3SOF

Quote from: joet on October 11, 2006, 11:04:07 AM
Yo Melf
Great play on ATI,  I never entered...    Your "feelings" were  bullish on both ATI and BRCD when the where struggling.

Thanks, Joe.   

I felt that way because both ATI and BRCD looked like Bullish Consolidation/Continuation patterns after gains of over 100% in each stock.  Both eventually had bullish breakouts.

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Do you have any other hunches currently.

Over the years, I've learned not to play my hunches or my opinions.    

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Check out my post on BOBJ when you get a chance

We've got so many folders, I don't get a chance to read very many of them, so I apologize if I don't get to it.

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Is there such a pattern as a Bullish island reversal?

Yes.  BOBJ had a Bullish Island Reversal on July 27. 

The implication is that it's very bullish if the gap isn't filled, and it wasn't.  Just like the Symmetrical Triangle in ATI...the October 5 Bullish Breakaway Gap wasn't filled, and the stock raced higher and MADE the two targets today.

BOBJ  is up 90% since the Bullish Island Reversal, so it's very extended on the upside.  That doesn't mean that it won't go higher, but it makes it difficult to set up a favorable risk:reward if you aren't in it already.

Good luck!

Hi Melf,

Still in, still looking great. I've changed the TL (now lower one, other one seems to risky although it is still holding too I guess...standing at $ 70,88 and rising $ 1,75 might be too steep) to lock in profits. It stands at $61,39 and rises $ 0,30 every day 

Good luck,
Amarens

Quote from: setravis on October 09, 2006, 07:11:01 PM
Chart looks like it's through consolidating and ready to move higher... 
Fairly conservative play with some good upside potential. Liberal stop in order to try and hold for several months.
With this bull chart, I think I would just go ahead and target the high of $87.50 it set
May 11,2006. JMHO of course,I think it's ready to set a new high.

This is one of the only metals companies that makes alloys able to withstand the tremendous pressures of very deep ocean oil drilling without crushing under the pressure. They may get a lot more business as deep oil drilling starts to gain more favor. Also, the PE ration is way under the earnings growth rate making it cheap.

Business Overview.............  
BRIEF: For the six months ended 30 June 2006, Allegheny Technologies Incorporated's revenues rose 26% to $2.25B. Net income rose 59% to $242.9M. Revenues reflect an increase in sales of High Performance Metals segment due to higher demand from aerospace & defence market and a rise in sales of Engineered Products segment due to increased volume & higher selling prices. Net income also reflects an increase in operating margins and lower net interest expense. http://www.alleghenytechnologies.com/

As Melf has already pointed out the breakout of the Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) pattern.

Just my two cents worth.....

Also we have , patterns with  patterns.

Ascending Triangle (Continuation).............Breakout
The ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern. There are instances when ascending triangles form as reversal patterns at the end of a downtrend, but they are typically continuation patterns. Regardless of where they form, ascending triangles are bullish patterns that indicate accumulation.

Because of its shape, the pattern can also be referred to as a right-angle triangle. Two or more equal highs form a horizontal line at the top. Two or more rising troughs form an ascending trend line that converges on the horizontal line as it rises. If both lines were extended right, the ascending trend line could act as the hypotenuse of a right triangle. If a perpendicular line were drawn extending down from the left end of the horizontal line, a right triangle would form.

In contrast to the symmetrical triangle, an ascending triangle has a definitive bullish bias before the actual breakout. If you will recall, the symmetrical triangle is a neutral formation that relies on the impending breakout to dictate the direction of the next move. On the ascending triangle, the horizontal line represents overhead supply that prevents the security from moving past a certain level. It is as if a large sell order has been placed at this level and it is taking a number of weeks or months to execute, thus preventing the price from rising further. Even though the price cannot rise past this level, the reaction lows continue to rise. It is these higher lows that indicate increased buying pressure and give the ascending triangle its bullish bias

Quote from: Amarens on October 12, 2006, 11:12:52 AM
Hi Melf,

Still in,

Amarens,

Good for you! 

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still looking great.

It sure is!  It's been on an upside screamer since putting in Data Point #4 on October 4, at 59.82.  It's up seven days in a row, including today, and is up well over 20% from that low. 

That's how a stock "should" act when it has multiple pattern breakouts, like we had. 

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other one seems to risky although it is still holding too I guess...standing at $ 70,88 and rising $ 1,75 might be too steep) to lock in profits

I agree that the sharp trendline is too risky.  In the Hourly Chart, there were 4 hits to that trendline, validating it as support, but we can see that it got broken yesterday, and that ATI powered higher again today.

