3SOF

hi david,
you are doing a tough job well. nothing wrong with locking in profits and watching , cash is a position.
short frpt at 1630, i am still holding htlt . it is under my buy price by a penny
still holding pmed
max

Wow emotions are really ruling the day here, even watching the intraday VIX.

There are no drastic measures to take IMO. If you haven't taken protective measures already then I strongly suggest you do so. But to short indiscrimately is liable to get you burnt because you may get shook out of your position at the wrong time.

Stop and think. don't you think a correction or even worse was already widely anticipated? I think so, I know I was. The info was staring us in the face. Lots and lots of money already on the sidelines wondering what to do with it.

By the way, I posted a link to a very good article on Tokyopua's market correction thread a while back by Jim Paplova "The Next Rogue Wave". I can't get the link to work now. Does anyone have a copy of it? Very good read IMO. I strongly reccomend reading it, maybe it will make more sense now than it did yesterday or last month.

What happened to the "realcoolheads"?

There are two main problems in my view:

1) The world relies on China for strong economic growth, but China's motor has been running at high speed for too many years. Excesses were committed. And when a very hot economy like that slows, it won't just slow, it will cause a panic. Just look at Malaysia in 1997, Russia in 1998 and more recently Argentina, just to name a few. Why not China now?

2) Consumption in the US didn't fall for two quarters in a row since 1991. I think consumers are so far stretched into debt that a day of reckoning is coming.

Stock market multiples will contract, and growth estimates will be revised lower.

I know it is somewhat boring to be a bear, and that everybody wants to be a bull and stocks to go up. I'm no different.

I also know that most of you don't believe/don't want to believe a bear market is coming.

And maybe you're right.

But I wrote what I think and I'll believe my assessment of reality for as long as the market doesn't prove me wrong. I'll copy paste my article to this message board so others don't feel "this guy is just crazy, changed his opinion without enough thought or analysis".

I'm a strong bull for as long as it is a bull. Now I'm not a bull anymore, but I'm not short stocks in a meaningful way, yet. But I'll be if the market starts proving me right.

Most of all I hope this turns out to be a valid learning experience for everyone, and I hope everybody makes the right decisions and makes money out of them.

I respect everybody else's opinions. I'm just tired and will stop writing for today, will go to the jacuzzi to relax a bit, after making that copy/paste, so you can discuss the arguments if you please.

Good luck

David, you inquired about a Russian ETF for a possble short. My brother mentioned this a while back. I believe he is short on it.  i think it is a closed -end fund though. Templeton Russian and Eastern European  TRF.

Here is another he mentioned, as - Van Eck ETF ? Russia? I have it noted but not sure what is is?

Quote from: BigSully1 on February 28, 2007, 03:04:03 PM
By the way, I posted a link to a very good article on Tokyopua's market correction thread a while back by Jim Paplova "The Next Rogue Wave". I can't get the link to work now. Does anyone have a copy of it? Very good read IMO. I strongly reccomend reading it, maybe it will make more sense now than it did yesterday or last month.

BigSully1, here is your link.

I find it thanks YHOO search engine!


http://financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2006/1209.html#Rogue

Quote from: phabrux on February 28, 2007, 04:12:21 PM

Quote from: BigSully1 on February 28, 2007, 03:04:03 PM
By the way, I posted a link to a very good article on Tokyopua's market correction thread a while back by Jim Paplova "The Next Rogue Wave". I can't get the link to work now. Does anyone have a copy of it? Very good read IMO. I strongly reccomend reading it, maybe it will make more sense now than it did yesterday or last month.

BigSully1, here is your link.

I find it thanks YHOO search engine!


http://financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2006/1209.html#Rogue

Thanks, but I still couldn't get to the original written article. maybe trouble on my end only? Here was the original link;

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2006/1215.html

Quote from: BigSully1 on February 28, 2007, 03:04:03 PM.....By the way, I posted a link to a very good article on Tokyopua's market correction thread a while back by Jim Paplova "The Next Rogue Wave". .......

I agree and listen to Jim Poplava almost every weekend,  I usually just play the MP3 file in media player, rather than read the text.  That way I can be running some scans or something else at the same time.

I find the weekly show very informative and offers a longer term view on whats happening in the world and the markets.   Much different than the talking heads on CNBC and such, who continually try to make up a story of why something happened in the last few hours and then extrapolate it to what will happen in the next year, Ya Right!!

The link works for me here, first part is the audio links and then the text is shown below.

http://financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2006/1209.html#Rogue

Quasi

Quote from: Quasi on February 28, 2007, 04:41:14 PM

Quote from: BigSully1 on February 28, 2007, 03:04:03 PM.....By the way, I posted a link to a very good article on Tokyopua's market correction thread a while back by Jim Paplova "The Next Rogue Wave". .......

I agree and listen to Jim Poplava almost every weekend,  I usually just play the MP3 file in media player, rather than read the text.  That way I can be running some scans or something else at the same time.

I find the weekly show very informative and offers a longer term view on whats happening in the world and the markets.   Much different than the talking heads on CNBC and such, who continually try to make up a story of why something happened in the last few hours and then extrapolate it to what will happen in the next year, Ya Right!!

The link works for me here, first part is the audio links and then the text is shown below.

http://financialsense.com/fsn/BP/2006/1209.html#Rogue

Quasi

Yes Quasi THNX, i got  the interview, what I can no longer get is the article. Really scary stuff, but a very good dose of real world reality.

Well, the market is closed and the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio went down 0.84%, as my intraday timing wasn't the best (but I really don't care about intraday timing).

I'll leave the board open just in case you want to continue the debate and share more information.

Have a good evening, see you tomorrow

Quote from: BigSully1 on February 28, 2007, 04:52:59 PM....
Yes Quasi THNX, i got  the interview, what I can no longer get is the article. Really scary stuff, but a very good dose of real world reality.

Sorry you're right that link just gives you the interview audio and text.  So I just went to the website and tracked down the link to the archives.

Try the one below, I'm reading it now as before I only listened to the interview.

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/oldupdates/2006/1215.html

thanks
Quasi

I have a stock scan for shorts made up now, still tweaking it, but today it gave:

MNC, SGR, BOL, ECLP, GTRC, SHFL

4 have dillution history, all have negative EPS growth rate, all have current ratios less than 2, all should have PEs that are high relative to their industries, and are between 250M and 5B market cap.