3SOF

I don't know what has made this thing jump 40% today, but it looks interesting

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=nich,uu[r,a]daclyyay[dc][pb5!b10!b20!b50!d20,2!h.02,.20!f][vc60][iut!Lb14!Ld20!Ll14!La12,26,9!Lm10!Lj[$spx]]&pref=G

Here is an interesting analysis I swiped from another site:

I think the fundamental difference between those doing fundamental work on the long side and those doing it on the short side is the disagreement as to whether this quarter is repeatable or not. I think it is repeatable and I invite you to call the CEO if you do not believe me. But even if you are too lazy (or don't have a big enough stake) to do the work to call the company. Here's a simple analysis that might convince you.

Last quarter Niches revenue grew from $6.3 million to $14.7 million and reported $.75 cents per share in pro forma EPS. Some of that growth was organic and some of it was due to the acquisition of Designer Intimates.

"Consolidated net sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2006 increased 132% to $14.7 million versus $6.3 million for the first quarter of 2005. Net sales contributed by the Company's newly acquired Designer Intimates business totaled $6.4 million. At November 30, 2005, the Company had unfilled customer orders of $23.4 million compared to $13.0 million at the same time last year, with such orders generally scheduled for delivery by May 2006 and May 2005, respectively. The increase of $10.4 million is due primarily to the additional orders being reported as a result of the acquisition of Designer Intimates."

Now you will note that only $6.4 million of the quarter's increase was due to the acquisition (that's because they acquired them in the middle of the quarter and therefore only get to report half of the revenues from Designer Intimates during the quarter) whereas total revenue growth was $8.4 million (meaning Niches grew $2 million, or 33% organically in addition to the acquisition growth)

So the question is, can Designer Intimates continue to contribute that kind of revenue to Niches given the fact that this is traditionally a very strong quarter? But wait a second, we already got that answer in the second part of the paragraph: "...At November 30, 2005, the Company had unfilled customer orders of $23.4 million compared to $13.0 million at the same time last year, with such orders generally scheduled for delivery by May 2006 and May 2005, respectively. The increase of $10.4 million is due primarily to the additional orders being reported as a result of the acquisition of Designer Intimates."

Given that that backlog is for two quarters, I simply divide that in half to get $5.2 million and compare it to the the $6.4 million that Designer Intimates was able to contribute for half of the last quarter and that's pretty close for a backlog.

I'll even go one step simpler, look at the paragraph again "Consolidated net sales for the first quarter of fiscal 2006 increased 132% to $14.7 million versus $6.3 million for the first quarter of 2005. Net sales contributed by the Company's newly acquired Designer Intimates business totaled $6.4 million. At November 30, 2005, the Company had unfilled customer orders of $23.4 million compared to $13.0 million at the same time last year, with such orders generally scheduled for delivery by May 2006 and May 2005, respectively. The increase of $10.4 million is due primarily to the additional orders being reported as a result of the acquisition of Designer Intimates."

So wait, your revenues for the quarter were $14.7 million but your backlog for the next two quarters (excluding any new sales) is already $23.4 million?

As to Niches ability to beat its backlog read historically: "As of February 28, 2005, the Company had on-hand unfilled customer orders of $10.7 million as compared to $8.8 million at February 29, 2004, with such orders generally scheduled for delivery by August 2005 and 2004, respectively."

And then in the next two quarters it did $7.2 million and $6.1 million, for a total of $13.3 million in actual revenues versus its backlog 2 quarters prior of $10.7 million. Like a normal company, they close additional sales during the actual quarters.

Sounds to me like the last quarter is very repeatable.

NICH did 75 cents in earnings last quarter (25 cents per quarter post split = $1.00 in EPS per year)

At less than 4x Earnings with revenue growing and its comps DIII and Kellwood trading at 13x earnings, you have a huge bargain here

This thread was earlier!

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4394.0

Heads up on NICH....

They came out with excellent numbers this morning and after gapping up the price has come down for a good risk/reward ratio trade.
7.50 looking like a good support for now.

In at 7.59.

It will go down, I know.

Did anyone else get in?.....
I know guys, that black ugly tall candle doesn't look so good but I believe with the  numbers they reported this morning it should bounce back to the 9 area soon; if not, I should be looking to get out if 7 does not hold.

I was almost tempted to double down when it hit 7.40.

Quote from: superstockgenious on January 23, 2007, 04:01:43 PM
It will go down, I know.

Who's this GUY

Quote from: bocasva on January 23, 2007, 04:08:27 PM
Did anyone else get in?.....
I know guys, that black ugly tall candle doesn't look so good but I believe with the  numbers they reported this morning it should bounce back to the 9 area soon; if not, I should be looking to get out if 7 does not hold.

I was almost tempted to double down when it hit 7.40.

I didn't buy.  I'm never a fan of black candles...and it's close to a double top.

If the fundamentals justify a move up...I would wait for the 9ema to catch up to price after a black candle.

Out at 7.41....not looking good