3SOF

I second realcoolhead on that, David. Your website is what has been giving me an opportunity to be exposed to the stock market and at the same time feel somewhat protected from huge losses. I do not have the time to analyze the stocks in detail you do due to my full-time job, but I do take time to understand your decisions.

I enjoy the quick-time picks, the ones "on fire" because they have strong indicators and bring fast profit. At the same I feel comfortable to hold a stock that has strong fundamentals (today as well as going forward) and is in your opinion undervalued.

Keep up the good work, you've got plenty of students in your institute of 3SOF!

dilution?, dilution and debt reduction? good news or bad?


"(Onstream Media Corporation press release).........a leading online service provider of live and on- demand, digital media communications and applications, today announced that it has received approximately $2.2 million from its recent issuance of approximately 1.5 million common shares, resulting from the exercise of previously issued warrants and options. These exercises took place beginning on December 13, with the majority occurring on December 21. In addition, approximately $3.1 million of its 8% convertible senior and subordinated debentures, representing 59% of the gross balance outstanding as of June 30, 2006, have been eliminated as a result of recent conversions into approximately 3.1 million common shares.

(company spokesperson says:)

"As a result of the recent market activity in the company's common stock, many investors holding both common stock purchase-warrants and convertible debentures have exercised their warrants or converted their debt, favorably resulting in both a significant cash infusion and debt reduction," said Randy Selman, president and chief executive officer of Onstream Media. "We now have additional capital to satisfy existing accounts payable, fund recurring capital and operating expense requirements, and expand our marketing and sales programs. As a result of our recently announced Digital Media Services Platform Web 2.0 technology upgrades, combined with these expanded marketing and sales programs, we are now well positioned to accelerate our ongoing efforts to increase our market share of the 'video on the web' marketplace."

These debenture conversions will result in a one-time non-cash expense of approximately $1.4 million for the three months ended December 31, 2006, arising from the write-off of an unamortized debt discount. The conversions and the warrant exercises will reduce the pool of derivatives that the Company is required to adjust to market value each quarter, however the impact on the December 31, 2006 financial statements will depend on, among other things, the market price of the Company's shares at that date.

QuoteThere's no way to hide it, extreme dilution over the years on ONSM, especially in 2006, especially now:

• Onstream Gets $2.2M From Share Purchases
AP (Thu 5:02pm)

The graph above is already updated with these recent share conversions by warrants and note holders. The current share count stands at about 19.4 million, so the market cap is 19.4 million*$2.74 = $53 M.

I don't think these conversions are unexpected at all. Also the historical # shares outstanding graph is what we could expect from a losing money company like ONSM.

Yes, of course it means dilution. I just didn't thought it was unexpected.

Sold my position at $2.40, according to plan:

QuoteThe trading plan is:

HOLD ONSM, unless it is set to close below $2.45. If that is about to happen, cut the losses near the close.

I had a 23% loss on this trade (1.53% of total equity). It was a high price to pay, I'll never forget it.

Todays volatility does have to do with thin pre-holiday trading, tax games and may be much more. I will suggest if David re-analyse the current bullish scenario and do some kind of sector study. It will be helpful if we know which sectors are roaring or crying, in some quantitative form.

Goodluck all.

Stupid stop loss didn't trigger the sell. Hope I don't get creamed 1/2/07 with a much more substantial loss on this one. Since my 2.45 stop loss did not trigger, any suggestions on how to view this particular stock the next trading day? Wait and see what happends or put in a sell order prior to the opening bell? Again I am still new and have much to learn.

Quote from: stocky on December 29, 2006, 04:14:09 PM
It will be helpful if we know which sectors are roaring or crying, in some quantitative form.

What sectors are roaring? well, you can find it here...

http://www2.barchart.com/sectors.asp?base=industry

Quote from: lancefur on December 29, 2006, 04:22:26 PM
Stupid stop loss didn't trigger the sell. Hope I don't get creamed 1/2/07 with a much more substantial loss on this one. Since my 2.45 stop loss did not trigger, any suggestions on how to view this particular stock the next trading day? Wait and see what happends or put in a sell order prior to the opening bell? Again I am still new and have much to learn.

I'm never ever a fan of gap up Black candles at least initially.  I like to see the 9ema catch up with the price before I consider buying a stock with a black candle.  Notice today it finished just above the 9ema.

Right now I don't see much more down side.  Worst case...I believe is that ONSM closes the gap and treads water for a while.  Better case is 9ema acts as support and we get a bounce in a few days to a week.

ONSM keeps trying to rally to no avail so far.

Quote from: lancefur on December 29, 2006, 04:22:26 PM
Stupid stop loss didn't trigger the sell. Hope I don't get creamed 1/2/07 with a much more substantial loss on this one. Since my 2.45 stop loss did not trigger, any suggestions on how to view this particular stock the next trading day? Wait and see what happends or put in a sell order prior to the opening bell? Again I am still new and have much to learn.

You'll probably be able to sell higher than I did. The stock closed at $2.46, so I shouldn't have sold, according to plan. Perhaps stocky is right when he says the heavy selling towards the close was due to the end of the year volatility.

Anyway, I made a strategic mistake going after high flying speculative stocks, instead of staying with sound fundamental picks. Paid the price. Time to rest now.

