3SOF

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 08, 2007, 01:20:15 PM

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 01:15:39 PM
Good idea! But before we do this we would have to brainstorm a list of what sectors and industries are hot and what ones are not. For instance we dont want to be in mortgage lending industry its a waste of time. So is the homebuilding industry.

I agree.  I guess we would need a headcount of who is willing to participate and reach a consensus as to the most immediately relevant industries. 

Naturally, I am in.  Anyone else?

Sure, I'm in.

I guess we need a few days of thinking and brainstorming as you say to find the perfect industries/characteristics of winning stocks.

Quote from: Quasi on March 08, 2007, 12:39:14 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on March 08, 2007, 12:12:09 PM.....
BTW, free applaud to anyone who can give me that online realtime volume source for $spx, $dji, $ndx etc.  Even Yahoo didnt have it. 

Every thing is OK now, gotta like those pump and dumpers over at CNBC.

As for real time volume on index's, would be nice to have, I've also looked for it without any luck.  Also I don't really believe the numbers on Stockcharts even though the index price is real time I think the volume quoted is much further behind. 

The data feeders can track and calculate the price rather quickly but I don't think they are doing it accurately on the volume side, just too many underlying stocks in the index to keep track of, trading on so many different exchanges.

But if you find one be sure to inbox me with the details.

thanks
Quasi

Didnt find one but here is my current strategy to get the info.  I am just googling Google News for the name of the exchange and the word "volume".  Then I do a text search in the articles that come up for "volume".  

Doesnt always get me the exact exchange I was looking for, but I usually find a few volume numbers and at least then have a time stamp.  For NYSE looks like Stockcharts wasnt that far behind, so maybe that is useable after all.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 08, 2007, 11:32:06 AM
Anyone here ever bought a 10 bagger? (a stock that rose 900% from your entry point)

I only bought 1, but it shouldn't count, since it was such a penny stock. Where are those 10 baggers? How to find them before they rise?

Hi David

OK I'll bite, what's the time frame for this 10 Bagger definition.  If its fairly short it going to be pretty hard in the Mid caps. pennies yes but risky and volatile and would probably get tripped out before the full 10 anyway.

Have I had any, yes a couple, mostly in the Junior O&G area in Canada on the TSE big board.  Not the ventures exchange as I would call that more like pennies or at least similar to OTC type stocks.

I'm currently looking alot in the uranium area.  Now there are tons of new upstart pennies out there who are in the exploration business, not for me.  But I'm looking at companies who own actual mines and properties around them which were shut down 20-30 years ago when uranium was in the $10 range.  They just weren't profitable any more.  They have proven reserves and lots of geological data already done and these were previously working mines which are more easily permitted to reopen, if they are not already still in operation.

Also now with urainium at $85++ and the shortages and Cameco mine flooded in Saskatchewan, and ERA in Australia yesterday declared force majeure on its uranium oxide sales contracts after heavy rainfall affected production at its Ranger mine, the pressure is on.

Just a sector suggestion for the board.

Now for my ultimate 10 bagger ++++, which I actually owned, but no don't get exited I only took out a 1.5 Bagger, got tripped out.  Basically I was too early and was in and out of the red for a few months, then just wanted to look at other things.  Chart below, but ignore the annotations its an older chart I used in a post somewhere to explain log vs linear scaling on longer term charts.

I won't tell you how many bags this one was, makes me sick, but there were a few pull backs where I would have been tripped out anyway.  I was in at 45 cents.

Quasi

QuoteDidnt find one but here is my current strategy to get the info.  I am just googling Google News for the name of the exchange and the word "volume".  Then I do a text search in the articles that come up for "volume". 

Doesnt always get me the exact exchange I was looking for, but I usually find a few volume numbers and at least then have a time stamp.  For NYSE looks like Stockcharts wasnt that far behind, so maybe that is useable after all.

Why don't you use the ETF's volume tokyopua? For example, the SPY volume for the general market volume analysis? The volume changes are pretty similar.

For Tokyo's volume you can also use the Japanese stock's ETF, now I can't quite remember its symbol ...

This stock just popped up on my fundamental filter.

USU

"USEC, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies low enriched uranium (LEU) for commercial nuclear power plants worldwide. It sells separative work units (SWU) component of LEU, the SWU and uranium components of LEU, and uranium. SWU is a standard unit of measurement that represents the effort required to transform a given amount of natural uranium into two streams: enriched uranium having a higher percentage of U235 and depleted uranium having a lower percentage of U235. The company also performs contract work for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and DOE contractors at the Paducah and Portsmouth plants, which includes the maintenance of the Portsmouth gaseous diffusion plant in a state of readiness or cold standby, processing out-of-specification uranium, and provision of infrastructure support services. In addition, USEC provides nuclear energy solutions and services, including design, fabrication, and implementation of spent nuclear fuel technologies; nuclear materials transportation; and nuclear fuel cycle consulting services. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland."

Market Cap (intraday): 1.30B
Enterprise Value (8-Mar-07)3: 1.23B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 12.15
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-08) 1: 30.98
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): N/A
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.68
Price/Book (mrq): 1.27

Chart looks extremely bullish. Industry is very bullish, business looks solid. Fundamentals show its very cheap.

Quote
I'm not entering the JADE's case at this point (I'll do it later). I agree that the share count evolution shows the willingness or not of management to issue more shares, thus diluting shareholder's value.

My question is if that is such a big matter in the grand scale of things. Did MSFT dilute shareholder's value in the late 1980's? Did Cisco dilute shareholder's value in  1990?

I would like to know that, since MSFT is up 284 fold since its IPO in 1986 and CSCO is up 334 fold since its IPO in 1990.

