3SOF

I had filled 3/4 of a position in CPNE at $2.29 but today I bought another 1/4 at $2.70, which is the middle of Friday's candle. Hope there is not much consolidation gonna happen hence forward.

When can CPNE get rid of .OB? 

David, I guess I was over-concerned when you started the new "on fire" portfolio. The way you did over there actually helps main porfolio too. Great job! You are a superman. 

I bought on the dip as well. Picked up another 5k shares at 2.65

The downside had to happen today for it to go forward as we all have learned having patience is what will make us stronger and better investors.    I am going to enjoy the ride the whole way up! 

Quote from: realcoolhead on February 05, 2007, 10:54:19 AM
When can CPNE get rid of .OB? 

David, I guess I was over-concerned when you started the new "on fire" portfolio. The way you did over there actually helps main porfolio too. Great job! You are a superman. 

I'm not sure what the requirements are from removing the OB. Does anybody know the requirements CPNE.OB has to have to get rid of the OB? Maybe they will bring up that progress at earnings.

has CPNE announced any intentions for moving to Nasdaq global market (getting off the buuletin board). If so, dif they announce a time frame, when they expect to move.

Thanks

A somewhat off-topic inquiry:

Does anyone on this board know anything about how successful this 'dropship' sales business really can be for someone? I've seen these eBay 'Powersellers' and have read testimonials from folks who use dropship services, but it's hard for me to fathom how one can really make money without selling a ton of stuff. Anyone here knowledgable or successful at using dropship services such as the type that CPNE engages in?

hey David, how do you go about valuing a company's 'fair value'. You said CPNE.OB is worth $14...how'd you figure that?

Quote from: realcoolhead on February 05, 2007, 10:54:19 AM
When can CPNE get rid of .OB?

David, I guess I was over-concerned when you started the new "on fire" portfolio. The way you did over there actually helps main porfolio too. Great job! You are a superman.

Lol realcoolhead, don't you lose your cool head, you know the recent pace of gains can't be maintained over the long run (unfortunately). Anyway, it's encouraging to read your words, especially from you.

When will CPNE.OB get rid of the OB? I didn't found any plans for that, but CPNE.OB can do as FRPT.OB, surpass $1 B in market cap and only then move to the Nasdaq. To get rid of the OB CPNE needs to file an application to trade on the Nasdaq, but that doesn't change the fundamental value of the company or its prospects, so it can go up by a lot even while it is trading on the OTCBB, no problems with that.

Quote from: kpunarc on February 05, 2007, 10:56:34 PM
hey David, how do you go about valuing a company's 'fair value'. You said CPNE.OB is worth $14...how'd you figure that?

With estimates and "fair" earnings multiple comparisons.

For example, CPNE.OB had EPS of $0.06 in Q3, so if it maintains that (we know from the press releases it will grow, by a lot, from that basis) for the next 3 quarters, it will show an EPS of $0.24 on an annual basis. 

Google is the only company out there (at least that I know of) with comparable gross and net profit margins (yet Google margins are lower than CPNE.OB) and it is valued at a forward earnings multiple of 36.

Without considering growth, CPNE.OB should be trading at 36*$0.24 = $8.64.

But we know there's growth. I made an estimate for the 4th quarter of $0.0964 EPS, as you can read on page 1 of this thread. If the company maintains that (but, we know it is growing even more), for 4 quarters in a row, it will show EPS of $0.3856. Apply the same earnings multiple of 36 and get a price per share of $13.88 (that's why I wrote the stock is worth about $14 a share!).

The news yesterday says paid memberships grew 25% in January when compared to December. But that's below the 50% monthly growth rate the company experienced in December, when compared to November, and perhaps that can explain part of yesterday's 8% share price drop. Of course, the main explanation must be profit taking, but decelerating growth always makes some people sell ... but that's a non sense, it is obvious the company couldn't keep on growing new paid memberships 50% every month, that is impossible !

For now I'm going to stick with about $0.10 EPS a quarter, that is, $0.40 EPS in 2007, and a fair earnings multiple of 36, due to the company's fat gross and net profit margins. That means $14.4 a share to be achieved during the course of 2007, and I'll keep holding for as long as my expectation is confirmed by incoming developments.

thanks!

Does anyone know what percentage of stock is owned by the insiders? I can't seem to find this info anywhere.

