3SOF

TRMM interesting again 2.95 now at top of the day. very interesting on break of 2.95

Quote from: kpusan63 on February 05, 2007, 10:11:39 AM
NVTL

First of all, congrats to boatguy and everybody else that got into NVTL, up 11% now.

Today the stock is dancing around the $12.35 resistance level, trying to breakout, on really heavy volume. I hope it succeeds. But I also note the open was $12.69, so the stock couldn't gain even more strength since the open, at, least, not yet, as it is trading at $12.48.

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $370 M. Provider of wireless broadband access solutions for the worldwide mobile communications market.
- Balance sheet is strong, with a current ratio of 3.63 and $84 M in cash
- Revenue trends are positive, big revenue jump of 38% in Q4 when compared to Q3, to $76 M according to the press release out today
- They offered guidance for 2007, which calls for $330 - $350 M in revenues (so, forward Price to Sales Ratio is about 1, the industry average is 2.28. Also, this revenue estimate is way above the analyst's consensus estimates which were of $258 M in revenues for 07.
- They also talk about Non GAAP earnings guidance of about $0.60 a share, which could translate into a lot lower GAAP number of about $0.30 - $0.40, I don't know.
- So, the comparable forward earnings multiple is about 35.

Can't consider it cheap. I wouldn't buy it here, despite beating estimates and revising guidance a lot higher. Good luck

David, maybe metacafe.com to load videos???

Quote from: marlene on February 05, 2007, 11:29:41 AM
hi david..............what´s about "etlt"

have a nice day..................

Technically ETLT.OB is at a critical point now, as it faces the $0.79 medium term resistance level. I remember covering this stock about a year ago, and the problem them was related to the conversion of their Renminbi reserves to USD, or something like that. Let's see what we have on the fundamental front now:

- $30 M market cap. An agricultural genetics and bio-pharmaceutical company operating in China.
- Balance sheet is incredibly strong, with a current ratio of 13 and working capital of $39.7 M, that's more than the market cap . They claim to have $40.1 M in cash, that's also more than the market cap. Probably that conversion problem remains, I'll have to check the 10-Q form.
- Revenue trends are positive, although revenues declined in Q3 when compared to Q2. The company is quite profitable. I see 12 cents of EPS over the latest 4 quarters. That puts the trailing earnings multiple at 6.4.

So, the stock looks incredibly cheap here. Let me check if they file the proper 10 forms with the SEC ... yes, they do !

This stock reminds me of BBC. Similar sector, similar situation. They look extremely cheap ... too cheap to be true. The market doesn't trust their numbers. I'll have to take a deeper look into ETLT.OB, thanks for the tip, good luck

Quote from: kpusan63 on February 05, 2007, 11:18:10 AM
FORG

Having a good day today .. coming off a recent dip ... I am already in at $1.26 but thought this could be a possible play to watch .. volume is still a bit low but has been slowly trending up

I covered FORG a while back on the Premium area of 3 Stocks. Didn't like it, because I saw everybody excited about revenues that were non recurrent. It reminds of PTSC.OB, another stock that I dislike.

Anyway, here's the video I made on it, perhaps I'm wrong, good luck:

http://video.google.com/googleplayer.swf?docId=-1136344636897386159&hl=en

Quote from: dnickers on February 05, 2007, 11:08:42 AM
Hi David - SLP
Thanks

Technically SLP looks extremely bullish

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $57.8 M. Develops and produces modeling and simulation software for use in pharmaceutical research and for education and also provides contract research services to the pharmaceutical industry. Its subsidiary produces computer software and specialized hardware.
- Balance sheet is ... well, there are no liquidity problems.
- Strange, I don't see any revenue growth ... the company is profitable, but just barely.

What's happening here? I have to check the latest news ...

«Ms. Beran continued: "We're now half way through our second fiscal quarter, which will end on February 28. Pharmaceutical software and services revenues for the quarter are already ahead of last year's second quarter. It appears at this time that our earlier guidance of an expected increase in total revenues of approximately one million dollars for FY07 over FY06 will be achieved in the first two quarters alone. We expect to provide updated guidance after the end of the second quarter."»

