3SOF

Quote from: tocitygirl on March 12, 2007, 11:56:37 AM
Hi David,

What do you think about CPNE at these levels??  Are you still holding?  Thanks in advance.

Hi tocitygirl, nice to talk to you

No, I'm not holding CPNE.OB, I sold it at $3.2 for the Fire Portfolio and at $2.39 for the Main Portfolio. I believe the current low trailing earnings multiple of about 11 is due to the fact that www.onlinesupplier.com, the main source of revenues for the company, has an extremely high churn rate (more than 50% a month). This happens because the company's service sucks (it couldn't be any other way in my opinion).

As the word spreads their acquisition costs per new subscriber will rise a lot and the business won't have long term viability. They need new and quality revenue sources. Anyway, I believe management will be able to come up with something in the future, I'll keep it under the radar.

David, what's your take on CIMT.  They just reported a nice profit and have completed a major turnaround with new products.  I believe this has some long-term potential.

Thanks,
Mbaugh

Quote from: David Randolph on March 12, 2007, 10:37:21 AM....(man, I thought the market was closed as I went for a coffee, didn't know the hour would be changed).....

GM  David,  (some strategic thoughts)

The markets are open early ! !,  Yes gotta keep up your DD and not just on stocks and companies, Ha Ha, but don't feel bad, even Stockcharts.com had the same glitch in their system this morning.

It must have been a long weekend of soul searching which is always difficult at these pivot points.  Well for me it has been a very enjoyable learning experience / experiment being involved with the 3Stocks on Fire portfolio team, I will miss it.  As I'm not a premium member I won't be able to directly follow or input to the main portfolio, but I will whenever possible continue to offer suggestions and I wish you all the best of luck, "may the force by with you".

I fully agree with and understand your decision, just like investing and money management, if what you are doing is not working, you must re-evaluate, cut your losses and carefully consider a change in direction which will offer better reward / risk premiums.

I'm not that familiar with the main portfolio, but I understand that it can hold up to 15 equally $ weighted holdings and I'm not sure if you re-balance the $'s from time to time.  But I just thought I would offer a few comments at this time of strategic change, for the teams consideration. 

The objective is to hold long term good companies based on fundamentals and using some TA input for finding the entry points, exit points and pivot points.  With the standard format being that you buy the entire position, (6.66% of portfolio dollars),  and hold it until you sell the entire position.

My long term strategy in many areas is similar, however I do tend to scale into a position and then scale back or out if it is starting to turn, ie reduce the risk.  But at the same time never being too overweight in any one stock.  I know this is against your strategy David of being all in or all out, (off or on, no middle ground), but sometimes it is wise to take some profits.

Now as it is often wise to take some profits along the way and do some re-balancing, this will usually trigger a gain and tax implications which I may not want at the present time.   So when I'm long term bullish on a stock but there is significant short term risk, I consider buying some insurance PUT options.  Now yes it does cost a little, but it basically takes me to neutral risk on the stock thru that time of high downside risk and does not trigger a tax event which would occur if I took some money off the table.   

Just an idea where one position (1/15) of the portfolio could be reserved in cash for these types of situations.  That cash value would be more than sufficient to hedge several long positions and also buy calls where a current holding has a huge upside potential short term, but you can't increase the actual stock position to more than 6.66%.  Now I'm not talking of risk swings on the 60 min / daily chart, this is a long term portfolio, so I'm talking about the daily / weekly charts.

JMHO
Quasi

COR on fire.  Glad you sold CPNE, David. It was a scam stock and any new projects they come up with will be variations on the Ponzi scheme they were running.

Not to make your feet cold, just out of curiosity, if you ever wondered how the 1929 crash unfolded in technical terms:

Quote from: David Randolph on March 12, 2007, 01:22:43 PM
Not to make your feet cold, just out of curiosity, if you ever wondered how the 1929 crash unfolded in technical terms:

Are you going to liquidate all of 3SOF's positions again? 

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 12, 2007, 01:42:48 PM

Quote from: David Randolph on March 12, 2007, 01:22:43 PM
Not to make your feet cold, just out of curiosity, if you ever wondered how the 1929 crash unfolded in technical terms:

Are you going to liquidate all of 3SOF's positions again? 

I don't understand the question. I just shared that chart out of historical curiosity, it has nothing to do with my outlook for the market now. Look here, the biggest bull market in history:

Hi David,

I am a new member here, and I also have experienced this recent big dip and the change of 3 stocksonfire portfolio. But I think your strategy has nothing to do with current  shrinkage, so just stick with your own way, and I am sure there wont be a problem leading us to gain 20-40% annually even with this bearish market.
Also, I bought SDS before your entry, and i saw you mentioned we should sell it if SPY reaches 141.69. Could you give a brief analysis?

Thank you

did something change in 3stocksonfire.org. Now only premium member can see 3stocks and the its message board?

Quote from: David Randolph on March 12, 2007, 01:48:53 PM
I don't understand the question. I just shared that chart out of historical curiosity, it has nothing to do with my outlook for the market now. Look here, the biggest bull market in history:

Good; I thought for a moment that you had turned super bearish again.

Quote from: gix330 on March 12, 2007, 01:51:54 PM
Hi David,

I am a new member here, and I also have experienced this recent big dip and the change of 3 stocksonfire portfolio. But I think your strategy has nothing to do with current  shrinkage, so just stick with your own way, and I am sure there wont be a problem leading us to gain 20-40% annually even with this bearish market.
Also, I bought SDS before your entry, and i saw you mentioned we should sell it if SPY reaches 141.69. Could you give a brief analysis?

Thank you

I update SDS's analysis everyday in the proper thread, here: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=9065.msg92107#msg92107

If you want to make questions about any trade, please do it in that trade's thread.

Thank you

Quote from: automountus on March 12, 2007, 01:52:44 PM
did something change in 3stocksonfire.org. Now only premium member can see 3stocks and the its message board?

Yes, please read the first post of today's thread, thanks.

David,

Thanks for the suggestion a few days ago to check SPY, QQQQ etc for volume.

Looking at them today the volume is extremely low compared to recent days, I will continue to look at them.

BTW, very sobering picture on that 1929 crash chart.  That chart did look a bit parabolic, but crazy how far down it fell.

Quote from: tokyopua on March 12, 2007, 02:09:43 PM
David,

Thanks for the suggestion a few days ago to check SPY, QQQQ etc for volume.

Looking at them today the volume is extremely low compared to recent days, I will continue to look at them.

BTW, very sobering picture on that 1929 crash chart.  That chart did look a bit parabolic, but crazy how far down it fell.

I'm glad you enjoyed it. By the way, look here the 1966-1982 sideways action (but in those years inflation was very high, so in real terms the market performed a lot worse than what it seems. Ramsburg has a deflated long term Dow Jones chart, I have to ask for that one too):

Hi David and all

Yes does history repeat itself, some always say things are different now, the same rules no longer apply.

As Tokyopua said interesting parabolic chart from 1929, but also parabolic chart for the 80-90's time frame. 

Greatest Bull run of all time, thus we should just hold the course and hold strong for the long term, Right ?

Well I changed from long term hold thru ups and downs to more of listen to Mr. Market and invest with the trend and be conservative when the overall trend is trendless or sloppy.  Now I know most like to be perennial Bulls month to month, year to year etc but we also have to be flexible.

So lets continue Davids chart of that DJI up to now, and we'll see that those Bulls went thru a 6 & 1/2 year period of being in the red.  Now the flexible long term guys would still have been in for part of the drop and missed out on part of the rise, but for many of those years they would have been on the right side or at least elsewhere.

Just another thought on the subject.

Quasi