3SOF

MSI pushed the Main Portfolio to a new all time high on Friday, as the stock rose 30.88% on the session. It is now the portfolio's second biggest gainer, with a 73.58% return.

I've held MSI for seven weeks now, waiting for this bullish breakout to happen. It was very well worth it.

Quote from: berloga on February 23, 2007, 10:41:17 AM
You're an Oracle, David!! Bansai! That's because I bought 2 fantastic seduction pieces for my wife 2 weeks ago, now that they processed my payment the revenue projection just sky-rocketed. 

By the way, David, if you want to buy something from Fredericks, just have it mailed to my address in the US and I will send it to you to Portugal for free (I am making enough money now in MSI  )

Berloga.

Lol, thanks berloga, but I prefer to keep pressuring www.fredericks.com so they start selling internationally. As I wrote in a previous update, my brother was in China and saw stores imitating Frederick's of Hollywood. Why buy an imitation when you can buy the "original sex symbol"? Frederick's is about to expand all over the world (but maybe, instead of shipping internationally, they will open operations in Europe and Asia, it would probably cost less due to shipping costs).

Quote from: nullzero on February 23, 2007, 01:49:14 PM
Added 3k more shares today at 3.34. Im averaged now around 2.85  .

Nice move nullzero, but I'm a bit worried your hands will be weaker because you're holding too many shares (I don't know if that's the case). You could have been more confident in the fundamental background and bought all your position between $2.40 and $2.6. Anyway, great trade, congrats

Quote from: gix330 on February 24, 2007, 08:31:34 PM
David, as you expected, MSI closed @ 3.35 on Friday. Nice chart and strong bullish signal via MACD, but do you think how long MSI will continue to rally since it is overbought. I often experienced dips not long after overbought, that's why I have sold almost half of my MSI shares on Friday.

Yes, the stock can have temporary corrections and pullbacks, but I see its fundamental value between $6 - $8 per share, and if you try to sell to buy back lower on a correction, the thing that might happen to you is that you lose most of the ride.

Let me share Jesse Livermore's remarks on selling to buyback lower:

«I made up my mind to be wise and play carefully, conservatively. Everybody knew that the way to do that was to take profits and buy back your stocks on reactions. And that is precisely what I did, or rather what I tried to do; for I often took profits and waited for a reaction that never came. And I saw my stock go kiting up ten points more and I sitting there with my four-point profit safe in my conservative pocket. They say you never grow poor taking profits. No you don't. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.

Where I should have made twenty thousand dollars I made two thousand. That was what my conservatism did for me. »

My advice is for you to forget about "overbought"/"oversold" conditions. Those are mental stratagems that people use when fighting the trend, and the trend, as you know or will find out, is your best friend in the market.

I guess MSI's internal fundamentals and legitimate expectations about Frederick's financial health propelled the stock higher. At the current share price, MSI shares represent:

- 16,410,196*$3.35 = $54,974,156 attributable to MSI;
- 23,700,000*$3.35 = $79,395,000 attributable to Frederick's of Hollywood;
- $20,000,000 in a rights offering.

That means a compound value of $134,389,156, for a combined company with estimated 2006 revenues of around $200 million, with something between 35 and 50% of it coming from a very profitable sales channel: www.fredericks.com.

I'll continue holding MSI.

Nice AH action for MSI today.

http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?mode=frameset&kind=&symbol=msi&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&selected=msi&FormType=&mkttype=AFTER&pathname=&page=afterhours

31,000 shrs traded AH avg. around 3.55.

Thanks for the info nullzero

A guy on Yahoo is talking about a www.briefing.com article on MSI being the catalyst for the recent breakout. Do you know of any article? I searched www.briefing.com and couldn't find anything.

Anyway, I know why I'm holding MSI (and everybody that read this thread knows it too) and I'll keep holding.

I need my 58% profit in MSI to compensate for losses elsewhere. Still love www.fredericks.com, though, and will be on spot of all developments, but I will demand an even more attractive valuation to invest. Instead of say, 15 times earnings, I want 7 times earnings.

Even if there is an economic recession in the US, people won't stop buying $20 lingerie. Moreover, my MSI play is on the expectation of it expanding its operations, going global, to places like Europe, Asia and South America.

