3SOF

GIGM gapping up PM today on this news:

GigaMedia Licenses Cash-Wager MahJong to Online Entertainment Leader Carmen Media Group
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061222/hkf003.html?.v=36

Thy have released a lot of solid PRs in the week or so, and the price has still struggled.  Lets see if this one proveds the oomph to get GIGM over its hump.  Currently 10.49 PM, up 5.8%.  Todays key resistance should be between 10.65 and 10.75.  Oh and as always, $11 - a move above here would be a very nice christmas present 

This chart has so many patterns, it's a good candidate for Morphology 101 class. 

A print of 10.37 today would be a technical breakout of the Falling Wedge (pattern in blue)

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 17, 2007, 09:04:28 AM
A print of 10.37 today would be a technical breakout of the Falling Wedge (pattern in blue)

Bought GIGM at 10.07.  There's the technical breakout, at 10.37.

ROTH CAPITAL INITIATES COVERAGE WITH BUY, $15 TARGET
S&P Marketscope - January 17, 2007 10:15 AM ET

Analyst Todd Eilers believes co. poised to deliver above-average revenue, EPS growth for next several years driven by further penetration of European I-gaming markets, increased casual game operations in Asia, expansion of its real-money, I-gaming platform into Asian markets... Notes while rest of I-gaming industry scrambling to survive after passage of Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act, subsequent loss of US customers, expects GIGM to continue to deliver record results as a result of never having any exposure to US market... Sees $0.33 '06 EPS, $0.53 '07.

again positive news:
GigaMedia Acquires Majority Ownership of Leading Online Sports Game Operator in China

Jan 18, 2007 08:05:00 (ET)


SHANGHAI, China. Jan 18, 2007 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- GigaMedia Limited (''GigaMedia'' or the ''Company'') (GIGM, Trade ) announced today it has entered into agreements to acquire majority ownership of T2CN Holding Limited (''T2CN''), a leading online sports and casual game operator in China.

This highly strategic acquisition establishes GigaMedia as a leader in one of the world's largest and fastest growing online game markets.

''T2CN is the number one online sports game portal in China, operating the market's most successful online sports game ever,'' stated GigaMedia CEO Arthur Wang. ''T2CN provides GigaMedia with a tremendous platform in one of the most important markets in the world. We are very excited.''

T2CN has distinguished itself as China's leading online casual sports game company and operates FreeStyle, the most popular online sports game ever in China. Led by a management team with a strong track record in China's online game industry, T2CN has developed close marketing partnerships with premiere international brands including Coca-Cola, Nike and Nokia.

The T2CN acquisition is the latest step in GigaMedia's plan to build a dominant online entertainment platform in Asia and follows GigaMedia's recent strategic investment in Infocomm Asia Holdings, a Southeast Asian online game leader based in Singapore.

''We are building leading positions in online game markets across Asia - driving growth and creating synergies in sourcing, marketing and operations,'' explained GigaMedia CEO Arthur Wang. ''No other company has this kind of reach in Asia.''

Under the terms of the transaction announced today, GigaMedia will purchase up to 18.3 million shares of T2CN -- equivalent to 40.3 percent of the outstanding common shares of T2CN -- for a total consideration of US$22.9 million, subject to adjustment based upon T2CN financial performance in the first half of 2007.

Pursuant to GigaMedia's May 2006 initial investment into T2CN, GigaMedia also holds (a) convertible preferred shares of T2CN which may be converted into an additional 15 million common shares of T2CN; and (b) an option to purchase an additional 4.3 million common shares of T2CN -- with both (a) and (b) exercisable beginning in May 2007.

Upon conversion of all preferred shares and exercise of this option, GigaMedia's ownership stake in T2CN will be approximately 51.9 percent.

GigaMedia expects initially to equity account the acquisition of T2CN until such time as its common share ownership exceeds 50 percent.

The transaction is expected to be accretive to GigaMedia's 2007 results.

GigaMedia will make payment in two tranches: approximately half at closing (expected to be in February 2007) and the remaining portion expected in August 2007. Payment consideration will include a small component of approximately 200,000 GigaMedia shares. These shares will be newly issued and contain a one-year restriction on transfer.

The transaction is subject to customary closing conditions. Management expects the transaction to close in February.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 17, 2007, 09:45:39 AM
Bought GIGM at 10.07.  There's the technical breakout, at 10.37.

GIGM sure doesn't score any style points for this sloppy breakout. 

It closed at 10.32 that day, back below the pattern.   

Then it went down to 10.10, and closed inside the pattern again. 

Then it did a "Gap To Crap," at 10.79, and came back to the pattern again. 

Yesterday was the first decent day since the breakout.

The subject line was "Joining The Party."  I thought a change might help. 

GIGM is bringing it home over $11, for the first time since the earnings "Mega Gap To Crap" on 8 million shares, on November 9.

We still have some overhang from that candle, no doubt, the high of which was 11.64, but we've got a nice 4-month pattern breakout working in our favor, so hopefully, we're on our way higher toward the targets IN PLAY, into February earnings.  I have to check the date.

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 24, 2007, 06:00:23 AM
The subject line was "Joining The Party."  I thought a change might help. 

I'm trying another subject change.  I like how that one worked out. 

MACD and Volume.......
MACD positive. Appears to have bottomed in December.
Nice Cup shape forming...
Target $13, stop $9.70. Back above the 50-day.