It has to do with guidance. So, they'll sell about $2 M more or so, when compared to 2005, where they sold $5.8 M. I think the positive guidance is already priced in by the stock's valuation. I would consider it on a dip though, the business model looks attractive.

David,

Thank you for your great analysis on FORG.  I will be careful here not to let a profit turn into a loss.

BTW, Since I am a very visual person, I love the fundamental bar graph that you used for FORG.  It's a very quick way of looking at the past and current growth/decline.

Quote from: akclide on February 05, 2007, 11:39:10 AM
MTMC picking up vol. price up

Perhaps the stock is developing a double bottom pattern, but it's odd how it came off after that one day spike it had on December 5, 2006.

Reading the financial statements and recent news, I get:

- Market cap is $24.6 M. National provider of innovative information technology ('IT') solutions, including Access, Convergence, Consolidation, Virtualization, and Managed Services.
- Balance sheet is weak, but not terribly so. Working capital is minus $6 M.
- Revenues for the past 4 quarters were an incredible $282 M, so the trailing sales multiple is about 0.09.
- The problem is the company has been losing money every quarter even with these very high revenue numbers. It lost $19 M over the last 4 quarters.

This is an interesting situation, because if the company turns profitable this stock will fly like a rocket ! They will release earnings tomorrow after the close.

Hmm, it's obvious the stock would fall back after the rally on December 5, the news out that day wouldn't change the company's fundamental picture:

• MTM Technologies Awarded Multi-Million Dollar Services Contract by Webster Bank
Business Wire (Tue, Dec 5)

They already had plenty of sales, what they need now is profits.

I could risk some money here, because I think the worst case scenario is already priced in and the stock is moving up ahead of earnings (so, perhaps they'll be above expectations).

I'm thinking if I shouldn't take profits on SILC and put some money to work on this possible rocket. MTMC is more risky, but the short term potential is also higher. Doubts, doubts ... I'll let you know, let me check some more things.

Quote from: kpusan63 on February 05, 2007, 12:55:29 PM
David,

Thank you for your great analysis on FORG.  I will be careful here not to let a profit turn into a loss.

BTW, Since I am a very visual person, I love the fundamental bar graph that you used for FORG.  It's a very quick way of looking at the past and current growth/decline.

Yes, quick way to see fundamental trends, it's a pity that I take about 1 and a half hours to make an analysis like that. Those graphs are "hand" made 

Thanks

One of the recent 3sof picks and still currently in the LT portfolio (OFI) has made IBD's 10 highest rated stocks under 10. Others on the list include some recent suggestions from posters here (PTT, JADE, STTS, and I believe TSTC and BRCD)

http://biz.yahoo.com/special/ibd020507.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/special/ibd020507_article1.html

Stocks must be trading above $15/share to be included in the IBD 100. I think SYX still holds the #1 to #3 position there.

QuoteI could risk some money here, because I think the worst case scenario is already priced in and the stock is moving up ahead of earnings (so, perhaps they'll be above expectations).

I'm thinking if I shouldn't take profits on SILC and put some money to work on this possible rocket. MTMC is more risky, but the short term potential is also higher. Doubts, doubts ... I'll let you know, let me check some more things.

Nah, risk is too high and liquidity is too low. It might give 20 or 30% very fast profit though. Good luck if you hold it, I feel like a chicken.

Quote from: MrChina on February 05, 2007, 11:58:09 AM
TRMM interesting again 2.95 now at top of the day. very interesting on break of 2.95

Indeed MrChina, perhaps its time is arriving, after shaking most weak hands out of the ship (myself included). I sure hope so, as I know some folks kept holding.

Good luck

Not much history on it, but BULK seems to be hot today due to some purchase they made.  I am not in it, just saw it in my scans.

How about PFSW? Moved out of the low .90's Friday to just over a buck today.Was 1.40ish a couple weeks ago. Thanks

I know David already covered TWTR. I think it is real. Its stores are good sizes and the leasehold itself is worth a lot more than 50m market cap. This earnings conf tomorrow will be focused on the turnaround plan, I think they have a good plan. their new store format is already showing profit. me thinking this is a good long term hold.