3SOF

I forgot the hour changed again so I'm in a hurry to make these updates. Nothing changed at GOOG, not technically or fundamentally, I'll keep holding the stock short.

Interesting.........

Viacom Sues Google,YouTube For Alleged Copyright InfringementLast update: 3/13/2007 9:21:18 AMDOW JONES NEWSWIRES Viacom Inc. (VIA) sued Google Inc. (GOOG) and its YouTube unit for alleged intentional copyright infringement of almost 160,000 entertainment clips. Viacom, New York, said Tuesday it seeks more than $1 billion in damages and an injunction prohibiting further infringement. Google and YouTube officials weren't immediately available to comment on the complaint, which is before the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. Viacom said it filed the complaint after unproductive negotiations

Thanks for the info Aussie

GOOG is a different short than the others on the Main Portfolio, I believe I have more motives to be bearish this stock than others, due to my "inside information" lol

My take is Google Ad Words is experiencing a slowdown and Q1 numbers will be bellow expectations. I'll continue holding the stock short until the bad news is out, which should be about mid April when GOOG reports results.

I'll continue holding GOOG short.

I'm not willing to let go of GOOG short all that easily, due to fundamental reasons. GOOG is a $140 B market cap company with 99% of its revenues coming from advertising, which I believe will go down over the next 12 months or so.

Also, competition from Yahoo will start biting on those fat margins.

I'll continue holding GOOG short.

Forgetting the fundamentals for today's update, GOOG has a perfect and confirmed double top on the chart. It even made a throwback to the pattern's neckline, which only reinforces the bearishness of the pattern.

The technical target of this breakdown is $397, which seems like a nice place to cover my shorts when the stock gets there after posting disappointing results for Q1 2007.

This is my expectation and I'll keep holding for that outcome. GOOG's results will probably be out before April 15.

Morningstar says GOOG overvalued;

http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/070312/188032.html

Anything under 100 shares is an "odd lot." Back when I was a youngster and playing the market (I got started when I was 11 -- my grandfather, who lived in Canada, taught me the market and I cut my teeth on Toronto Exchange uranium penny stocks)  there were "odd lot" traders who would execute these smaller buys and sells for a $2.00 fee.

Quote from: BigSully1 on March 16, 2007, 09:14:44 AM
Morningstar says GOOG overvalued;

http://biz.yahoo.com/ms/070312/188032.html

I agree with MorningStar, GOOG is overvalued, but I have somewhat different motives to think that way. They're afraid Google won't be able to transfer its dominance in search to other areas and competition. I'm more worried (or in this case hopeful) about a general advertising market slowdown, as it usually happens when the economy softens.

Quote from: rudynostalgia on March 16, 2007, 12:07:58 PM
Anything under 100 shares is an "odd lot." Back when I was a youngster and playing the market (I got started when I was 11 -- my grandfather, who lived in Canada, taught me the market and I cut my teeth on Toronto Exchange uranium penny stocks)  there were "odd lot" traders who would execute these smaller buys and sells for a $2.00 fee.

It's really cool to read about your experiences on trading stocks 50 years ago rudynostalgia

Tell me one thing, when you have some time. Of all the small caps you've bought over the years, how many are still in business and are publicly traded companies today and how many just disappeared? If you please give me just a rough estimate on a % basis.

I'm curious about this, because it is hard to know about those losers, since they just fade away and disappear from more common statistics. Someday I'll make a study on this subject.

As for GOOG, the chart says "going down" after a perfect and confirmed double top. My read of the fundamental situation tells me GOOG will disappoint when it  posts 1Q 2007 results, which will probably be out in less than a month.

I'll continue holding GOOG short.

It's a sure thing that this isn't going to be my best trade ever, but I still think I'll buy to cover GOOG around $400 in less than a month, when the company reports Q1 2007 results.

I'll continue holding GOOG short.

The market went up, yet GOOG went down a bit. I'm going to hold this short position until Q1 2007 results are released since my short sale is based on my expectation of a weaker than expected quarter for GOOG, as one can read on this thread.

I'll keep holding GOOG short.

Sorry for the oversized chart but its my 1.5 year setting. I was looking at last year at this time vs where it was when Q1 was released, and as a GOOG-long I really hope it goes the same way this time (sorry David, I hope you are right about every other play just not this one . Last year it sank after Q4 earnings released and on Mar-21 it was around its short-term lows, but by Q1 earnings four weeks later it had rallied 32%. Earnings were not as grand as expected and it sold off. But I'd be happy with a 30% rally and then sell before earnings. C'mon Googie!

Also per the chart it seems that when the stock price is down near the 200 ema it's been a good time to buy.

GOOG rallied yesterday with the general market and I'm losing 2.36% in this short sale. Since it will probably be my last short sale and I have this expectation of lower than expected Q1 results, I'll keep holding GOOG short, as a micro, not macro play.

The chart below isn't a nice one to be short of. Even though I expect GOOG to disappoint when it reports its 1Q results, that may happen only in the second week of May, and who knows what will happen in between.

My hand is weak on this short sale (as in any other, I don't plan to sell any stock short ever again), I'll take my 3.5% loss and move on without glory. 

I am glad you made this decision. I feel even if you are right about GOOG's disappointing quarter, there will be specularive running up towards the quarterly report which won't happen for at least 3 weeks.

FYI, Bob Brinker's Marketimer, the only newsletter I am paying for, sent out this special message on March 19th:

"We are very pleased with the stock market correction process that has unfolded in recent weeks. As a result, we now rate the stock market as attractive for purchase on any weakness that may occur in the vicinity of the S&P 500 Index 1380 level or lower. "

Bob made several critical calls which turned out to be correct: like in Jannury of 2000, he called to move 60% out of equity market; and in March of 2003, he returned to be fully invested in stocks. Last summer, he also correctly called a buying opportunity for S&P 500 below 1250.

The thing I like about his newsletter is his focus on long-term trend and very fundamental oriented approach.

Quote from: David Randolph on March 22, 2007, 06:05:05 PM
The chart below isn't a nice one to be short of. Even though I expect GOOG to disappoint when it reports its 1Q results, that may happen only in the second week of May, and who knows what will happen in between.

My hand is weak on this short sale (as in any other, I don't plan to sell any stock short ever again), I'll take my 3.5% loss and move on without glory. 

Blue-sky breakout