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BFLY

Started by David Randolph, December 14, 2006, 07:28:41 AM

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David Randolph

Earnings will be out next Wednesday, maybe they will give guidance for Q1 2007, that would be nice. Checking the business: www.bluefly.com. All right.

David Randolph

A small dip on BFLY as the market waits for earnings and conference call next Wednesday. I'll keep holding.

David Randolph

#107
The market was somewhat disappointed when BFLY reported those weak December sales numbers and therefore a just a bit light 4th quarter revenue number. So I guess it can only be positively surprised when the company releases the full earnings report next Wednesday.

You know I'm a long term investor in BFLY, due to its terrific business (www.bluefly.com), and I'll continue holding it the way George Soros does.

chinaguru

I love this company, and if I'm rich I will buy this business and have a Branch set up in China ;D

bought 9000 shares on 2.26, will add more if the story develops :D

AussieTrader

This is an interesting read. Soros fund holding as of Q4 2006 SEC filings (posted here due to the BFLY interest). It shows which holding have increased / decreased and also shows what other funds hold the same stocks. Interesting to see the mix of stocks being held. BFLY is in there, it represents 2.03% of the Soros Holding fund.

http://stockpickr.com/port/George-Soros/

Good Trading
AussieTrader
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David Randolph

Quote from: chinaguru on February 26, 2007, 11:35:41 PM
I love this company, and if I'm rich I will buy this business and have a Branch set up in China ;D

bought 9000 shares on 2.26, will add more if the story develops :D

Hi chinaguru, I hope you didn't have to pay $2.26 for each of your shares ;)

I hope you get rich and buy BFLY from us, but you would need to be very, very wealthy , because we wouldn't sell with anything less than 10 bags of profits :)

Quote from: AussieTrader on February 27, 2007, 01:25:45 AM
This is an interesting read. Soros fund holding as of Q4 2006 SEC filings (posted here due to the BFLY interest). It shows which holding have increased / decreased and also shows what other funds hold the same stocks. Interesting to see the mix of stocks being held. BFLY is in there, it represents 2.03% of the Soros Holding fund.

http://stockpickr.com/port/George-Soros/

Good Trading

Yep, cool link, thanks Aussie :)

This report was out yesterday:

«This is to confirm for you that the Company's Option Exchange Offer expired at 11:59 p.m., Eastern Standard Time, on February 23, 2007. Pursuant to the Offer, the Company accepted for exchange options to purchase an aggregate of 1,562,000 shares of our common stock, representing approximately 95% of the options for 1,652,000 shares that were eligible to be tendered in the Offer as of February 23, 2007. Subject to the terms and conditions of the Offer, the Company will grant a maximum of 472,471 Restricted Stock Awards in exchange for tendered eligible stock options that were vested as of August 31, 2006 and a maximum of 394,405 Deferred Stock Unit Awards in exchange for tendered eligible stock options that were not vested as of August 31, 2006.»

This isn't new, but it is a good thing that they're getting rid of options and other convertible stuff.

Earnings will be out tomorrow after the close, I'll continue holding BFLY.

chinaguru

 :D hahaha

my problem. I meant Feb 26, (yesterday)

I will add another 5000-8000 shares today. Thanks! David

chinaguru

 ::)not very happy yesterday, but did add more :-[

will load up more on dip with strong hands

David Randolph

I love BFLY's business and I wasn't planning to let go of it for long. But I guess a general market downturn will take its revenue multiple down from 2 to 1.

I'll sell BFLY today.

buddjas1

Earnings (or lack thereof) out today

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070228/20070228006053.html?.v=1

David was close with the revenue prediction.  $77.1 mm vs. $75 mm.  Company still not profitable.  Lost 3 cents per share in Q4 on record revenue.

Quote from: David Randolph on December 14, 2006, 07:28:41 AM
Revenues are growing 28% a year, on average, since 2000. I expect revenues of $75 M for the full year 2006. ***

I don't like the fact that the company is still losing money, but, if it were profitable already probably the market cap would be a lot higher. The gross margin is improving rapidly, so perhaps they will turn a profit in 2007, they should:

chinaguru

sold PFSW, but still have this one, the news is OK, I think it will not go up in 1 or 2 weeks

David Randolph

QuoteDavid was close with the revenue prediction.  $77.1 mm vs. $75 mm.  Company still not profitable.  Lost 3 cents per share in Q4 on record revenue.

I was expecting just 1 cent per share loss, not 3 cents. It puzzles me a bit why they keep losing money even though sales are rising steadily. I guess it is because they're spending a lot on advertising looking to add new costumers.

I love the business, and balance sheet is strong after that preferred shares conversion, I'm just not sure about the valuation, it seems just a bit high at 2 times revenues.

I'll look to buy back BFLY, hopefully at lower levels (say $0.70 - $0.80?), but I can be wrong and you holding can be right, good luck :)

David Randolph

QuoteI was expecting just 1 cent per share loss, not 3 cents. It puzzles me a bit why they keep losing money even though sales are rising steadily. I guess it is because they're spending a lot on advertising looking to add new costumers.

I love the business, and balance sheet is strong after that preferred shares conversion, I'm just not sure about the valuation, it seems just a bit high at 2 times revenues.

I'll look to buy back BFLY, hopefully at lower levels (say $0.70 - $0.80?), but I can be wrong and you holding can be right, good luck :)

I used to love this business, www.bluefly.com. My wife and her coworkers still love it (but from a consumer, not an investor perspective. Shouldn't it be the same? Well, not always). Yet I sold the stock at $1.14 and rightly so. I see now that they continued to lose money (they reported a $5 M loss in Q3 2007) and revenue growth slowed.

Of course I'll keep it under the radar, I want to know and follow as many stocks as possible. If not to make money, at least for fun ... (one has to be crazy to study stocks for fun hahaha)

By the way ... George Soros also makes mistakes, he's losing a ton (well, for him it's peanuts) in BFLY.

David Randolph

BFLY made a 1 for 10 reverse stock split and the ticker symbol will be BFLYD for 20 trading days:

Bluefly Completes 1-for-10 Reverse Stock Split
Business Wire (Fri, Apr 4)

Investors have been quite pessimistic about online retailers that make money, let alone losing money propositions like BFLY.

Hmm, BFLY lost $5 M in Q4 07 (the seasonally strongest quarter) and had just $6 M in cash at the end of the quarter. I wonder if the reverse split isn't just to dilute shareholders value all the way down, because they're in desperate need for cash. It looks that way, at first sight.

In a few days I'll have my chart updates, there's no need to change the ticker symbol.