Happy new year

as some of you people .... I watched and watched.... and put in my order right near the close and got filled at 2.38 so I'm stuck untill Tuesday next. I should have re-read the inital plan and been standing aside but alas thats not what happend. Maybe for several of our sakes, we'll get a good obunce off that 9ema. Now... just in case that happens, what should I do? take a small profit and get out? or stay put? Incidentally, I waited a while to buy after reading David's (and others) thoughts on "when to buy" a security. One thing that caught my eye was someones post  (can't remember who) which suggested waiting until 10am to buy anything at all. That made some sense to me as I've been shot out'a the sky by buying at the open. I waited a few days to get in ONSM and now I'm glad I did no matter what happens Tues.

                            compliments and  regards to all and a Happy New Year!,

                                                        mitch

Quote from: anvilring on December 29, 2006, 05:38:44 PM
as some of you people .... I watched and watched.... and put in my order right near the close and got filled at 2.38 so I'm stuck untill Tuesday next. I should have re-read the inital plan and been standing aside but alas thats not what happend. Maybe for several of our sakes, we'll get a good obunce off that 9ema. Now... just in case that happens, what should I do? take a small profit and get out? or stay put? Incidentally, I waited a while to buy after reading David's (and others) thoughts on "when to buy" a security. One thing that caught my eye was someones post  (can't remember who) which suggested waiting until 10am to buy anything at all. That made some sense to me as I've been shot out'a the sky by buying at the open. I waited a few days to get in ONSM and now I'm glad I did no matter what happens Tues.

                            compliments and  regards to all and a Happy New Year!,

                                                        mitch

You will hear some people to refer to the first hour of trading as "happy hour" or "amateur hour" because they think that only inexperienced traders buy during that time.  Of course that's not completely true but you get the idea.  There are also differing practices of waiting until either the first 30 minutes or 1 hour is complete before taking any action to let the markets settle down.  That would be completely up to the trader but it seems to be more for the day traders than anyone looking for longer term investments or swing trading.

Quote from: Terliso on December 29, 2006, 04:34:06 PM

Quote from: stocky on December 29, 2006, 04:14:09 PM
It will be helpful if we know which sectors are roaring or crying, in some quantitative form.

What sectors are roaring? well, you can find it here...

http://www2.barchart.com/sectors.asp?base=industry

Actually, barchart.com's sector page only gives the total alpha of the stocks in the sector.  You can get more information going to it's "Sector Change" via the links on the left of that page although that information is also lacking.

I have never been quite satisfied with sector offerings from any website so I have been working on my own sector "scans" using barchart.com's weighted alpha information.  The interface isn't pretty, since it is really for my own use and entertainment, but it's available for anyone that wants to check it out here.  There is a daily scan that shows the sector changes for the last 5 days that is sortable on each column and other scans of differing time frames with direct links to sector charts and stock lists.  I haven't figured out how to have the tables sortable and with the sector and stock links but I'll do it when I have the time as well as adding more monthly and quarterly comparisons.  If anyone has a scan they would like to see, please let me know.

Thanks for the refreshing comments, David. I am learning slowly but surely with all of this and credit 3SOF for aiding me in that process. I just wish I would have paid for premium membership earlier in the year so I could have recovered better from my more misinformed trading decisions.

You have a Happy New Year as well and I look forward to an extremely profitable year with the help of 3SOF.

Nice rally on ONSM today. realcoolhead was right (he really has a cool head, its amazing ), probably I should have held the stock longer.

Damn stops. I really dislike using them. They seem to protect from losses, but instead they create them. They're a defense from a misinformed trading decision, but nothing will save an investor from being misinformed.

My worst fear on ONSM was dilution (because it happened just recently, but perhaps I should have gone deeper on the subject, because maybe there won't be much more dilution going forward).

Bad trade, nice lesson.

Fortunately the Stocks on Fire portfolio biggest holdings, SYX and AMKR, are moving up by 5 - 7% today ... as other fundamentally attractive stocks of the portfolio.

So I decided to stay in on the off chance it would rally. I am so glad it did rally. One question is with this spot of good fortune today, what would be the best option? I was in at 3.12 so this is still a loss if I sell but looking at it now....just don't know. Anyone have an opinion? Thanks.

lancefur... I'm in at 2.38 and wondering the same thing. Since I'm new here I don't own all the stocks in the porfolio; should I subsitute this one for one of the 3sof port. stocks? or sell?

                       tia, mitch

Quote from: anvilring on January 03, 2007, 11:03:59 AM
lancefur... I'm in at 2.38 and wondering the same thing. Since I'm new here I don't own all the stocks in the porfolio; should I subsitute this one for one of the 3sof port. stocks? or sell?

                       tia, mitch

The issue is:

«These exercises took place beginning on December 13, with the majority occurring on December 21. In addition, approximately $3.1 million of its 8% convertible senior and subordinated debentures, representing 59% of the gross balance outstanding as of June 30, 2006, have been eliminated as a result of recent conversions into approximately 3.1 million common shares.»

Will the company need more financing or really there's just 41% left of convertible debentures?

I have mixed feelings about this company, there's some risk, but I guess the upside potential compensates the risk. You can't hold just this stock, but if you own it in a diversified portfolio (say, ONSM isn't more than 10% of your total equity), I guess you can keep it some more time to see how video on the web helps the company grow.

Good luck