3SOF

OSTE - Osteotech

Osteotech, Inc. develops technologies and products to efficiently and effectively utilize bone and bone connective tissue (allograft bone tissue). Utilizing its expertise in musculoskeletal tissue technology, Osteotech provides services, and develops, markets and sells products to the orthopedic, neurological, oral/maxillofacial and general surgery markets around the world. The Company s primary operation is engaged in the processing of allograft bone tissue used for transplantation. The Company has two primary operating segments: Demineralized Bone Matrix (DBM) and Base Allograft Bone Tissue (Base Tissue). The DBM segment engages in the processing and marketing of Grafton and private label DBMs. The Base Tissue segment primarily engages in the processing of mineralized weight-bearing allograft bone tissue, including the Company s Graftech Bio-Implant allograft bone tissue forms.

NEWS: On Feb. 8, Osteotech, a bone graft products maker, said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved its bone-polymer biocomposite Plexur, which can be used to fill bony voids of the pelvis and extremities.

Stock has been up since then, on strong volumes.

My ratings:
T/A: ++
Analysts: ++
P/E: +
Profitability: --
Risk factors: --

Quote from: zgakira on February 22, 2007, 12:20:11 PM
chcg.ob on fire

Gee, enormous bullish breakout today. No doubt the chart points North in a serious way.

Fundamentally:

• Market cap is $289 M. The Company is now engaged in the business of mobile phone, facsimile machines distribution.
• Balance sheet shows no liquidity problems
• Revenues are growing very strongly, but gross margin is low. Revenues of $42 M in Q3 2006 alone.
• EPS of $0.14 for the past 3 quarters, say $0.20 - $0.25 for the full year?

Trailing earnings multiple is about 25 ... seems like a lot for a Chinese company that began operations just 4 or 5 quarters ago. Also, almost $300 M market cap for an OTCBB traded company with very low gross and net profit margins.

I don't know, chart looks great, but already almost $300 M market cap, I don't trust it.

Good luck

David,

what do you think about ANGN?

Hey Dave. I know you that you don't like to buy more stock when a stock is going down, but I could not resist buying more CPNE.OB at these prices. I don't think the quarter was all that bad but they did miss what wall street was expecting so they must be punished. I think we will get a good bounce towards the close or maybe tomorrow. Good luck with TRMM.

Quote from: tireslinger on February 22, 2007, 03:01:20 PM
Hey David is CPNE making you nervous yet?? What do think it will do over the next few months?

Not nervous, but a bit sad ... it is like seeing that great, great stock, SYX, at one point it was down 6% on the session, when it is obvious to anyone that it will rise a lot higher within some time.

Unfortunately, the fundamental value doesn't matter when people are holding shares with fat profits and just want to take those profits, regardless of everything.

CPNE's numbers were a bit below my estimates, and I had the plan of selling today for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, so I did that right after the open. But I kept the majority of my shares, as you know, since we're holding it on the Main Portfolio.

As I see it, the stock is now trading at $2.83/$0.18 = 15.7 times trailing earnings.

If they make just the same as they did in Q4 2006 for the entire 2007 (and we know there's growth), EPS will be $0.32 and CPNE is trading at 8.8 forward earnings multiple. But I expect a lot more than 8 cents a quarter going forward, so ... well, I believe any dip on this stock is a buying opportunity, there's no debt, no dilution, strong revenue and EPS growth, very fat net profit margin, everything a man wants in a stock to rise 10 or 20 fold.

Hey Dave,

Thoughts on the new out on PMED today and the action we've seen the last week or so. Seems to be holding between .018-.022 pretty steady.  The news was pretty vague other than they say they narrowed losses for Q4 and that they are planning on being much more aggressive now that they have some new products.

Thanks for your thoughts.

Dave, in regards to XIDE, are you thinking about buying it for the main portfolio or the 3stocks on fire fund? 

Quote from: bcsengrng on February 22, 2007, 12:50:17 PM
Hello David,

How can you see "short" volume on a non-optionable stock?

For instance....... if ACY were optionable I could have looked up the amount of PUT volume on it before I bought it (at $20.90 :0( ) and would have seen a large "short" volume on it and waited - is this correct?
If so, then how can you see "short" volume on a non-optionable stock? All the tech., fund. and financial data and news on ACY were/are still good. Granted, it was at a 2-5 yr. high but financial trend is strong. So why is this stock dropping-being overbought and now being oversold?

Everybody can sell a stock short (provided they have a margin account), they don't need to buy puts to take advantage of a fall in a share price.

A stock doesn't need to be shorted to go down ... I covered ACY a couple of days ago, here's what I said back then and the updated chart:

«

Quote from: njshiva on February 20, 2007, 09:55:54 AM
David,  can you look into ACY when you get a chance.

«What an incredible bull run njshiva, I hope you're holding ACY

Fundamentally:

- Market cap is $28.47 M. The Company is engaged in the business of investing in used regional aircraft equipment leased to foreign and domestic regional air carriers
- The share count remained absolutely the same since 1997, needless to say I like that
- Balance sheet looks ok
- Revenue trend is positive. They reported 2006 revenue of $18 M, so the Price to Sales Ratio is 1.55 now.
- They reported $0.62 EPS for the full year 2006, and that puts the trailing earnings multiple at 29.5. But, 4th quarter EPS was $0.35, and if we multiply this by four we get to a full year EPS of $1.4 and that means a forward earnings multiple of 13, which can be considered cheap. The problem is Q4 revenues were lower than Q4 2005.

ACY had the most amazing bull run, from $5.5 to the current $18.5, in just three and a half months. I believe it is fully valued now.

I don't know if this business model has all that much space to grow ... amazing run so far (and today too), congrats njshiva »

This was on Tuesday. In fact, the market cap is so low that tomorrow morning I'll take a deeper look at ACY, might be a nice buying opportunity on this pullback.

Good luck

Quote from: bcsengrng on February 22, 2007, 12:50:17 PM
Hello David,

How can you see "short" volume on a non-optionable stock?

For instance....... if ACY were optionable I could have looked up the amount of PUT volume on it before I bought it (at $20.90 :0( ) and would have seen a large "short" volume on it and waited - is this correct?
If so, then how can you see "short" volume on a non-optionable stock? All the tech., fund. and financial data and news on ACY were/are still good. Granted, it was at a 2-5 yr. high but financial trend is strong. So why is this stock dropping-being overbought and now being oversold?

Let me also give my 2 cents.

With a stock that is heavily shorted options often works in reverse.

If you are short a stock you have an unlimited risk. To limit your risk you can buy call options so you at least know what your maximum exposure is.

So some traders that are bearish on the stock sell the "physical" stock short and buy call options and some don't trade the stock at all and only buy put options. By the end of the day when you look at the balance of put and calls it can be very difficult to draw a conclussion.

As a fundamentalist I would say look at the fundamental values and make you investment decission accordingly. More TA oriented investors would say watch the chart. It is up to you but be carefull read to much into options.

Some questions and comments were left unanswered, it happens everyday, sorry for that.

There's some database connection problem with 3 Stocks and both, the Main Portfolio and the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio are not updated with the closing quotes, I hope Ramsburg is already back from Peru (he was to arrive today), so he can solve this issue ASAP (nice welcoming present )

Anyway, nice closes for ETLT.OB and TRMM.

I'll see you tomorrow

could u do an analysis on MR ?