Nothing wrong with using that trendline to take profits, if anyone did.  Or, with taking some profits today, since it's extended.  "A gain is a gain," and it all depends on how one likes to take profits.  But, it's  forcing a stock to adhere to a very steep trendline, and that isn't very realistic.

It all depends on how you like to take profits.

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Good luck

Good luck to you, too!   

I am also looking for some shorts to hold as i see the entire market quite optimistic currently.  I shorted a few GS at 1.81...   thnking about shorting ATI if the RSI gets above 80.  I am not looking for a major trend reversal, just a 5-10% breather to grab a profit... hmm time will tell  Strategy has worked ok, but caught on the wrong side of AKAM and AAPL
Cheers Joe

*DJ - Allegheny Tech Sees $2.5 Billion Revenue From Pact 2007-2015

Indication: BID 75.88...ASK 76.48...UP $1.62

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 09, 2006, 06:21:22 PM
77.38 also is IN PLAY from the big Symmetrical Triangle breakout.

77.38 MADE at the open. 

Yo Melf great play on ATI... Do you sell your targets as a matter of rule?  I watched this entire run w/o getting on board...  Sure hope INSM has a similar % run soon (but i realize that our target % gain on INSM is less).
Good evening to you
Cheers Joe

Quote from: joet on October 17, 2006, 01:06:07 AM
Yo Melf great play on ATI... Do you sell your targets as a matter of rule? 

Thanks, Joe.  Yes, I sell at least some when targets get MADE, unless it's a minor target, when much higher targets still are IN PLAY.  In a case like yesterday's gap higher panic buying, and rally beyond my last target of 77.38 at the open, I'll let it run a little, but with the intention of "selling into strength." 

Depite yesterday's good news before the open, that kind of gap up, 9th consecutive day of a rally, has the possibility of being what's called an "Exhaustion Gap." 

If for some unknown reason, ATI should gap down today below yesterday's low of 75.35, and not fill the gap during trading, we'll have an Abandoned Baby on the chart, and we know what those babies can be like. 

At any rate, the Bearish-looking Doji Star left on the chart at least suggests the possibility of a pullback, and with all of my upside targets MADE,  I'm out.

Hi Melf,

This was a great run up. I've decided too to take my profits today  . At least that it what I expect. Set my stop at $ 76,00 giving it a little room but not too much  .

Was good to be in this one with you.

Amarens

Quote from: Amarens on October 17, 2006, 08:02:18 AM
This was a great run up. I've decided too to take my profits today  . At least that it what I expect. Set my stop at $ 76,00 giving it a little room but not too much  .

Amarens,

You were in this one before I was, so you've got a real nice gain.  Congratulations!

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Was good to be in this one with you.

Yes, it was great fun!  May all of our trades go this well.   

Forgot to watch this one after all of our upside targets MADE.  So many stocks...so little time.

ATI went into another Symmetrical Triangle, broke out again, and is at a new high for the year, up 144.9% so far, in 2006.  Good pick by Cramer. 

We'll have to watch for his 2007 Stock of the Year. 

Melf Elf thanks for the charting and TA; very cool stuff. 

ATI still seems strong to me after leading the S&P in 2006.  Pulled back from all-time high and ready to climb again.  $60 million in expansion just released today, add that with 4th quarter release on 1/24/07 should make for a new high.

These guys are still spending major bucks to capture market opportunities for Titanium Alloys and other specality metals.  $60 million in cash investments.

Smart move to expand Ti Plate; this is one area the company had little capacity or knowledge.  Huge money in plate, nice market volume, Ti Plate is gaining volume as a Military armor for vechiles and tanks, low competition, helps consume all the Ti sponge capacity they added in oregon and utah (nice and vertical).

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070117/20070117005563.html?.v=1

6-month MACD, RSI, ROC show positive to me.

howdie all
not a subscriber of Cramer, but i heard that he recently picked LMC.  I traded EZM last year some and liked their story, and LMC bought them. 

Metal Head do you follow the Zinc market at all??

LMC is fighting with the 200sma, could be a good entry here around $33 for a longer term hold...

Hmmm you think ATI is still a buy here!  Wow what a run they have had!
Cheers Joe

Quote from: joet on January 18, 2007, 03:42:23 AM
Hmmm you think ATI is still a buy here!

Joe,

Yes.  It broke out again Thursday last.  101.23 is IN PLAY.

I want to see ATI take out 93.14.  That would be another breakout of a "W"-bottom.

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Wow what a run they have had!

Cramer sure got this one right, didn't he?   

EDIT: Sorry, it's 101.18 that's IN PLAY.