3SOF

And finally here is a simulation that shows what happens if the company announce a drop in gross connections this month to 50.000 instead of the expected 10% growth compared to January gross connections.

(Nice to see that it is not the end of the world - it might be a good buying opportunity if this happens and the share drops )

Michael
Thanks very much for all your efforts. Great Job !

CPNE is bumpin today.

Quote from: das317 on February 20, 2007, 02:06:39 PM
CPNE is bumpin today.

Yes the chart is a beauty. We are once again at all time high but that was expected so let's talk about something else 

Do you know the origin of the word bumpin?

It goes back to an advertising Game Burger King started selling in 2006 (yes there were some rapers that used the word before that but Burger King really made it part of the English Language!).

Now here is the interesting thing. Burger King started selling the game for an additional $3.99 with any value meal. 3.99 is a good (very, very short term) target for CPNE 

You can read more here: http://encyclopedia.thefreedictionary.com/Big+Bumpin'

So what do you prefer a share from CPNE or a value meal from Burger King with a game?

Interesting.  You're making me hungry!

hehe, Michael has the fundamentalist's coolness

He wasn't surprised or excited with CPNE's 18% rise yesterday. As he said:

QuoteWe are once again at all time high but that was expected so let's talk about something else

It was expected!

Actually on my chart the all time high for CPNE.OB is $58 in 2001. But that doesn't mean much for the future ... and of course CPNE.OB is at an all time high in market cap terms.

By the way, the current market cap is 47,313,084*$3.43 = $162,283,878. Given Michael's 2007 net income estimate of $76,342,987, the stock is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 2.13, so, it may very well rise 10 fold from the current closing price of $3.43.

Of course, for that Michael's estimates need to be met. We'll compare estimates with actual results as information becomes available.

Yesterday there was an SEC file out, saying JLF Asset Management, L.L.C. held 3,037,500 shares of the company, or 6.42%, and that puts the current share count at:

3,037,500/0.0642 = 47,313,084 shares outstanding.

Over the Q3 10-Q there were 47,299,323, so practically there wasn't any dilution since then, giving more confidence that the company isn't lying or misleading investors to get their money.

As Tokyopua wrote yesterday:

QuoteMaybe this is part of why the stock is back up today to about the levels it was prior to Valentines day when the supposed "dillution" happened.  All those investors who mistakenly thought it was dillution bailed, but now there is definitive news out showing it wasnt dillution.  This is where it pays to know the rules and hold through the market reactions.  Glad I added to my position during all that noise

Tomorrow we'll hear about Q4, 2006:

«Commerce Planet's presentation at the conference is scheduled for February 22nd at 8:30 am (PST) in the Ritz Ballroom, Salon 5. While attendance at the conference is by invitation only, the entire presentation, including the 2006 Q-4 guidance which will be discussed, will be available via a free public live webcast at http://www.wsw.com/webcast/roth9/cpne.ob/ . Users may access the free webcast by going to the link provided and entering their name, company name and e-mail address at the designated start time, and can access the archived presentation for up to a year thereafter.»

Michael's latest estimate calls for $11,730,047 Q4 revenue. My estimate written on the first page of this thread calls for $11,215,705. Let's see what the actual numbers are.

Nice breakaway gap yesterday, I'll continue holding CPNE.OB with strong hands.

Hello everyone!! I had to work the last couple of days so I was not able to hang out here on the board. I sure was glad to see CPNE.OB having a nice run before their Investor's Conference tomorrow. I wonder if they will leak some news today  to help get this thing above 4.00? I must admit that it is tempting to take some profits here but, I think I will take a long term approach and not sell until I see a good reason to. My near term target price remains 8.30 per share. I agree with David that after the conference tomorrow we will most likely see 5 dollars over the next month. Good luck to all. Tireslinger. 

Does that look like an island reversal on the chart? 

Quote from: realcoolhead on February 21, 2007, 08:27:46 AM
Does that look like an island reversal on the chart? 

No realcoolhead, that technical pattern can only happen after a prolonged descending trend, when the stock gaps down, stays down for a month or two, and then it gaps up, leaving that area "alone" on the chart, making it an island.

CPNE's chart doesn't fit the description

AEY is a good example: (by the way, AEY looks attractive, nice candidate for the Main)

I see, the key word is "prolonged" ... thanks.

Quote from: David Randolph on February 21, 2007, 08:36:58 AM

No realcoolhead, that technical pattern can only happen after a prolonged descending trend, when the stock gaps down, stays down for a month or two, and then it gaps up, leaving that area "alone" on the chart, making it an island.

CPNE's chart doesn't fit the description

AEY is a good example: (by the way, AEY looks attractive, nice candidate for the [ur=http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php]Main[/url])

Commerce Planet, Inc. (CPNE) @ 8:30 AM PST will be speaking at the Roth 2007 OC conference.

Is there a live Webcast or conference call so we can hear the information being presented real time?

Company:                      Commerce Planet, Inc.
Ticker Symbol & Exchange:     CPNE (OTC:BB)
Phone:                        (805) 964-9126 x 3134
Web:                          http://www.commerceplanet.com
Date of Presentation:         February 22, 2007 8:30am Salon 5

Commerce Planet is a publicly traded, internet based media company
(CPNE.OB). The Company offers online media products, lead generation
services and marketing tools to its clients. Commerce Planet offers
an internet turnkey solution through its network of wholly owned
subsidiaries, Consumer Loyalty Group, Legacy Media, OS Imaging and
Interaccurate.

Each subsidiary specializes in a specific niche of the online media
industry. Their combined services are designed to address all the
needs of their partners including: membership loyalty programs;
direct response consumer marketing; affiliate list management; email
deployment, live chat services, phone sales & customer service and
printing & fulfillment services.


This is what I took off of the conferences website so if anyone is in the area, you now know what room the presentation is to be done in. I cannot tell if there is anyway to check it out live though.

Quote from: lancefur on February 21, 2007, 12:52:29 PM
Is there a live Webcast or conference call so we can hear the information being presented real time?

«Commerce Planet's presentation at the conference is scheduled for February 22nd at 8:30 am (PST) in the Ritz Ballroom, Salon 5. While attendance at the conference is by invitation only, the entire presentation, including the 2006 Q-4 guidance which will be discussed, will be available via a free public live webcast at http://www.wsw.com/webcast/roth9/cpne.ob/ . Users may access the free webcast by going to the link provided and entering their name, company name and e-mail address at the designated start time, and can access the archived presentation for up to a year thereafter.»

Some news out, basically further info on the V day shares sales. 

If I read it correctly there is no real change to that transaction or its meaning, though my guess is that worst case the company may need to record a temporary liability on their balance sheet of up to 8% of the transaction price should there be complications in the selling of the shares by the purchasing parties.  (CPNE needs to correctly register the shares, etc. otherwise the purchasing parties wouldnt be able to sell them, etc., its just insuring the buyers that they can sell should they wish to without complications.)  Once those condidtions are met or the shares are sold by the buyers, then that liability would no longer hold.

Pretty much a non-event as far as I am concerned, though at first I was a little concerned to see the headline after hours the day before earnings are to be released 

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/070221/cpne.ob8-k.html