3SOF

good call kslifka. I bought bunch at 14.51. it is now bouncing off higher. tomorrow should be good

Quote from: zibeaster on January 03, 2007, 03:44:40 PM
good call kslifka. I bought bunch at 14.51. it is now bouncing off higher. tomorrow should be good

Thanks Zibeaster,

Congrats...You got a better price than I did.  Keep in mind there is a possibility that FFHL goes for the secondary trendline.  Infact tomorrow FFHL will have to open higher than today's close if this steep trendline is to hold.  We shall see.

I am not too worried even if it penetrate this trendline a little bit. as long as the momo are still here. good luck

excellent call kslifka. trendline is holding. going strong! In at 14.81 yesterday.

sold my position. it doesn't seem to have the same kind of momo juice anymore. the drop at the close is troubling.

Quote from: zibeaster on January 04, 2007, 04:02:06 PM
sold my position. it doesn't seem to have the same kind of momo juice anymore. the drop at the close is troubling.

Volume was weak and it really never could rally.  Hard sell-off at the end.  Stopped out as well....but a profit none the less.

If it tags trendline and bounces TOMORROW I will consider buying again.

nuts! i leave for lunch for an hour and it tanks! no more lunch breaks for me!  . nice to see you guys made it out, i'm still in the green but not by much.

Quote from: alchemist on January 04, 2007, 05:40:57 PM
nuts! i leave for lunch for an hour and it tanks! no more lunch breaks for me!  . nice to see you guys made it out, i'm still in the green but not by much.

We ended up with with an kind of an ugly candle...but I think that 14.45 should provide support.  I think daytraders bailed at the end of the day....which includes me I guess

We had this type of candle before and FFHL rallied.  It may happen again...but I think it has to rally tomorrow if we're going to see $17 any time soon.

past two consolidations were two day drops. today's move is not impressive at all. it suppose to rally. once people realize there is no momo left, they will jump ship. I am looking at $13 now.

I will watch it closely tomorrow. need some convincing action for sure.

picked up some FFHL. it is bottoming imo

buying more at low $13s. it is at least a safe play

Quote from: zibeaster on January 10, 2007, 03:50:47 PM
buying more at low $13s. it is at least a safe play

Are you trying to convince yourself?

Quote from: 422fwhp on January 11, 2007, 05:06:42 AM
Are you trying to convince yourself?

LOL, it sure sounds like that. I took a full position at low 13s.  my feeling is, even if it goes down more, it is not much more.

Looks like this downtrend is here to stay. Maybe it will start reversing in a week or so.

OK, to further convince myself, I am posting this.

We like to play stocks that gave us big wins before, even though it may not be the right time or same play anymore. I am wondering if this is the case for FFHL. Hopefully it is not and FFHL still have value in a quick swing. I think I personally tried too hard to play the FFHL momentum again. I have done this before and lost money on subsequent plays and turned 100% gain into a 50% gain. So it is beneficial to try to think this through as objectively as possible.

Fundamentally, We know it makes 59cents and will be 25% to 30% higher in revenue this year. If they make 0.75 this year, that makes current forward PE of 17.3 at the price of $13. I think market can fully support this price, so if you are a long term holder, there is nothing to worry about it.

I believe for a quality Chinese stock (I really mean reliable, there are companies that give you fraudulent numbers) should command a forward PEG ratio of 1. This is because of two reasons,

1) The country is growing at 10% a year; this adds the credibility to the growth estimate (or may be the growth estimate already reflects it?)

2) The currency appreciation in next few years. This means higher EPS when converted into US dollars. Of course this can be offset somewhat by raw material cost if they import.

In FFHL's case, if the raw material costs come down, its margin will improve. So this year's EPS can be higher than 0.75.  If we just use 0.75, using a growth rate of 25%, we get $18.75.

So fundamentally, FFHL is as sound as any other stock. We shouldn't worry about buying 50 cents or a dollar lower at all.

Now if we want to milk every penny out of the stock, which we shouldn't but like to do ,  I got chart below



FFHL was rising along the trend line 2. At candle A, it put in a low of 14.50. It attempted to rally next day and failed. That was a sign that things has changed and I sold  and thinking to stay at sidelines until the trend changes again.

At candle B, I thought it was a bottom because it was at some Fibonacci point of that big white candle on Dec 28. If we were to reverse, it better do it then because further drop will damage the up trend. I  bought and the next day it went up before it dropped down near the open. The good thing is, I sold half at the top and the other half stopped out at $14.70. so a good profit.

At candle C, I thought again it was a bottom because it dropped near $13, which is very close to support line 3. For good stocks, you never wait until exactly at the support because you may miss it. I bought again and next day (today), it went up again before drops back. Today we are not at the support line 3 yet, but close. So I think this may be a bottom again

History suggests I am a serial bottom caller on this one and can not be trusted . But that is what happens if you try to catch the bottom. At least, in previous occasions, they all are valid trading bottoms (even though it is only one day), People have enough chance to get out next day and make a profit, which I did. .

Right now, a bottom can only be more reliably called if FFHL crosses above the trend line 1. If we stay around $13, we will do that in a few days. If we break support line 3, if it is not a fake break, we may go to $11 or support line 4. The tough part is, you only know it is a real break after it happens. That is unpleasant and if you think it can happen, reduced it tomorrow morning

Ok, this is basically an exercise of self analysis to learn from mistakes and figure out what to do next. I feel better now after this exercise. My plan is hold and stay put. Hope this did not bore you.