In the case of a rapidly growing company, isn't it possible that the company could make a strategic decision to fund all or part of their growth through dilution? If they chose to do it that way,  conceivably it could result in less risk to investors, rather than more. The expansion has to be funded somehow, and by using dilution rather than borrowing, they avoid the problems of debt service and fluctuating interest rates. It would be different if the company is just funding operations with dilution.

David, Sorry to jump all over this, but while I don't think OMNI will be a 10-bagger from here, it could easily be a double.  From this PR just released:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070308/dath027.html?.v=90

They are estimating earnings in excess of $40M from over $175M in revenue for 2007.

Their current OS shares are 17.5M plus 2.9M convertible:

QuoteOMNI currently has outstanding approximately 17,500,000 shares of common stock, with approximately an additional 2,950,000 to be issued upon conversion of OMNI's 9% Series C Convertible Preferred Stock.

Which means they have a forward P/E of 5!!!  I would find it very hard to believe that this stoock will not be trading above $15 in 6 months time.  Please have a look, I think this company represents some serious value.

wow,CHCG on fire again.

nullzero,
USU looks very interesting.

Any idea though why forward P/E is > training P/E?
Thanks,
Nick

QuoteBut I'm looking at companies who own actual mines and properties around them which were shut down 20-30 years ago when uranium was in the $10 range.  They just weren't profitable any more.  They have proven reserves and lots of geological data already done and these were previously working mines which are more easily permitted to reopen, if they are not already still in operation.

Also now with urainium at $85++ and the shortages and Cameco mine flooded in Saskatchewan, and ERA in Australia yesterday declared force majeure on its uranium oxide sales contracts after heavy rainfall affected production at its Ranger mine, the pressure is on.

Just a sector suggestion for the board.

That uranium theme seems like a nice speculation theme, Hugh Hendry also brought it up today on CNBC. My question is, are there any stocks in this industry traded on the US exchanges, and I wonder if their valuation reflects or not the spectacular rise in uranium prices?

I guess I should subscribe to technical and fundamental data for Canadian stocks too, a lot of opportunities in your country

QuoteNow for my ultimate 10 bagger ++++, which I actually owned, but no don't get exited I only took out a 1.5 Bagger, got tripped out.  Basically I was too early and was in and out of the red for a few months, then just wanted to look at other things.  Chart below, but ignore the annotations its an older chart I used in a post somewhere to explain log vs linear scaling on longer term charts.

I won't tell you how many bags this one was, makes me sick, but there were a few pull backs where I would have been tripped out anyway.  I was in at 45 cents.

That's my point. "I would have been tripped out anyway". I guess one should have a strategy that keeps him on board of such a great stock like that through the ups and downs. I believe the only way to achieve that is to invest from a business perspective. Not invest in the stock, but in the business, in a way the stock price doesn't matter all that much, because, over the long term, the share price will always reflect the fundamentals of the business (unless there's a ton of dilution).

I'm also considering realcoolhead's words about quality of life. I would like to own shares because of the deep research I made, keep track of my investment and incoming information, but not to care too much about short term price swings, because they make me nervous and I suspect won't bring me as much success as I want to have in the 35 years of investments I hopefully have ahead of myself.

Quote from: nicknite20 on March 08, 2007, 01:53:50 PM
nullzero,
USU looks very interesting.

Any idea though why forward P/E is > training P/E?
Thanks,
Nick

"USEC forecast a 2007 loss of $10 million to $20 million on revenue of $1.86 billion."

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b41A3BF22-A3CD-47B8-B88A-A17C47B65D17%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

They are forcasting a loss but that doesnt mean events can change in 2007 and they can have a earning suprise to the upside.

Quote from: nullzero on March 08, 2007, 01:42:21 PM
This stock just popped up on my fundamental filter.
USU

Yes USU has been on my uranium watch list for some time and the chart is interesting, been waiting for the right entry.  But mostly just sitting on my hands in the current market conditions.   However starting to think in this sector the general market has no bearing.

As for USU I think they are the only enrichment operation in the USA.  Now there are others in Europe and we know Iran is heading in that direction also.

Quasi

anyone still interested in ACY? if you look at 30 minutes chart, it is bouncing from a support. This stock doesn't trade with market, a good one to play. I have just reentered the trade. It has a possibility to run back to $24.

Quote from: ScottishTrader on March 08, 2007, 01:47:34 PM
David, Sorry to jump all over this, but while I don't think OMNI will be a 10-bagger from here, it could easily be a double.  From this PR just released:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070308/dath027.html?.v=90

They are estimating earnings in excess of $40M from over $175M in revenue for 2007.

Their current OS shares are 17.5M plus 2.9M convertible:

QuoteOMNI currently has outstanding approximately 17,500,000 shares of common stock, with approximately an additional 2,950,000 to be issued upon conversion of OMNI's 9% Series C Convertible Preferred Stock.

Which means they have a forward P/E of 5!!!  I would find it very hard to believe that this stoock will not be trading above $15 in 6 months time.  Please have a look, I think this company represents some serious value.

Hi Scotsman

I had a look and I like what i see 

Does anybody else think GOOG is looking a little toppy here? I still think it can pull back to the 450 area, or hopefully at least to the 453 area its 10-day moving average.

David,

With your new strategy, I hope you consider the including some options in the mix.
Also, you should probably stay away from canadian stocks, the canadian market is notorious for their lax standards and fraud in their market. Do some research on it.

P.S. Someone else asked this, but I did not see a response. Are you reseraching SILC as a potential 10-bagger and considering it for the 3 stocks on fire portfolio?

Thanks