3SOF

I see what you're saying Tokyopua, but do technicals really matter in a long term portfolio such as the Main?  I thought the strategy there was based on fundamentals.  The technical picture is a byproduct, and all of David's prior sentiments put very little emphasis on it.  I just don't feel there are many reasons to argue for a bear market - a one day sell off of 3.X %? 

Historically, Chinese markets have little to no correlation with affecting the US stock market, and yesterdays reaction was an excuse for a selloff - not a change in animals.  The Main was up 17%!  In two months!  That's on pace for 102% for the year.  And I don't think anyone expects that from a portfolio worth $400k...or any value.

I know it was hard to see profits turn to losses in one day - but they are good picks, and until their individual fundamentals change, they should rebound, and continue to show gains.

Time to get out on the long positions for me, it looks like the VIX is following the same pattern... its starting to break above the resistance now. We are going to be red very soon I think.

Quote from: dnickers on February 28, 2007, 01:59:38 PM
I see what you're saying Tokyopua, but do technicals really matter in a long term portfolio such as the Main?  I thought the strategy there was based on fundamentals.  The technical picture is a byproduct, and all of David's prior sentiments put very little emphasis on it.  I just don't feel there are many reasons to argue for a bear market - a one day sell off of 3.X %? 

Historically, Chinese markets have little to no correlation with affecting the US stock market, and yesterdays reaction was an excuse for a selloff - not a change in animals.  The Main was up 17%!  In two months!  That's on pace for 102% for the year.  And I don't think anyone expects that from a portfolio worth $400k...or any value.

I know it was hard to see profits turn to losses in one day - but they are good picks, and until their individual fundamentals change, they should rebound, and continue to show gains.

Dnickers the market is not sound fundamentally... There are so many problems lurking that were brought up and talked about last summer. I believe we will be in a full blown recession by late summer.

Nullzero, while I do not disagree with you, as I am open to all arguments.  However, what are some of those lurking issues?  I apologize I am not very knowledgeable about  that stuff...

It seems to me that yesterday was a great buying opportunity, especially on a great stock like cpne. I wish i had funds available because I would have loaded up yesterday. Today its made a nice turnaround and unless everything david has said about it is dead wrong, it has tons of upside from here. I hope it doesnt move big before my funds are available in a couple of weeks.

Quote from: dnickers on February 28, 2007, 01:32:23 PM
I have to say, I am really shocked at the knee jerk reaction to yesterdays market action by David with the portfolio.  What happened to the trend (our friend)?  One day doesn't break a trend.  I have relatively little experience, but shouldn't we be abiding by that Golden Rule?  Doesn't there need to be some kind of confirmation?  Worldwide economical data doesn't suggest a major reversal.  How can a comment made by a retired guy make such waves around the world?  Seems very unwarranted, at least here in the states.  Like Bourbon (I think) said, and I feel the same, I'm really stunned how David goes from incredibly optimistic to suddenly very pessimistic.  It seems all that awesome, incredible analysis was thrown out the window.  Did the underlying fundamental of these companies change yesterday?  Certainly not - and if the picks are as good as I believe they are/were, it doesn't matter what the stocks held in the Dow or the S&P are doing.  They are their own entities.

As for QID, didn't you (David) say just a couple days ago that that was in your opinion one of the worst picks - given its nature?

Now I hope we all make money and/or learn something from this, but it seems to early to throw in the towel.  To early to sell the towel. 

Derek

I understand your feelings.  Although it was a swift decision, I agree with David on selling everything.  He had a huge gain and it's better to protect the gain.  Like David said, he could be wrong, at least he will still have his money and can buy back later even at a higher price.  Yesterday's volume was a sign, I believe it was the bigger money leaving and they will be sitting on the sidelines for awhile.  Its in David's best interest to maintain his high percentage return so that he can stay in business for himself and of course for us.  Good Luck everybody & be careful!

Quote from: dnickers on February 28, 2007, 01:59:38 PM
I see what you're saying Tokyopua, but do technicals really matter in a long term portfolio such as the Main?  I thought the strategy there was based on fundamentals.  The technical picture is a byproduct, and all of David's prior sentiments put very little emphasis on it.  I just don't feel there are many reasons to argue for a bear market - a one day sell off of 3.X %? 

Historically, Chinese markets have little to no correlation with affecting the US stock market, and yesterdays reaction was an excuse for a selloff - not a change in animals.  The Main was up 17%!  In two months!  That's on pace for 102% for the year.  And I don't think anyone expects that from a portfolio worth $400k...or any value.

I know it was hard to see profits turn to losses in one day - but they are good picks, and until their individual fundamentals change, they should rebound, and continue to show gains.

I see what you are saying, and I was wondering that myself in the "Is the correction about to start?" thread.  

My case there was that if indeed it was possible to time a correction, then why not sell at the top of every correction, assuming you can also time the end of a correction?

You see, every bear market had to start with what some called a correction.  So why take any chances on ANY correction?  My feeling is there is no reason to do that.  People who did take chances on riding out corrections in the tech bubble wish they didnt.  Not to say we are in a bubble, not by far, but why take any chances on losing money when you can save it?  Why not buy back lower when the market tells us to, when it sounds the all clear signal?

I believe that absent global instability and major wars, technology rate of change is increasing all the time which should mean an overall bull market going forward, but at the moment the market is bearish, it makes sense to be a bear while it does.

David, I rarely post but after reading this thread I had to say something...even if half baked.  But before I do that, I just want to say that I have in general enjoyed reading your analysis of the companies you invest in.

