3SOF

Quote from: dhiraj19 on March 02, 2007, 11:35:17 AM
Hi David,

As per yesterday's request:

Can you have a look at CGR and also NKTR?

Thanks,
Dhiraj

Ok Dhiraj, let me have a look at CGR. Technically the stock looks like is having a pullback in an overall bullish trend, but I have to tell you, the more charts of below $5 stocks I see, the more I believe they're kind of a one time wonder, you see, they spike up and then go down to previous levels until the next spike up.

Trends usually aren't sustainable, stocks ramp up all at once and then just die.

But let's see the fundamentals, as I know nothing about the stock.

- Market cap is $120 M. The Company is engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of precious metal properties, the acquisition and development of oil and gas properties, the production and marketing of minerals and the production of oil, NGLs and natural gas.
- No dilution
- Balance sheet is weak
- I don't see any revenue growth
- EPS for the previous 4 quarters was 10 cents, so the trailing earnings multiple is 16.

Analysts are expecting just 7 cents EPS for 2007, so the forward multiple is 23.

I don't know what moved the stock up (maybe the recent rise in oil?), if it was that, since I'm a bear in oil, I'm a bear on this stock.

It will be hard to find a stock that I like in the current bear market, it would need to be quite unique, I guess, but I'm sure they're outthere.

Thanks, I hope I'm wrong, good luck

How about SFLY for a short?  Looks like it IPOd recently as there isnt much chart history, and I think it is up because it has seasonally strong Q4 (at least that is what it looks like from this chart on MSN):

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/hilite.asp?Symbol=sfly

Shutterfly, Inc., formerly Shutterfly.com, Inc., is an Internet-based social expression and personal publishing service that enables consumers to share, print and preserve their memories by leveraging its technology-based platform and manufacturing processes. The Company offers a range of products to customers, including prints, photo-based products and merchandise and an assortment of ancillary products, such as frames, photo albums and scrapbooking accessories. In addition, it provides a number of valuable tools and services, such as the ability to upload and edit photos online, share photos with friends and family and permanently store an unlimited number of photos on the Company's system.

Doesnt sound like a great business model to me lol...

47.2 PE vs industry 20.4,... but a decent current ratio of 4.9

Thanks for your thoughts david.  What happens with the "convertible stuff" to affect the diluted weighted shares - is this effectively outstanding warrants/options etc that can be excercised and certain price points over time?  I had seen a relatively stable share count over the last several Q's, at least for the total outstanding.

Or could it be due to this from their last 10Q?

Quote
On November 11, 2005, we entered into a Common Stock Purchase Agreement (the "Stock Purchase Agreement") with Fusion Capital Fund II, LLC ("Fusion Capital"). Under terms of the Stock Purchase Agreement, Fusion Capital has committed to purchase up to $25.0 million of our common stock, at intervals determined by us, at prices determined by a formula set forth in the Stock Purchase Agreement. As of September 30, 2006, no shares have been purchased under this agreement.

Also, the trailing P/E may be a bit misleading, given the have already earned .60 this year, and we could expect them to at meet the last 2 quarters eps.  This would give .85 for 2006 (conservative imo) a P/E of 10.6.  I think the main story for OMNI is the fact that they have been rapidly acquiring new operations on a non-dilutative basis, and that these companies are going to begin to add substantial revenues through 2007.

QuoteOMNI recently announced that its full year pro forma revenues for 2006, including full year revenues for the acquisition of Preheat, Inc., Rig Tools, Inc. and Charles Holston, Inc., would top $140 million

to date they have generated $73M in revenues in 2006, so this suggests that they expect to make something like $67M plus this Quarter, which seems high, but may well be the result of these additional acquisitions.  If they can maintain an operating income margin of around 20% (as they have done in the last few Quarters) that would translate into Q4 EPS of about .50 cents per share, and full year eps of 1.10+.  then we would be looking at a rapidly growing oil services company with a P/E of just 8.2. This is speculative, but is only my analysis coming from their numbers.  

Also, another one to have a look at on the bull side (which you have probably already covered is NM, formerly BULK (they recently moved to the NYSE).  Acting well today (and always nice to see a stock bucking the market trend), and looking to break new highs once again.  It has run a lot this month, but may have more room to go.

Sorry these are both long suggestions, I know you are mostly focused on the short side right now, but whatever makes us money, right?

