3SOF

Quote from: tokyopua on March 09, 2007, 10:38:23 AM

Quote from: BigSully1 on March 09, 2007, 10:29:26 AM
Hi Tokyopua,

I think it's just too early too decide the bullish vs bearish case. I still think it's wise to take a "market neutral" approach for now, and continue looking for both good long and short prospects, and be ready for a more decisive move.
Like you, I think we are still in a corrective mode for now until proven otherwise and I don't think the big guys are buying.

I am really hoping that there is much more correction in store, it would be much more healthy  than the measly 4% to 5% we've had thus far.

I am not hardcore bearish to the extent that I think the longer term bull market is necessarily done, but while we are in a confirmed correction, I am a bear for that time period.  Per Investors Business Daily correction theory, we are in a confirmed correction with a rally attempt.  Today is the 4th day of the rally attempt, and as such is the first day that the correction can be turned into a confirmed rally.  IMO today was the big hope for that, but you need to see the indices up about 1.5% on higher volume than yesterday and that seems unlikely from where I am sitting.

However, going forward all we need is the major indices to show .2% or greater loss in stronger volume than the day before and the rally count goes back to zero.

As for getting long picks, I dont doubt there might be some out there, and I will buy those if they seem really compelling!  But I have stopped scanning for those personally till we are out of the correction officially.

Fair enough Tokyopua. By the way, I'm also a follower of IBD and recently renewed my subscription. 80 weeks (daily) $352. It's a great deal, less than 90c/copy. Best financial paper out there, IMO.

Anyone here good at interpreting the jobs numbers this morning?  It seems to me not so positive that Construction and Mfg jobs were down while the major up numbers were Service related?

Also, isnt it the case that unemployment fell in part because the labor force itself dropped by 190,000 as they reported on CNBC just now?

I spent some time searching for potential 10-baggers yesterday.

I started w/ the agricultural chemical's instrustry (alphabetically, the first industry).  

http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/112_cl_pub.html

Nothing "wow"ed me.  

A company called Itronics looks interesting, but has way too many outstanding shares (like 350million) and just as many warrants.  Itronics converts photoprocessing waste into fertilizer and pure silver bars.  Itronics is growing pretty rapidly, but does not appear to be approaching profitability any time soon.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ITRO.OB

Bodisen Biotech also looked interesting at first glance.  There are too many lawsuits (management fraud) looming, however, to make it a buy.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BBC

I then looked at the Aluminum industry (second alphabetically).  The only stock that may deserve a second look is ACH, the Aluminum Corp. of China.  Trades at a PE of about 2, while Alcoa trade as a PE of 12.  A possible 6-bagger.  I need to look into ACH a little better tonight.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ACH

Quote from: eggman11 on March 09, 2007, 09:54:00 AM
David,

Yesterday you mentioning researching SILC a little more (potentially viewing it as a 10-bagger) and maybe possibly adding it to the 3 stocks on fire portfolio and posting your findings (will that psoted later today?).  (If a stock has potential for a 10 bagger - I see it as no brainer to include in the prtfolio.). Please consider the use of options in  the future for the portfolio. The recent puts turned out to be a big mistake, but you shouldn't rule out the use of options, because of one mistake. As I mentioned in an earlier post, we just need to set up some option trading rules in advance.

Thanks

your a premium member check daves post on SILC in the main. the industry is supposed to grow 10 fold in 2 years. if you ask me SILC is a 10 bagger in 3 years minimum.

Quote from: BigSully1 on March 09, 2007, 10:54:11 AM

Quote from: tokyopua on March 09, 2007, 10:38:23 AM

Quote from: BigSully1 on March 09, 2007, 10:29:26 AM
Hi Tokyopua,

I think it's just too early too decide the bullish vs bearish case. I still think it's wise to take a "market neutral" approach for now, and continue looking for both good long and short prospects, and be ready for a more decisive move.
Like you, I think we are still in a corrective mode for now until proven otherwise and I don't think the big guys are buying.

I am really hoping that there is much more correction in store, it would be much more healthy  than the measly 4% to 5% we've had thus far.

I am not hardcore bearish to the extent that I think the longer term bull market is necessarily done, but while we are in a confirmed correction, I am a bear for that time period.  Per Investors Business Daily correction theory, we are in a confirmed correction with a rally attempt.  Today is the 4th day of the rally attempt, and as such is the first day that the correction can be turned into a confirmed rally.  IMO today was the big hope for that, but you need to see the indices up about 1.5% on higher volume than yesterday and that seems unlikely from where I am sitting.

