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David,

Thanks for you advice, it was good advice, however I executed poorly.

Having bought, sold, and bought back in, I'm currently down nearly 50 cents a share on cpne.   Though I now fear further losses, I will remain faithful to your buy/sell advice, though given my basis is now siginficantly higher than the board's I'm a little lost as to what to do next. However seeing that you bought for the Main at these levels, I am comfortable holding.  I await your sage advice, and hope the board will have mercy on me and not mock me for my rookie mistake(s).

Cheers,
N

Quote from: neo1221 on February 09, 2007, 01:27:01 PM
David,

Thanks for you advice, it was good advice, however I executed poorly.

Having bought, sold, and bought back in, I'm currently down nearly 50 cents a share on cpne.   Though I now fear further losses, I will remain faithful to your buy/sell advice, though given my basis is now siginficantly higher than the board's I'm a little lost as to what to do next. However seeing that you bought for the Main at these levels, I am comfortable holding.  I await your sage advice, and hope the board will have mercy on me and not mock me for my rookie mistake(s).

Cheers,
N

neo1221,

Dont worry, none of us will mock you, we have all made our mistakes, I could tell you a litany of mistakes that sound worse than what you made up to this point, and besides, CPNE still looks bullish (touched the bottom of a narrow channel today) so you can still have a happy ending on this one, in which case it wasnt a mistake overall 

QuoteThough I now fear further losses, I will remain faithful to your buy/sell advice, though given my basis is now significantly higher than the board's I'm a little lost as to what to do next.

Do nothing. Sit tight. Sell when I sell. I'm positive you'll make a lot of money on CPNE.OB. I'll be here everyday updating the initial analysis on the stock.

Just relax and don't watch intraday quotes. Focus on something else.

See you on my next update.

Quote from: David Randolph on February 08, 2007, 11:08:53 AM

Quote from: tireslinger on February 08, 2007, 10:50:22 AM
Hello everyone. I bought CPNE for 2.82 per share and was wondering at what price I should take profits. It's had a good run the last few days but that's what makes me nervous. Please only serious investors respond. All nonsense will be ingored.

Don't worry, you'll never get a nonsense reply on this Premium Board.

You need to trust fundamentals to hold a stock for a big profit, because there will always be pressure to make you take a small profit. It's a natural human instinct. Look what Jesse Livermore had to say on the subject, in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator:

«The speculator's chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you you hope that every day will be the last day - and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope - to the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take your profit, and you get out - too soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit. It is absolutely wrong to gamble in stocks the way the average man does.»

David. What is going on with CPNE.OB today?? I didn't see any bad news out so I'm thinking maybe just weekend profit taking. I am going continue holding even though I am back to near break even. No guts NO GLORY!!!!

QuoteDavid. What is going on with CPNE.OB today?? I didn't see any bad news out so I'm thinking maybe just weekend profit taking. I am going continue holding even though I am back to near break even. No guts NO GLORY!!!!

The stock was up 72% over the previous 8 sessions (not counting today), so some profit taking and consolidation must be considered as "normal market action".

You go out there and pick any chart you like, anyone, of a stock that rose 20 fold and you'll see that this type of days and periods ALWAYS happens in EVERY stock.

Unfortunately no stock rises in a straight line. It is hard for a not so experienced trader to hold through the ups and downs for as long as the trend is bullish. But only when he grasps this skill will he be able to make good money trading stocks.

Just sit tight and hold CPNE.OB is what experience tells me to do.

I picked up more shares at 2.97. These drops are huge buying opportunities, not selling ones. Keep them hands strong on your stocks and you will be rewarded in the long term. I love this stock!

I picked some more up at 2.79...after it hit the 9ema.

Quote from: kslifka on February 09, 2007, 04:08:43 PM
I picked some more up at 2.79...after it hit the 9ema.

I wasn't as lucky as you but it should still be good for the long term. I wouldn't think entry point is as critical at this time versus let's say 1 month from now where is could be much more of an issue.

