to the stockholders of SIGA under applicable Law, (iii) SIGA has provided written notice of the determination described in clause (ii) above to Pharmathene, which notice has attached to it a copy of the definitive agreement or agreements containing all of the terms and conditions of such Superior Proposal (the "Superior Agreement"), (iv) at least five (5) business days following receipt by Pharmathene of the notice referred to in clause (iii) above, and after taking into account any revised proposal made by Pharmathene following receipt of the notice referred to in clause (iii) above, such Superior Proposal remains a Superior Proposal and the SIGA Board of Directors has again made the determination referred to in clause (ii) above (it being understood and agreed that any change to the financial or other material terms of such Superior Proposal shall require a new notice to Pharmathene under clause (iii) above and a new five (5) business day period under this clause (iv)), and (v) SIGA has not breached Section 7.13 in any material respect.

12.2 Termination Fee.

(a) If this Agreement is terminated pursuant to Section 12.1(b), SIGA shall pay Pharmathene upon demand a termination fee equal to three percent of the value of SIGA, as determined in accordance with the terms of this Agreement.

(b) All termination fees shall be paid by SIGA by wire transfer of immediately available funds to such account as shall have been designated by Pharmathene.