I sold MSI at $3.05 and the stock closed on Friday at $2.91. That isn't much of a difference, but I feel I want this business for the long term, regardless of what happens to the short term business cycle.

MSI's share price represents a $137 M value. I believe just www.fredericks.com is worth more than that.

The trading plan is:

Buy 6.66% of capital in MSI.

Hehe, I guess some of you guys started buying and I ended up getting a price a bit higher than my previous selling price, not that I care about that.

I see now that www.fredericks.com has a new design and functionalities. I hope it helps driving revenues up.

As one can find from reading this thread, there's not much public information about Frederick's of Hollywood, since the company was taken private 10 years ago and only now it is becoming public again through a merger with Movie Star (MSI).

All we have is estimates and expectations. I'm also glad to notice that MSI's specific business has been improving too, further legitimating this investment.

Longer term I believe selling quality and sexy lingerie is a great business, especially considering the very profitable sales channel: www.fredericks.com.

We have plenty of time to study MSI's business as I plan to hold the stock for the long term whatever happens to the general market.

Everybody is waiting for more details about the MSI + Frederick's of Hollywood merger, which is expected to close in Q2 2007. We know the combined company's revenue for 2006 was something like $200 M and the current MSI share price implies a value of:

- 16.41 million MSI shares*$3.13 = $51.36 M
- 23.7 million shares issued for Frederick's shareholders*$3.13 = $74.18 M
- $20 M rights offering

$51.36 M + $74.18 M + $20 M = $145.54 M, so the price to sales ratio is 0.73.

I feel comfortable holding MSI shares for the long term and believe there's a great long term business opportunity in expanding Frederick's products around the world (check those products at www.fredericks.com).

Nothing new on MSI, I'll continue holding the stock.

You know information about Frederick's of Hollywood is scarce, since it is still a private company, but I found this little piece of information that is an indication that things are going well with the company:

«The business was started by Frederick Mellinger (inventor of the push-up bra) in 1946. The original flagship store was a landmark on Hollywood Boulevard in Hollywood, California. In September 2005, after 59 years, the store moved to a larger, more modern, and tastefully designed space a few blocks away, near the corner of Hollywood Boulevard and Highland Avenue.»

If you have the time, look on this link for much more information about Frederick's of Hollywood, although nothing about the recent profit or loss numbers:

Frederick's of Hollywood information

I'll continue holding MSI.

Yesterday I spent some time watching the site, and it is really great. Compared with the competitors, it's much more appealing, the only one that one can compare with, in terms of fashion and sexy looks, it's Victoria Secrets...I can't wait until Frederick goes international.

Quote from: Dracull on March 14, 2007, 07:09:06 AM
Yesterday I spent some time watching the site, and it is really great. Compared with the competitors, it's much more appealing, the only one that one can compare with, in terms of fashion and sexy looks, it's Victoria Secrets...I can't wait until Frederick goes international.

Thanks for your nice review of www.fredericks.com Dracull

We had a nice 3.95% upside day yesterday. It seems the stock is entering another two month period of consolidation between $3 and $3.5 before another leg up towards $4 - $4.5. Anyway, I see the fundamental value, with the information I got (which isn't plenty), at $6 plus.

I'll continue holding MSI.

MSI is a low volume stock, so daily moves up or down 6% are normal. Fundamentally nothing changed, as we continue to wait for more information on the MSI + Frederick's of Hollywood merger, specifically, more information about how FOH is doing from a financial standpoint.

I'll continue holding MSI, ignoring the short term fluctuations.

This stock is all over the place.  Somebody let shares go at 2.69 today.  Sucker.

Quote from: buddjas1 on March 16, 2007, 01:12:49 PM
This stock is all over the place.  Somebody let shares go at 2.69 today.  Sucker.

Yep, some people just got tired and sold all the way down to support at $2.75, prior record close. I believe MSI will keep floating around current levels until we know more information about Frederick's of Hollywood. That is scheduled to happen in Q2 2007.

I'll patiently continue holding MSI.

Just 45,700 shares traded on MSI, as the stock recovered a bit of ground from last week's losses. Everybody is waiting for details on Frederick's to move the stock sharply higher in my opinion, as I'm confident Frederick's is a great business.

Let's check www.fredericks.com today. Looking good as always!

Nothing else to do but to keep holding and waiting on MSI.