3SOF

Quote from: guitarman on January 18, 2007, 12:54:42 PM
Thanks Leaira
I played your pull back and got in at $73.5.
Applause
Now I'm in margin debt big time! LOL

Maybe MGLN is worth looking at too?

Best
GMan

G-Man,

Did you buy the stock or the call options?

I didn't get in yet.  I didn't want to buy on a down day like today -- too much selling pressure.  I see that the stock went down below the 10EMA and came back just below it, but still on high volume.  This might go down to bounce off the 20EMA at about 71.75 before continuing the uptrend.  I'll buy the call options if it does that. 

I'll prolly get them for about $4 a share (70 calls, that is) if the stock is at 71.75.  The open interest is 102, so it's barely high enough for me to consider it.  I won't get any more than 10 contracts.  The 75 calls have more open interest, but the delta isn't quite high enough cuz they're out of the money.

Maybe I'd be better off doing a bull put spread, like the Feb 70/65.  There's $1.05 natural credit in it right now.  There would be more if it comes down more, but I'd wait for a bounce off the 20EMA.

Leaira

Quote from: Leaira on January 18, 2007, 09:43:27 PM

Quote from: guitarman on January 18, 2007, 12:54:42 PM
Thanks Leaira
I played your pull back and got in at $73.5.
Applause
Now I'm in margin debt big time! LOL

Maybe MGLN is worth looking at too?

Best
GMan

G-Man,

Did you buy the stock or the call options?

I didn't get in yet.  I didn't want to buy on a down day like today -- too much selling pressure.  I see that the stock went down below the 10EMA and came back just below it, but still on high volume.  This might go down to bounce off the 20EMA at about 71.75 before continuing the uptrend.  I'll buy the call options if it does that. 

I'll prolly get them for about $4 a share (70 calls, that is) if the stock is at 71.75.  The open interest is 102, so it's barely high enough for me to consider it.  I won't get any more than 10 contracts.  The 75 calls have more open interest, but the delta isn't quite high enough cuz they're out of the money.

Maybe I'd be better off doing a bull put spread, like the Feb 70/65.  There's $1.05 natural credit in it right now.  There would be more if it comes down more, but I'd wait for a bounce off the 20EMA.

Leaira

Leaira,

You sound like a veritable options guru now 
Seems like you have been really doing your homework, and doing well also?
Can you suggest some resources and or books on the subject that you felt were the best?

Quote from: elliemae on January 18, 2007, 08:29:13 PM
WCG always retraces some when healthcare cuts are in the media, however, WCG is not like the UNH's and WLP's that supply individuals bare bones healthcare to self payors that want minimum coverage, WCG has relationships/contracts with State funded and federal programs like Medicaid and Medicare.  WCG is growing!!  Don't listen to the noise, buy low and buy lower if you have to, because this will be a monster company in the long run.  

I fully agree with elliemae, and the fundamental trends show just that:



Technically it is possible for WCG to go down to the 50 days SMA, or even lower, as it has done that in the past, as you can see on the chart below. But, given the fundamental trends, I expect it to rise 40 or 50% for the full year 2007.

I'll keep holding this great stock.

As you can see on the graph below, the 4th quarter is expected to be the best ever for WCG in EPS terms:



This on top of an already extremely strong 3rd quarter. However, 1Q 2007 estimates are for a sharp decline, from $1.33 this quarter to $0.49 on Q1 2007.

I wonder why ... there are less analysts estimating that quarter too. Anyway, estimates for the full year 2007 are for EPS of $3.98, but I think there's room to surprise on the upside, as the company has been doing that every quarter:



Technically we had a little bounce on Friday, but nothing significant. I'll continue holding WCG.

WCG is holding quite well in the face of a weak general market, because it is a health related undervalued growth stock. It doesn't depend on the economic condition of the country (at least not in cyclical terms).

I'll keep holding WCG. 

There was a report out yesterday saying Barclays Global Investors owns 2,798,588 shares of WCG, or 6.87% of the company.

I think they're smart in buying/holding WCG. I'll keep holding the stock.

Nothing new on WCG today, pushing higher as it should. I'll hold.

Remember we didn't check WCG's balance sheet? Well, here it is:





I think it is a fairly normal balance sheet for a $3 B company like WCG.

WCG is a great stock but it doesn't go up everyday, just on average. I'll keep holding it.
   

Learn more about WCG's business on their website: www.wellcare.com

Nothing new on the technical front and no news out. I'll keep holding WCG.

Yesterday WCG closed at a new all time high of $76.94. Just sit tight and let the profits run.

Nothing new on WCG, just HOLD.

2007 earnings estimates are $3.98 EPS for WCG. So, the current forward earnings multiple is $77.48/$3.98 = 19.47.

The Health Care Plans industry average is 18.

But, WCG is growing revenues by 103% from the prior year and the industry is growing just 13%. That's why I consider it cheap.

Another new all time high yesterday. Just sit tight and keep holding.

Another day, another new all time high for WCG. And when this $3 B market cap company moves, it won't undo that move easily. It is a safe investment.

I have a 5.36% profit on WCG and of course I'll keep holding.

WCG stock has been rising on average, but understandably it's not able to rise everyday. On Friday it went down 1.49% on profit taking.

Earnings will be out on February 13, after the market close. I'll keep holding through earnings, the stock is still undervalued and I expect analysts to start raising those 2007 earnings estimates, which look too low to me, standing at $3.98 EPS.

WCG touched the previous resistance, now support level of $76.73, I think it is getting ready for another bull run.

Anyway, whatever happens to the share price over the short term, this is a business I want to hold for the long term, as I think elliemae is right, this company can be a $100 B giant 10 years from now, as they expand operations from the current 8 states to the whole country.