I've been thinking about the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio and its objectives. It will be hard (I would say impossible) to go from the current $24,000 to $150,000 just shorting stocks, it doesn't matter how hard they fall.

I believe I'll need options, specifically put options, to achieve the objective during this bear market. You know options are a risky game, but one can choose the level of risk he wants to take.

A high reward/high risk proposition is what the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio is all about.

Options will kick in this board in a few minutes!

Quote from: David Randolph on March 02, 2007, 12:31:53 PM
I've been thinking about the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio and its objectives. It will be hard (I would say impossible) to go from the current $24,000 to $150,000 just shorting stocks, it doesn't matter how hard they fall.

I believe I'll need options, specifically put options, to achieve the objective during this bear market. You know options are a risky game, but one can choose the level of risk he wants to take.

A high reward/high risk proposition is what the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio is all about.

Options will kick in this board in a few minutes!

I'll learn about options from you!!!!!!!!!!!!  that sounds wonderful....!!!!  Thanks a lot David     

Ramsburg told me he bought some GOOG put options for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio as I told him to do but after all he couldn't buy because for that strike there wasn't enough liquidity. I just asked him to get some "good" puts, but apparently it's not that easy.

We'll need to study this better before jumping to conclusions, I never traded options before, he used to do that a lot but it was years ago, so ... we need to take our time to accurately choose the puts we want to buy.

David I saw that you bought GOOG Option $520 PUT Jun 07 @ $80 (yahoo ticker: GOPRV.X) but when I go to my broker's site and search for GOOG in options, I only get this, I don't see the $520 ... 

http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/8158/googtj4.png

Quote from: Se7en on March 02, 2007, 01:03:00 PM
David I saw that you bought GOOG Option $520 PUT Jun 07 @ $80 (yahoo ticker: GOPRV.X) but when I go to my broker's site and search for GOOG in options, I only get this, I don't see the $520 ... 

http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/8158/googtj4.png

Yep, I told Ramsburg to make the transaction for me, he told me he bought those puts, but after all he couldn't do it ... we're looking for other more liquid puts.

Hi David,  What do you think about svvs as a short?

Thanks, Dave

David, do you think it is still a good time to buy SIGM?

I just sold my last stock PFSW at 1.07 and I am holding about 5K cash. I invested 3K on Jan to see how the stock is, and luckily I had big profit and thank you for your suggestions which helped me a lot, especially CPNE.

But currently I have a question. For someone like me holding only 5K cash, I assume it is not good to short?? optional sounds good, but to risky. As I just graduate and just started to work, I could only put additional 20K or 30K. SO you think I should just hold the cash and wait?

Also, what do you think of LFL, TBV, UNAM and CALD, you can just pick one or two, or simply tell me if you like them. Thx

David, my brother keeps trying to get me to buy puts on GT. Your opinion? He's already called 3 times today on it.

Hi David,

I opted to buy the GOOG June 2007 $400 strike puts, since they are liquid, as you mentioned. The Ticker is GOPRT. They are a lot more risky, but I anticipate selling them soon after the stock breaks the trend line.

Good Luck!

Bourbon

Hi David,

As far as the GOOG puts go, a couple things - first of all, I know this is your fast portfolio, and as such you will put 1/3 of your money into each trade.  the problem with the $80 GOOG Jun 510 puts is that they cost $8000 per contract!! (i.e. $80*100) for some, certainly for me that is way too much to put into a single highly volatile instrument.  GOOG is fairly unique in that it is such a high priced strock that any options will tend to be expensive, even "at the money" options.  Maybe something a little closer in timeframe, i.e. April puts, and closer in strike, e.g. the April 450 puts are currently $23 per contract.  still expensive, but presumably you only want to hold these for a short period of time, so the time premium will not decay too significantly.

Finally, GOOG is currently struggling with 440, which was right on yesterday's (and the recent move) low.  I also see a potential intraday falling wedge with its base at 440 as well.  I would be concerned about a short term rally here, and would only look to buy those puts on a clear break of 440 (i.e. 1-3 5 min bars).  Just my thoughts....

QuoteDavid, do you think it is still a good time to buy SIGM?

What do you mean? I was short the stock, but bought to cover at $26.63 (as you can see on the Trades thread). I don't think it is the best short outthere. Look for stocks with bearish trends, those will go down the most and more easily.

How about AMD?  I know not small cap, but it just broke below recent lows and is in a clear downtrend.  It rallied at the beginning of the week, but has been tanking since