However, going forward all we need is the major indices to show .2% or greater loss in stronger volume than the day before and the rally count goes back to zero.

As for getting long picks, I dont doubt there might be some out there, and I will buy those if they seem really compelling!  But I have stopped scanning for those personally till we are out of the correction officially.

Fair enough Tokyopua. By the way, I'm also a follower of IBD and recently renewed my subscription. 80 weeks (daily) $352. It's a great deal, less than 90c/copy. Best financial paper out there, IMO.

I havent heard many people here say much about IBD, glad to see someone else who has it.  I mainly chose my subscription to them based on their online "Big Picture" columns, do you have access to those or follow them?  I got a cheaper version where I only get the paper once a week, but that online Big Picture column alone was worth my subscription price I believe for their following of correction likelihood, rally likelihood, etc.

Do you follow their correction theory, distribution day counting, etc.?

GM   David and ALL

David glad to see you are stepping back a little and refocusing on the big picture.  We have all been suffering from watching the ticker a little closely and extrapolating into much longer time frames.  Some times you can't see the forest because there are just too many dam trees in the way.

Nice gap up this morning on this so called great jobs news, but then looked like the Big boys were stumbling over themselves to feed more shares to the bottom fishing retail guys.  For me not a lot has changed, I'm still in the correction mode and leaning towards Bear, but we'll see.  Many on this board are sharing the same opinion, others are not, thus we are in no mans land without a real short term trend.

Personally this sloppy action, means I'm mostly trying to sit on my hands and just watch.  Got tripped out of my QID's a few minutes after the open, almost pulled the order but felt money management rules needed to be observed, so ended up with a little smaller profit.  I don't think we are going to take out the recent low right now as we'll bounce again on the bottom fishers, we need a several day rally back into the lower red candle of last week on medium volume, then I think we can have a good washout to below the lows.  At that point we can rebuild a base and start another assault, but it will be many months before we take out the highs on the index's again.

The house of cards was showing some strain last fall and the coiled spring was very tight, last Tuesday released some of the pressure, but there's still a lot there.  I feel any rally back to the highs, from this point, without having a lower washout is just going to wind that coiled spring very much tighter.  Some pressure needs to be release here and that's a good thing in the long run for any Bull market to continue.

I don't expect the index's to close above the highs today, probably closer to yesterdays close.

JMHO

Quasi

I also have a subscription to Ibd, but haven't used it very much.  What are the few ways that anyone recommends using the various sections?

Quote from: tokyopua on March 09, 2007, 10:59:09 AM

Quote from: BigSully1 on March 09, 2007, 10:54:11 AM

Quote from: tokyopua on March 09, 2007, 10:38:23 AM

Quote from: BigSully1 on March 09, 2007, 10:29:26 AM
Hi Tokyopua,

I think it's just too early too decide the bullish vs bearish case. I still think it's wise to take a "market neutral" approach for now, and continue looking for both good long and short prospects, and be ready for a more decisive move.
Like you, I think we are still in a corrective mode for now until proven otherwise and I don't think the big guys are buying.

I am really hoping that there is much more correction in store, it would be much more healthy  than the measly 4% to 5% we've had thus far.

I am not hardcore bearish to the extent that I think the longer term bull market is necessarily done, but while we are in a confirmed correction, I am a bear for that time period.  Per Investors Business Daily correction theory, we are in a confirmed correction with a rally attempt.  Today is the 4th day of the rally attempt, and as such is the first day that the correction can be turned into a confirmed rally.  IMO today was the big hope for that, but you need to see the indices up about 1.5% on higher volume than yesterday and that seems unlikely from where I am sitting.

However, going forward all we need is the major indices to show .2% or greater loss in stronger volume than the day before and the rally count goes back to zero.

As for getting long picks, I dont doubt there might be some out there, and I will buy those if they seem really compelling!  But I have stopped scanning for those personally till we are out of the correction officially.

Fair enough Tokyopua. By the way, I'm also a follower of IBD and recently renewed my subscription. 80 weeks (daily) $352. It's a great deal, less than 90c/copy. Best financial paper out there, IMO.

I havent heard many people here say much about IBD, glad to see someone else who has it.  I mainly chose my subscription to them based on their online "Big Picture" columns, do you have access to those or follow them?  I got a cheaper version where I only get the paper once a week, but that online Big Picture column alone was worth my subscription price I believe for their following of correction likelihood, rally likelihood, etc.

