3SOF

So, not to sound like an idiot, I assume that if you haven't already bought.  FRPT is still a good short play, David?

David, can you please look into gra and hmin for shorting?

Dave I know you like to keep adding to a position as it goes up to hit your target but would you do the same thing on shorting. For example your target on FRPT is the 200 day moving average so would you keep adding to your short position as it goes down?

How is it possible that NAS and Dow are up  0,5% while almost all or a big big majority of stocks are in the red?!

Quote from: johnr733 on March 05, 2007, 11:08:03 AM
So, not to sound like an idiot, I assume that if you haven't already bought.  FRPT is still a good short play, David?

Yes, I believe it is johnr733. I'm short at $15.95, so around the current price.

FRPT is a $1.1 B market cap company with a forward earnings multiple of 27. The problem is I don't think the company will meet analysts EPS expectations for 2007, not because it will sell less or the US will retreat from Irak (even though I believe an economic slowdown in the US will increase pressure for that outcome), but because it keeps diluting shareholder's value, as you can see on this 10 year summary and quarterly balance sheet data, under the line "Total Common Shares Outstanding".

APAC...trying to figure why this one is going strong during this downturn.  they are in customer service.  Maybe with all the bad debt out there.  Credit card companies are hiring their services with billing issues???

Is anyone else having problems short FRPT? I got a message from two different brokerage saying they can't procees the order because they are unable to borrow shares.

David,

Do you have and alternative pick, like one from the main prtofolio to substitute for FRPT?

Thanks

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 05, 2007, 11:21:16 AM
Dave I know you like to keep adding to a position as it goes up to hit your target but would you do the same thing on shorting. For example your target on FRPT is the 200 day moving average so would you keep adding to your short position as it goes down?

You still don't know my strategy very well prodigykid6, as you haven't been around the block long enough

I never average up or down, due to money management risk control rules. I never add to a position once I opened it. Of course, I may entry a position with two or three orders (but I still don't need that, the Main's size still isn't big enough to justify that).

If the position goes against me, I start thinking that I might be wrong, I don't get more confident as I'm losing, but less confident. If I'm winning, that's good, but I don't pyramid the position by adding more, that would increase risk by a lot.

I usually invest a fixed portion of capital in each position as I open it (6.66% of capital for the Main, 33.33% of capital for the Fire - unless I'm buying options, in that case I reduce the size to about 10% of the Fire's capital). If the position size rises due to its own merit, I won't cut it off either. That's my way of increasing exposure to a winning trade. But to add more to a winning position ... no, I don't do that, that's too risky, as it violates diversification and money management rules.

Thanks, I love strategic questions

Quote from: Se7en on March 05, 2007, 11:26:55 AM
How is it possible that NAS and Dow are up  0,5% while almost all or a big big majority of stocks are in the red?!

look at CSCO it's green  

Quote from: David Randolph on March 05, 2007, 10:54:06 AM
If $oil goes down as I think it will (due to a worldwide, but especially Chinese economic recession in late 2007, early 2008), alternative energy will go down even more than oil related companies, because these trade at cheap valuations, where as alternative energy companies are trading at lofty multiples, unfortunately.

I say unfortunately because we all want the World to be more environmentally friendly, but the free market economy doesn't solve all problems of the World.

Dave would shorting Chinese solar companies be good such as HOKU and FSLR?

Quote from: eggman11 on March 05, 2007, 11:39:20 AM
Is anyone else having problems short FRPT? I got a message from two different brokerage saying they can't procees the order because they are unable to borrow shares.

David,

Do you have and alternative pick, like one from the main prtofolio to substitute for FRPT?

Thanks

I really enjoy FMCN on the short side. If you're not short already I would certainly sell it short now, as the stock is clawing back up to make a thrusting candlestick pattern, which is a bearish continuation pattern.

I've experienced several economic slowdowns and recessions on my skin. I know how companies that sell advertising space suffer the most and the earliest. Selling advertising space is that sector that has fat margins and gives a lot of money to earn when the economy is hot, but when it cools down, it is a money drain.

Unless I'm wrong on an economic slowdown in China (I don't think I am, especially on the investment side of the economy), FMCN trading at 46 times earnings will surely tank.

Good luck

Quote from: Se7en on March 05, 2007, 11:26:55 AM
How is it possible that NAS and Dow are up  0,5% while almost all or a big big majority of stocks are in the red?!

My take is mega caps are pushed up to sell futures and buy puts on the general market. You need to get used to a lot of rallies, especially over the intraday. It will seem as the market is always moving up

The market will be "moving up now", "turning the corner to the green", "the bottom is in", "time for a rebound" all the way down!

At least, over the previous two bear markets that I've traded through, that was what happened. People only realized the market was really free falling after a 15 to 20% move down. Then they thought "now it is too late to sell, I'll hold for the long term" ... but the market kept going down until they couldn't take it anymore and sold at whatever price they could, they just wanted to get out and stop the pain. That is called the capitulation process. The quicker the market goes down that path, the sooner it will be bullish again. 

Hey Dave, lots of questions and emerging opportunities to make money on the short side.   How about EWM?

Quote from: Garoh on March 05, 2007, 11:41:29 AM

Quote from: Se7en on March 05, 2007, 11:26:55 AM
How is it possible that NAS and Dow are up  0,5% while almost all or a big big majority of stocks are in the red?!

look at CSCO it's green 

ACY and KRSL in green too ;-)

David,
Any thoughts on shorting Goldman? (GS)

Risk appetitie (& revenues) will go down, and thats how they differentiate to other brokerage houses..

Appreciate your feedback.
Nick