I just picked up 3k more shares today (incrementally) at 2.87 which makes my overall price on 5600 2.95 per. I am a slave to the daily updates now and have much faith in our fearless leader David!

Thanks Dave. I don't see me being shaken out of this one any time soon because this is the first stock that I have been excited about in a long while.  Over the last 2 years I have been investing in small caps and have done well for myself but my biggest problem has always been selling to soon!!! I bought people support PSPT AT 8.60 and then sold at close to 11.00. I bought COGO at 6.04 and sold it at 8.50. There are others but I won't go on. The last time I looked at these stocks COGO was near 18 dollars per share and PSPT is near 23.00 dollars per share. I knew these were good stocks but for some reason I felt pressured into selling them for a quick profit.   Thats where I think this board and service is going to help me out the most. You seem to have a level head and seem to be very confident in your abilities as a stock picker. Thanks for the encouragement and Have a great weekend every one!!!!!

Thanks for your kind words jmccar2 and tireslinger

CPNE.OB has a very profitable business model. They delivered 6 cents EPS in Q3 and I expect something like $0.09 - $0.10 EPS for the 4th quarter. When that number comes out everybody will make a simple "multiply by 4 quarters" calculus and get to a full year EPS number of $0.4.

That should be enough to propel the stock to something between $8 and $12, depending on the earnings multiple investors decide to attach the company.

Consumers are being attracted by the company's service. It gives them the possibility (not the warranty, but the possibility) of making an e-commerce business with little starting capital. Consumers can subscribe the service just to add a little income and excitement to their boring jobs.

Everybody that I talk to about this investment, doesn't get all that excited about buying shares (because they don't invest in the stock market), but they all get very interested in the company's service's. My wife, her friends, my friends, they all think the idea of www.onlinesupplier.com is so cool.

Of course, if they subscribe they will soon find out that building an e-commerce business isn't all that easy, but in the meantime they already left $50 a month with CPNE.OB, which collects it with a 40% net profit margin. The more people that know the business the more will subscribe, that's why the company is recently experiencing an increase in growth rates.

There will be ups and downs along the way, but fundamentals tell me this stock can be worth between $8-$12 in Q2 2007 and for as long as I believe that, I'll hold !

If I sell I'll lose my position in a great stock that was very hard to find. Then, where would I be? Lost in the market place, doing the wrong thing without any motive besides my own fear. Fear is no motive to sell a stock.

I'll keep on holding CPNE.OB and will update this analysis everyday (as I do with all other holdings of the Main Portfolio).

CPNE trading in a nice tight channel, with the 10ema acting as support on the downside:

Thanks for the chart Tokyopua, yes, the 10 days exponential moving average is providing support to CPNE.OB, which means it is still short term bullish.

Of course, you all know about my long term prospects for this stock already.

Today let's focus our attention not on www.onlinesupplier.com, but on www.investinginsuccess.com, another of the company's websites.



I think it is cool and another subscriber source to the Consumer Loyalty Group.

I see $0.4 EPS in full fiscal 2007 and that probably means a $8 - $12 a share. I'll continue holding CPNE.OB with strong hands.

Institutional Investors Purchase 4.8 Million Shares of Common Stock From a Major Shareholder and Members of Managemen

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070213/latu132.html?.v=42

Hey David,
What do you make of this?  Thanks, Ray

Quote from: dmdray69 on February 13, 2007, 08:13:30 PM
Institutional Investors Purchase 4.8 Million Shares of Common Stock From a Major Shareholder and Members of Managemen

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070213/latu132.html?.v=42

Hey David,
What do you make of this?  Thanks, Ray

I could be wrong about this, but it seems like this is not dillution, just major shareholders and management selling some of their own shares.  If so, its positive for the stock as they mention in the article in that it shows institutional interest in the stock.  And it probably motivates management to work harder so that their next big sale of shares is worth even more