Do you follow their correction theory, distribution day counting, etc.?

Sure, I have access to all the online features, but I really like the hard copy and your right, "The Big picture" on the front page is the very first thing I read, and it's just  one of many regular columns like IBD's Top Ten News items (front page) and "The New America" column.

I don't follow their theorys to a "T", but yes I definitely believe in them. Nor do I neccesarily follow their CANSLIM methods to a "T", but believe them to be highly reliable.

William O'Neil also has some pretty good books.

One thing though, I don't believe I have ever seen IBD or O'Neil  recommend shorting. They advise to be on the lookout for new leaders and compile a watchlist in times like these for possible future buying.

What I like the most from IBD is the Accumulation Distribution rating and EPS ratings.  They help me a lot when I'm looking for new stocks.  The Big Picture is a must read.  What I dislike is they don't take care of low priced stocks

Quote from: nica33 on March 09, 2007, 11:47:55 AM
What I like the most from IBD is the Accumulation Distribution rating and EPS ratings.  They help me a lot when I'm looking for new stocks.  The Big Picture is a must read.  What I dislike is they don't take care of low priced stocks

Yes, IBD doesn't advocate buying low priced stocks  much below $10 and they used to have to be above $15 to appear on the IBD 100 list, but I think that was changed to $10.

Have you tried this for low priced or thinly traded stocks?

www.investors.com/editorial/expandedIBD.asp

Quote from: BigSully1 on March 09, 2007, 12:05:33 PM

Quote from: nica33 on March 09, 2007, 11:47:55 AM
What I like the most from IBD is the Accumulation Distribution rating and EPS ratings.  They help me a lot when I'm looking for new stocks.  The Big Picture is a must read.  What I dislike is they don't take care of low priced stocks

Yes, IBD doesn't advocate buying low priced stocks  much below $10 and they used to have to be above $15 to appear on the IBD 100 list, but I think that was changed to $10.

Have you tried this for low priced or thinly traded stocks?

www.investors.com/editorial/expandedIBD.asp

Yes, they're very useful.   

Quote from: BigSully1 on March 09, 2007, 11:33:55 AM

Quote from: tokyopua on March 09, 2007, 10:59:09 AM

Quote from: BigSully1 on March 09, 2007, 10:54:11 AM

Quote from: tokyopua on March 09, 2007, 10:38:23 AM

Quote from: BigSully1 on March 09, 2007, 10:29:26 AM
Hi Tokyopua,

I think it's just too early too decide the bullish vs bearish case. I still think it's wise to take a "market neutral" approach for now, and continue looking for both good long and short prospects, and be ready for a more decisive move.
Like you, I think we are still in a corrective mode for now until proven otherwise and I don't think the big guys are buying.

I am really hoping that there is much more correction in store, it would be much more healthy  than the measly 4% to 5% we've had thus far.

I am not hardcore bearish to the extent that I think the longer term bull market is necessarily done, but while we are in a confirmed correction, I am a bear for that time period.  Per Investors Business Daily correction theory, we are in a confirmed correction with a rally attempt.  Today is the 4th day of the rally attempt, and as such is the first day that the correction can be turned into a confirmed rally.  IMO today was the big hope for that, but you need to see the indices up about 1.5% on higher volume than yesterday and that seems unlikely from where I am sitting.

However, going forward all we need is the major indices to show .2% or greater loss in stronger volume than the day before and the rally count goes back to zero.

As for getting long picks, I dont doubt there might be some out there, and I will buy those if they seem really compelling!  But I have stopped scanning for those personally till we are out of the correction officially.

Fair enough Tokyopua. By the way, I'm also a follower of IBD and recently renewed my subscription. 80 weeks (daily) $352. It's a great deal, less than 90c/copy. Best financial paper out there, IMO.

I havent heard many people here say much about IBD, glad to see someone else who has it.  I mainly chose my subscription to them based on their online "Big Picture" columns, do you have access to those or follow them?  I got a cheaper version where I only get the paper once a week, but that online Big Picture column alone was worth my subscription price I believe for their following of correction likelihood, rally likelihood, etc.

Do you follow their correction theory, distribution day counting, etc.?

Sure, I have access to all the online features, but I really like the hard copy and your right, "The Big picture" on the front page is the very first thing I read, and it's just  one of many regular columns like IBD's Top Ten News items (front page) and "The New America" column.