These are my opinions:

1.  Why was there no inkling that the situation you described could have happened in any of your previous posts?  One reason I ask this is: you seem very sure that this was brewing for a while.  Yes, history repeats itself and you should trust it, but the time when things happen, hey that is what is important!  For instance, I could say that the stock market will eventually go up or that I am going to croak one day...but when?

2.  Past statistcs on bear and bull markets that you post are descriptive and I don't know what the predictive power are on those stats., because if there was any we could forsee it more clearly....

3.  Next you bring in Buffet, your style is anything but.... 

4.  Are you still going to analyse stocks on a daily basis, for those of us, who might not fully agree with you analysis to be in a cash position.

Lastly, I appreciate the fact that you did what you said you were going to do, i.e., sell the portfolio.  The most important thing, and one of many reason why I am a member, it seems that you are a man of your words....

cctabla

The Chinese are actively trying to cool their markets. We all saw yesterday the results of those actions and there is more from them to come IMO. I think David is right going to cash and being cautious while exploring the short side.

*Real Estate burst and all related economic activity fallout from it... Subprime sickness, Jobs lost (Real Estate related jobs were the number one driver the last 5 years for the California economy.)

I posted this earlier in june timming was off but I believe we are now heading to this stage in the real estate market.

"Rising intrest rates, real estate market tanking will lead to a recession. The economy was lead on by the real estate industry last few years. With construction, mortgage industry, home products, and consumer goods increasing due to people using there homes as an ATM machine. I can only imagine how bad it will get when the people start mass selling there homes and the foreclosures go up significantly. The demand is gone in the real estate market those who bought have already done so and even the ones that shouldnt have bought due to there financial condition, have bought using ARMs and 0 down on a house.

The investors, flippers, speculators, and baby boomers buying second homes are going to rush to sell when there appreciation goes to depreciation. It has been said that there hasnt been this much speculating in the real estate industry ever! What does this mean.... Many of the homes in this market are vacant. Well if the rental income from the home cant cover the mortgage and the home is depreciating then investors and speculators will jump to the door to sell and cash out."

Posted this in july but same reasons still stand

"I think we are in for a recession. Here are some of the following fundamental reasons the market is tanking.

1) World instability ex.(Iraq, Israel conflict, North Korea, Iran nukes, Nigeria, world wide terrorist attacks, etc.)

2) Rising Energy prices (Oil, electricity cost, etc.)

3) Rising Inflation

4) Declining Dollar

5) Cooling real estate market

6) Political polarism and division in this country.

Im sure we can add a couple more lines to this list once we progress down the economic cycle of a recession. Unemployment, business slowdown, foreclosures, etc. Looking at the history books it looks a lot like the 1970s recession. Seems to me the markets will be in limbo for the next 2-5 years. Only way to make money is playing the stocks on a short term basis long or short taking your gains fast!"

Also add global slow down to the list...

Here is a good discussion about the market brought up little over 2 months ago.

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=8026.0

I heard something today that said "futures traders will likely come in after 2 PM and bring the market lower".   Looks like that may be happening, and that the "Bernanke bounce" would have been short lived...

VIX is now trading above the intraday resistance. DOW is now about to break intraday support at 12245.

The short term market is going higher and is VERY oversold.  Will someone please look at the 60 minute charts on page 2 & 3.  I am not great at reading charts and need some help.  I think the first 3 pages of charts will answer our questions about the technicals on the general martket direction...


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936&cmd=show[s81465319]&disp=O

Quote from: brandyjoco on February 28, 2007, 02:39:06 PM
The short term market is going higher and is VERY oversold.  Will someone please look at the 60 minute charts on page 2 & 3.  I am not great at reading charts and need some help.  I think the first 3 pages of charts will answer our questions about the technicals on the general martket direction...


http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID897936&cmd=show[s81465319]&disp=O

The $SOX looks good on their charts, but the rest looks bearish and suggests the correction continues. 

Remember that RSI is just an indicator, and that it can continue very oversold or very overbought for extended periods of time while a market continues to go down or up respectively.  Given that this is the first day of an oversold condition, it would be likely that the oversold condition can continue.

Quote1.  Why was there no inkling that the situation you described could have happened in any of your previous posts?  One reason I ask this is: you seem very sure that this was brewing for a while.  Yes, history repeats itself and you should trust it, but the time when things happen, hey that is what is important!  For instance, I could say that the stock market will eventually go up or that I am going to croak one day...but when?

Yesterday's market events are the catalyst for an economic retrenchment in China and consequently worldwide. The market anticipates the economic cycle.

I always said: "be a bull for as long as it is a bull".

Quote2.  Past statistcs on bear and bull markets that you post are descriptive and I don't know what the predictive power are on those stats., because if there was any we could forsee it more clearly....

Bull and bear markets always existed and will always exist in financial markets. I believe a new bear market is about to start. No big deal in long term historical terms.

Quote3.  Next you bring in Buffet, your style is anything but....

Buffet manages billions of dollars and it has been that way for many, many years. If I held companies like Coca-Cola, Procter and Gamble, Altria and stocks like that I wouldn't consider selling because a bear market is coming. Those companies sell first need goods and will always survive and prosper. Those stocks can go down 20%, no problem for him and his very long term approach. But, if I'm right, small caps will correct by more than 50%. That can be a BIG problem if one is caught holding the bag.

Quote4.  Are you still going to analyse stocks on a daily basis, for those of us, who might not fully agree with you analysis to be in a cash position.

Sure, I will. I need to organize work in a way that I'll do that. Today I'm just too tired because I didn't sleep anything last night.

QuoteLastly, I appreciate the fact that you did what you said you were going to do, i.e., sell the portfolio.  The most important thing, and one of many reason why I am a member, it seems that you are a man of your words....

Always. I make a plan and then follow the plan.