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Started by David Randolph, December 26, 2006, 05:16:13 AM

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David Randolph

I know MAMA's financials aren't attractive, but fundamental analysis isn't just analyzing the financial statements, it is a lot more than that.

I was bearish on MAMA, but I guess fundamentals changed completely. I should have bought the stock right after the change in fundamentals and technicals, but I was slow to perceive it.

Today I saw that another "video-related" speculative story unfolded on ONSM, and that has lead me to investigate what's going on in the space. I compared the two leading search engines, www.google.com and www.yahoo.com with www.mamma.com.

Google is still testing its video search engine, so it still doesn't exist on www.google.com, just at http://video.google.com/ (this seems kind of silly).

Yahoo has its Video search engine, which is similar to google's.

But www.mamma.com's video search engine is different, the technology looks more appealing, because it differentiates between categories and providers.  

I think it is possible to speculate that this "advantage" may make MAMA's search engine grow as internet users search to find video content instead of text content (and MAMA is just an $87 M market cap company).

MAMA's shares had a huge run over the last couple of weeks, but now the stock is having a steep correction and I'll be looking to buy it on the dip. I see a support level at $5.28 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level stands at $5.35.  

I'll try to buy MAMA between $5.20 and $5.50 today (this means the stock needs to be down about 12% from Friday's close, which is possible).

The trading plan is:


Try to add MAMA between $5.20 and $5.50, 6.66% of capital as usual.

David Randolph

I'm still looking to grab MAMA between $5.20 and $5.50. The low of the day, at least until now, was $5.55.

David Randolph

#2
It looks like I've lost it. If I could change the trading plan on the intraday, perhaps I would. This way I'll probably have to chase it higher tomorrow ::)

Good luck.

vic666

David...the 10 EMA is at $5.45, so I do expect price to test that range. just letting you know, that's all.
Long term investments are short-term investments that have gone wrong.

David Randolph

#4
Quote from: vic666 on December 26, 2006, 12:15:19 PM
David...the 10 EMA is at $5.45, so I do expect price to test that range. just letting you know, that's all.

Thanks for the info vic666, I have it at $5.49 (including today's session - ah, ok, but mine is a simple moving average and you're talking exponential - that I have at $5.46). But I guess that if the stock is as good as I think it is, perhaps it won't let us buy right at support. Perhaps today will close with doji candlestick which reveals indecision.

Anyway, I maintain a buy order at $5.40 for today.

David Randolph

#5
Quote from: David Randolph on December 26, 2006, 11:07:20 AM
It looks like I've lost it. If I could change the trading plan on the intraday, perhaps I would. This way I'll probably have to chase it higher tomorrow ::)

Good luck.

There's a reason why I can't change the trading plan on an intraday basis, a good one ;)

To fully understand why I consider MAMA an attractive buy at a $78 M market cap, despite the lousy balance sheet and income statements, you need to do the following: open the three links below on three browser windows, which show a video search for the words "coca cola":

- Google video search for "coca cola"
- Yahoo video search for "coca cola"
- Mamma video search for "coca cola"

Do you get why MAMA's video search engine is better? It not only searches for videos, it categorizes them. It also separates videos taking into account its source.

I don't know how they differentiate the videos, from humor to advertising to personal blogs, but the fact is that they do. You may think: "but that's just a small programming tweak, how can it be worth hundreds of millions?" Well, Google is nothing more than some programming tweaks, and it is worth, let me see, $142.5 B :o. Also, youtube was a losing money company with worst financials than MAMA, and yet, Google bought it for $1.65 B.

If I'm right and MAMA has a technological advantage here on video search, I believe Google, Yahoo or another big search engine company will buy MAMA.

I expect you guys to come up with counter arguments, because I'm no technology expert (far from that) and I'll read on other boards if I can find something that contradicts my thinking on MAMA.

For now, I'm a believer, and I'll be buying shares tomorrow on a further dip to $5.30 - $5.50. 6.66% of capital as usual.

stocky

I did the performance comparison on MAMA.COM and YOUTUBE.COM,


http://youtube.com/results?search_query=nadir+shah

http://videos.mamma.com/Mamma_videos?query=nadir+shah


If you visit the links you will find that my videos on youtube are no where on mama. Interestingly, I googled the same key words: nadir shah    on google video and I got the two videos which I posted on Google Video itself and NO result from youtube. This leads me to conclusion that Mama can access youtube based on may be single key words [though I am not the lucky fellow], google can't give result even though it owns youtube. That may show why Mama quadrupled in couple of weeks.