Thanks

I am confused. The 91,729 of memberships in January is the total number of memberships correct? Some postings suggest that it is 91,729 new memberships. Still 91,729 memberships X $50 = $4,586,450 in revenues for just one of their businesses for one month.

From RB

http://www.amalfiresearch.com/report/CPNE1.pdf

Nice report! Its good to see a honest stock report where the people doing the reporting are not getting compensated.

Quote from: eggman11 on February 06, 2007, 02:48:33 PM
Does anyone know what percentage of stock is owned by the insiders? I can't seem to find this info anywhere.

Thanks

Well, just the CEO, Michael Hill, personally owns 10,150,806 shares, that is, roughly 21% of the company. You can find this info in an SEC form filed in October 18, 2006.

It talks there about convertible preferred shares, but then there's no information on the Q3 balance sheet, I'll have to dig that further.

Quote from: eggman11 on February 06, 2007, 06:23:34 PM
I am confused. The 91,729 of memberships in January is the total number of memberships correct? Some postings suggest that it is 91,729 new memberships. Still 91,729 memberships X $50 = $4,586,450 in revenues for just one of their businesses for one month.

I'm also confused. The press releases are contradictory:

«Commerce Planet's Consumer Loyalty Group Announces All-Time Records for New Memberships
Tuesday December 12, 7:00 am ET

«Commerce Planet, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: CPNE - News) announced today that its subsidiary, Consumer Loyalty Group, enrolled an all-time daily record of 3,466 paid memberships for December 6th, 2006. In addition, the week of December 4th set a new all-time weekly record for membership signups of 19,600.»

eggman11, I guess you're an American, tell me if "New", "enrolled" and "signups" mean new or existing memberships?

Then, on the latest press release, it says:

«Commerce Planet's Consumer Loyalty Group Sets New Record for Monthly Memberships; Fourth Consecutive Month of Order Growth
Monday February 5, 7:00 am ET »

«GOLETA, Calif., Feb. 5 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Commerce Planet, Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: CPNE - News) announced today that its wholly owned subsidiary, Consumer Loyalty Group, Inc. enrolled an all-time monthly record of 91,729 paid memberships for January 2007. This represented another astounding month- over-month increase in memberships from December of over 25% and over 90% from November.»

So, increase in memberships or increase in the increase of memberships?

I'm also totally confused by this. Also, on their website, www.onlinesupplier.com it talks about 740,000 people and on boatguy's link it talks about 1 million costumers.

I think the information is contradictory, if someone could call their investor relations it would be great (if nobody does it, I'll do it myself, but not today, I won't be home today).

But still, as you say, even if that's the total number of memberships, numbers still look great.

Quote from: boatguy on February 06, 2007, 08:48:02 PM
From RB

http://www.amalfiresearch.com/report/CPNE1.pdf

Thanks for the link boatguy, I read it carefully.

Quote from: nullzero on February 06, 2007, 10:36:43 PM
Nice report! Its good to see a honest stock report where the people doing the reporting are not getting compensated.

Well, they're getting compensation, and not a small one:



I think it is incredible what companies pay for this kind of profile coverage. I should do a business like Amalfi Research, instead of 3 Stocks, would make a lot more income, lol, just kidding

The report doesn't make me more bullish on the stock, it makes me less bullish Therefore, I reduce my 2007 price target, from $14 to $12 hehehe

I'll continue holding CPNE.OB.

I purchased some of this stock based on the analysis given on this thread. Yesterday I went ahead and searched through their website, specifically that consumer loyalty group site.

http://www.consumerloyaltygroup.com/programs.html

I started clicking on the links and only a couple seemed real.  Others were either pointers to the same link or just broken.  I wasn't sure what to think.  I'm not debating any of the information David dug up, I'm left to assume the SEC filings are accurate and the other information that's been posted here, etc.  But it made me nervous about the legitimacy of the information.  I work for a start-up and know that a poor website is the last thing you want to show the world, so to see such shoddy work and yet see them report millions in revenues didn't make sense to me.  Perhaps I've looked in the wrong place, and made come away with a poor opinion for the wrong reasons, but it did make me nervous enough to dump my shares and use the funds elsewhere.

Likely, this is a clear indication that the stock is about to triple.

I'll be happy to buy back in this board has some soothing words to share about this.

thanks and good luck to all,
N