I don't follow their theorys to a "T", but yes I definitely believe in them. Nor do I neccesarily follow their CANSLIM methods to a "T", but believe them to be highly reliable.

William O'Neil also has some pretty good books.

One thing though, I don't believe I have ever seen IBD or O'Neil  recommend shorting. They advise to be on the lookout for new leaders and compile a watchlist in times like these for possible future buying.

Hmm, they definitely dont recommend shorting in a bull market, but they do reocmmend it in a bear market, in fact I have a new book by O'Neil called How To Make Money Selling Stocks Short.  

Now granted we are not in a confirmed bear market, but to me a correction is a short term bear market, so I figured I would go short for awhile while making my list of what to buy if we come out of the correction.  

If David was right in his original thesis, then I guess I got started on the shorting early... also, I am not heavily shorted, I still am mostly in cash.

Quote from: tokyopua on March 09, 2007, 10:55:03 AM
Anyone here good at interpreting the jobs numbers this morning?  It seems to me not so positive that Construction and Mfg jobs were down while the major up numbers were Service related?

Also, isnt it the case that unemployment fell in part because the labor force itself dropped by 190,000 as they reported on CNBC just now?

Hi Tokyopua

Yes re the jobs numbers, I don't follow them or chart them or try to analyze them, I just go with my gut feeling and what I see in the world around me.  The following may not be politically correct and many will disagree with me, but its just how I see the NA jobs situation and for me its very much a large part of the overall problem.

I've worked in the engineering field for 28 years, last 18 yrs at Nortel doing research and development,  (downsized, no pension not enough yrs of service, now self employed).

I've been very concerned for many years that we in NA have a standard of living way beyond our means on a global basis.  Yes we were the worlds major supplier of manufactured items and we were very good at it, but that is changing radically as this historic engine of growth moves elsewhere.

In the manufacturing sector I've seen wages rise way beyond fair market value, ie when it takes 1 day to learn how to load and unload and push the start button on a machine, it is NOT a skilled labor job reflective of $35/hr with very lucrative benefits.  This is a minimum wage range job we're talking about, but nobody wants to listen and in the NA manufacturing boom times companies just gave the unions whatever they wanted because they couldn't afford a strike, and I've personally seen a lot of unbelievable deals over the years.  They were also justified by the fact that they guy across the street gets that much so I deserve it too.   Now in other areas say machinists or industrial electricians, with 2-3 years of study and then several years of apprenticeship and ongoing training, they are in the same $35/hr range but I feel, as a true skilled job they are much closer to fair market value.

So where are we now, well I just look around and see high paying factories everywhere shutting down, a devastating blow to many communities.  Now many of those employees get early retirement (now out of the market), the ones that don't move into the lower paying service industry.  So jobs are still being created, jobs numbers are OK right ?   So now we get to the point where  everyone works in the service industry at low paying jobs, well who are they servicing ?  My take is the current baby boomer's who are spending their retirement money, traveling and buying that last new BMW.  So what happens as they start to decline, less demand for service, as the current service people are not going to expensive restaurants, theaters or buying new Beamers.  Sort of a spiral, less disposable income, less spent in the community, less demand for service jobs, less disposable income, etc etc.

Now we still have a lot of R&D going on in NA, but here again there is erosion, as many of the mid & lower range jobs are being farmed out over the internet to places like India.  Big Engineering and Accounting firms have most of the drafting or booking entry stuff done overseas.  I see it happening everywhere and its accelerating, it's the only way companies here can remain profitable at the present time.

In many cases I see the Gov stepping in with subsidies to keep the factories running, I personally see this as a band aid on the symptom rather than a long term solution addressing the actual problem.  When the subsidies are now longer available the factory closes and relocates elsewhere to receive more subsidies.  I'm a business type guy so I feel if you want to start a banana plantation in Alaska, you should be on your own, no Gov help should be available !.  But the Gov continues to support many of these areas which just don't make proper business sense, I call them Gov paid make work projects with no long term fundamentals for success.

In Canada we are not so bad off as we still have O&G and mining, where the jobs just can't be farmed out offshore.

Sorry for this bit of a rant, just got on a roll.

Re Markets, guess we call this a gap to crap on pretty good volume, now slightly rising on low volume, not what the Bulls want to see.  Looks like its gonna be more sideways slop for a while longer.

JMHO

Quasi

Thoughts on IMOT?

SIGA is on fire.