3SOF

nice chart...but low volume so far...

QuoteDavid, how would you define recession for China?  If they were growing at 10% till recently, what percentage growth would qualify as recession for them?  I also think I heard on Bloomberg that India had been growing at something crazy like 35% recently.  If it goes into recession, does that mean they are still growing at 10% for example?

The definition of an economic recession is two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP change.

For example, China's GDP is estimated at $10 T in 2006 (Jesus, I'm amazed to see it is almost surpassing the US), so about $2.5 T a quarter. If for example Q3 2007 GDP is $2.45 T and Q4 2007 GDP is $2.3 T, you have a full blown economic recession.

Usually the statistical data showing there was a recession is only known after the recession has come and gone.

GDP = Consumption + Investment + Exports - Imports

China is in a very bad position right now. They did it upon themselves though, the Communist government in China loves to manipulate their markets and currency a lot more then the U.S. and the rest of the world. Because of the artificially low currency to spur more exports to the U.S. they essentially have taken the path of no return. If indeed the U.S. heads into recession China is going to have some huge problems for their economy (since a huge majority of all exports goto the U.S.) The problem with China is they are not self substainable on the the consumption side on the amount of production they are doing. The Chinese are not good consumers they save an incredibly high amount of money. I forsee a major economic crsis in China caused by drastically lowered demand in the U.S., and the rest of the world.

Quote from: bourbonstreet_crawdaddy on March 05, 2007, 02:20:47 PM
Hi David,

I hope that your walk left you refreshed and rejuvenated. What are your thoughts on the GOOG short? Do you still think that GOOG is one of our best options as far as shorting goes - especially in light of the fact that the stock is getting support at the 200 DMA, and because the earnings have come in above analysts expectations for the past 4 quarters, and estimates for 2007 seem reasonable.....

Just wondering if there isn't some better stocks to try and short..... or if we should just sit tight, and you are still confident that GOOG will break its long term trendline.

Thank You for all of your good advice David - and get some rest!!

Bourbon 

Well, I believe I know GOOG quite well and have some "inside information" on how it is doing (as you've read on the Premium area). I believe the company will disappoint investors in 2007, as the economic slowdown will make its revenues if not shrink, at least not grow by much.

Now, as for today, I was expecting it to be weaker. I have some worries that despite being right on holding GOOG shares short on the Main, I may lose on the Fire due to options being a very short term game.

I worry a bit, but that's not my expectation. GOOG closed below its long term ascending trendline, and today just seems to be a throwback to that broken support (now resistance), which in fact reinforces the bearish technical analysis.

Let's see how it plays out during the rest of the week ... I still expect it to tank $50 over the next couple of weeks

Do you see FMCN going down to its 200 day.  I see a gap at 59  from November that i feel it may reach if the downward pressure continues.  Whats your opinion?

hey dave silver has been getting spanked the past couple of weeks down about 20%. i know the demand is greater than the supply so is there anyway we can play this soon if the market turns around?

Quote from: mbaugh on March 05, 2007, 02:54:40 PM
Do you see FMCN going down to its 200 day.  I see a gap at 59  from November that i feel it may reach if the downward pressure continues.  Whats your opinion?

I think it will go a lot lower than that, but I would also like to see it fall to close that gap over the next couple of weeks, at $62.39.

I dislike thinking too much about the short term, and next time I'll buy options with a longer term to maturity. Anyway, even on a short term technical/candlestick analysis, the stock looks due to continue the short term bearish trend.

$VIX is showing some strength again on the intraday. Maybe another bear raid on the market is in the works the last hour of trading.

Just broke some intraday support on the DOW. Now looking good going into close  . $Vix is shooting up some more last 30 mins of today should be pretty interesting.

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 05, 2007, 03:02:21 PM
hey dave silver has been getting spanked the past couple of weeks down about 20%. i know the demand is greater than the supply so is there anyway we can play this soon if the market turns around?

How do you know that?

I think you're somewhat confused prodigykid6, don't tell me you've been smoking again? You know you're not old enough

No kidding now, you can play Silver as you wish, but I won't touch it for as long as traders keep focused on the economic utility of silver instead of its financial role. $silver has been going down because traders perceive a slowing economy going forward. Since I agree with them on their economic forecast, why should I buy silver now?

I bought it a few days ago, but fortunately quickly saw it was a mistake and sold it.

Anyway, maybe it's time for a bounce, good luck man

Thanks for your thoughts on GOOG David.

Do you have any thoughts on a possible short of INTC, or has the stock tanked as low as it may go?

INTC fell through it's 200 DMA a couple days ago, and looks like it might free fall.

Thanks Again David

You're the Man!

Bourbon   

David, I would suggest that 3SoF should not include options on this portfolio. There are completely different ball game and in no way its going to help small traders/investers like me.

Quote from: stocky on March 05, 2007, 03:16:43 PM
David, I would suggest that 3SoF should not include options on this portfolio. There are completely different ball game and in no way its going to help small traders/investers like me.

If one is fairly confident with a decline in PPS I dont see a problem with options (as long as the person knows the risks and what they are doing with options and has read a good deal of information on them.)

Quote from: David Randolph on March 05, 2007, 03:11:46 PM

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 05, 2007, 03:02:21 PM
hey dave silver has been getting spanked the past couple of weeks down about 20%. i know the demand is greater than the supply so is there anyway we can play this soon if the market turns around?

How do you know that?

I think you're somewhat confused prodigykid6, don't tell me you've been smoking again? You know you're not old enough

No kidding now, you can play Silver as you wish, but I won't touch it for as long as traders keep focused on the economic utility of silver instead of its financial role. $silver has been going down because traders perceive a slowing economy going forward. Since I agree with them on their economic forecast, why should I buy silver now?

I bought it a few days ago, but fortunately quickly saw it was a mistake and sold it.

Anyway, maybe it's time for a bounce, good luck man

I wasn't suggesting buying now but perhaps when it touches that 120 trend line you pointed out

Quote from: bourbonstreet_crawdaddy on March 05, 2007, 03:13:13 PM
Thanks for your thoughts on GOOG David.

Do you have any thoughts on a possible short of INTC, or has the stock tanked as low as it may go?

INTC fell through it's 200 DMA a couple days ago, and looks like it might free fall.

Thanks Again David

You're the Man!

Bourbon   

No, you're the man !

INTC, yes, nice short, chart says it is bearish, should go down on a global economic slowdown.