Will wait for David's trading plan.

buddjas1

#7
How does the new free video-search website translate into income for the company?  Right now, I just see an added expense. 

buddjas1

Never mind-- I just read the other string, where you stated:

"Video content will attract more viewers than text content and naturally placing ads on videos or around them will be worth much more."

stocky

Personally speaking, my free time hangout nowadays is YOUTUBE earlier it would have been other time killers. I am sure that this will be true as soon as you get hooked to it. For internet its the fight for Eyeballs and Web Traffic. Though I am personally biased about mama.com success. Never trusted this ticker. But who knows, fortune may change. Will follow David on this.

David Randolph

#10
Well, I certainly didn't expect MAMA to open 8.5% higher on the day, or I wouldn't have planned to "buy at the open". But buy at the open was what I did, because that was the plan. I guess some of you bought on Tuesday or at the pre-market and got a better entry than mine, which was $6.01.

It's extremely hard to catch the exact bottom, usually when I try that I can never buy the stock.

I see the 10 days SMA providing support. I made another video search on MAMA, this time for "stock market" and I got four sponsored links. These links cost money. Now, remember MAMA is just an $80 M market cap company, these new advertising revenues can be significant.

MAMA's balance sheet shows $8.5 M in cash and $2.7 M in total current liabilities. That's good.

cumulina sent me an article from Stocklemon bashing MAMA with the usual arguments: "this is a pump and dump, the company just wants your money, bla bla". Perhaps he's right. Right as he was on IIG. What puzzles me is that he didn't mentioned the market cap ... it seems like MAMA was up so much that it is already too big for its fundamentals. But no, still way too small. It could double and still look small, with $160 M market cap.

I'm in the red with MAMA now, but I'll continue holding for some more time.

HANDBALLJIM

#11
Guess what...mamma's web search is a little more high tech then it looks. I tried their white pages search...I tested it
using my bosses name...even though his phone # is not listed...he comes up with his age in the search and all his relatives
with the same last names with information. It gave his brothers 3 locations in 3 different city's...at all 3 of the properties
he owns....if people had chosen through their phone companies not to be in a public directory...it gives you links where it
brings you to a partner company called "Intelius People search"....where for a fee you can locate all types of secure info.

Now if your search does not have their info privet: All their info comes up (name, address, phone#) plus a map and
other cool options.

They also won some awards for their desktop products.
http://www.copernic.com/

Also the sponsored links are growing........In the past when I checked out  mamma.com I really did not see much ads at all...and I thought it was just a plain search engine. Sometimes you have dig a little...to get below the surface.

I will keep digging  ;)

HANDBALLJIM

Some Mamma.com stats from Alexa:
http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?url=mamma.com

Site Stats for mamma.com:
Traffic Rank for mamma.com:  2,862 (1,277)
Speed:  Average (52% of sites are slower), Avg Load Time: 2.1 Seconds 
Other sites that link to this site:  6,734
Online Since:  31-Jul-1996

User Reviews for mamma.com from Amazon...notice the 2 from this year!!!
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/customer-reviews/B00006C39G/ref=cm_cr_dp_2_1/102-7958478-5928900?ie=UTF8&customer-reviews.sort%5Fby=-SubmissionDate

Other sites owned by mama
targetnet.com
mammamediasolutions.com
mammainc.com
focusin.com
mama.com
Datais.com
mamma.com
mammahealth.com
copernic.com

Since I am into design mamma search engine should hire some talented web designers to give their website a modern look...image is everything these days....especially since I spent all day shopping at some clothing outlets...it was packed with people trying to look gooood.

HANDBALLJIM

I had decided to keep half of my position in MAMA. Since I thought we decided that video on the web was the future. I think this stock might try to rally again. Something about those big upward moves a week ago...kind of reminds me of the stocks before the internet bubble bursted.

GOOG at $487.18 and MAMA at $5.59 I realize you cannot compare the two because MAMA has no earnings...but I feel MAMA has some push left...and I think could go to $15...and if for some crazy reason pushes through Resistance...lookout.

What is interesting is that MAMA is now on most Traders watch lists...due to the fact that its volume increased to over 270,000,000 million shares traded in December. I think before December it was trading under 1 million a month. (or around there)

What could be next for search engines...how about this...live webcam search.

I sometimes will decide not to invest in companies due to their websites...I feel to succeed in a world that feeds on information and things that are appealing you need to have a good online presence. Let's just say that I am looking past MAMA's website design... ???

NERO

Hi there!
what do you think about MAMA?I think it looks good.
thanks