52wk Range: 3.90 - 12.55
Volume: 2,235,848
Avg Vol (3m): 1,196,510
Market Cap: 604.67M
EPS (ttm): 0.40

Technicals
Percentage Gainer

Last Price Quote is:
11.78%above 13-day MA
16.87%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 3 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $604.67
P/E Ratio: 35.09 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Buy

• GigaMedia to buy majority holding in Chinese sports game firm

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 24, 2007, 03:59:33 PM
GIGM is bringing it home over $11, for the first time since the earnings "Mega Gap To Crap" on 8 million shares, on November 9.

We still have some overhang from that candle, no doubt, the high of which was 11.64, but we've got a nice 4-month pattern breakout working in our favor

GIGM finally took out and closed above that 11.64 high, on decent volume: 2.2 million shares.

Completely missed this run.  I think the ugly rally thrgouh the 10s put me off, but now GIGM is looking very strong once again.  Its real hard for me to buy at these levels, even though this looks to me like the next major leg up for GIGM.  The 1 year chart shows this nicely.  Maybe I should just accept I missed the best entry and take on the added risk.

This article talks about what we have already known for a long time, that GIGM has a big lead in one of the largest potential gaming markets in the world, but they're right, they won't have exclusive reign over this market for long as other players start to come in:

http://biz.yahoo.com/indie/070130/595_id.html?.v=1

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 17, 2007, 09:45:39 AM
Bought GIGM at 10.07. 

Sold ½ my position of GIGM at 12.55.  Gain: 24.6%

Hold the other ½ position long.

The Bullish Falling Wedge target of 12.55 MADE.

Quote from: ScottishTrader on February 01, 2007, 09:03:47 AM
Completely missed this run.  I think the ugly rally thrgouh the 10s put me off, but now GIGM is looking very strong once again.  Its real hard for me to buy at these levels, even though this looks to me like the next major leg up for GIGM. 

Scotsman,

In an uptrend like this, often there are nice little bullish continuation breakouts, like the two in this chart in GIGM, and  likethe Bull Flag breakout yesterday in XING. 

Those are nice entries, and you can put your stop right under them.

Why You Shouldn't Sell.......
By Brian Richards and Tim Hanson
"You know less than you think you do."

That's a conclusion from behavioral economist James Montier. What's he talking about? That whether you know it or not, you're making big mistakes with your money. And that over time, they will cost you.

Dearly.

Stock madness
Think we're exaggerating? Consider: Performance-chasing in mutual funds has gotten so bad that Morningstar has created an "investor returns" category to account for the problem of investors buying funds when they're hot and selling when they're not. The difference between fund returns and investor returns can be startling -- as much as 20 percentage points.

Abby normal?
Even if you're not into funds, your emotions are costing you money. Ever heard of loss aversion? It's the practice of holding onto losers in the hopes they'll turn.

In another study, Professor Terrance Odean found that while investors held losing stocks for a median of 124 days, they held winning stocks for just 102 days. Moreover, investors were 1.7 times as likely to sell their winner.

In other words, investors are cutting winners off early and letting losers ride. That's the antithesis of a successful investment formula.

Alas, this madness can be explained. As master fund manager Ron Muhlenkamp puts it, "For most people 'The Game of the Stock Market' is a distraction which prevents them from making money in 'The Business of Investing.'"

That's why you only hear your buddies talk about their winners at cocktail parties. In the "The Game of the Stock Market," losers don't exist. But in "The Business of Investing," they're the reason why those same buddies haven't yet retired.

Small consolation: The pros aren't immune
Professional investors suffer from loss aversion, too, according to research from Andrea Frazzini. Pros were 1.2 times as likely to sell a winning stock rather than a losing stock. While not quite as bad as the 1.7 of the average Joe, these guys and gals supposedly earn their paychecks staying calm, cool, and collected!

So what's the solution? Easy. Simply enroll in one of those color-coded day-trading workshops coming soon to an airport Sheraton near you.

Not really.

The actual solution is so simple that you won't believe it when we tell you. So we're not going to tell you -- at least, not yet.

Let's lead with an example
In January 2003, 810 stocks rose more than 10%. Since then, 450 of them -- or 56% -- have continued to beat the market. A whopping 384, including Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO), Finisar (Nasdaq: FNSR), Dynegy (NYSE: DYN), Sepracor (Nasdaq: SEPR), and ViroPharma (Nasdaq: VPHM) have more than doubled. And 36, including Deckers Outdoor (Nasdaq: DECK) and GigaMedia (Nasdaq: GIGM), are up an additional 1,000% or more.

You'd sure be shooting yourself today if you'd sold one of those to preserve a 10% gain.

The lesson? Quick trigger fingers aren't rewarded. While any stock may give back gains, the big bucks are made by finding winners like Deckers or GigaMedia early on and letting them ride.

Be brash. Be boring.
So what's the solution? Buy to hold. Of course, be sure to buy to hold the types of stocks that can be bought to hold. Stocks that are:

1. Reasonably priced.
2. Well-managed.
3. Poised to grow.

you are still holding setravis?

new 52 week high 
(sold too early @ 12.96 a few days before... )

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 17, 2007, 09:45:39 AM
Bought GIGM at 10.07. 

Sold ½ my position of GIGM at 12.55.  Gain: 24.6%

Hold the other ½ position long.

Sold my remaining ½ position in GIGM for 12.69.  Gain: 26%.