3SOF

Quote from: David Randolph on March 20, 2007, 12:39:37 PM

QuoteEarnings out after the bell? Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

Prodigykid said earnings will be out after the close, but I don't know where he got the information, I didn't find anything on the subject. Well, it's good if earnings are good, it's bad if earnings are bad. Without the earnings release there's no catalyst to move it one way or the other, volume is low and the chart is dead.

QuoteHowever, when buying right before an earnings release, and one announced after hours, isn't that more often than not a sign of a lower than expected results release?  Any opinions?

I'm not sure I understood the question lancefur, but I don't think there's a correlation between the hour earnings are released and how good or bad they are.

Agreed.  However, I think I have heard that there is a correlation for earnings released after the bell on Friday though, those tend to be more negative from what I have heard.

Quote from: lancefur on March 20, 2007, 12:31:27 PM

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 20, 2007, 11:12:30 AM
Dave you guys should buy TGC. Tengasco, Inc. engages in the exploration, production, and transportation of oil and natural gas in Kansas and Tennessee. I'm expecting earnings to come out after the bell today. Last year on 3/20/06 TGC went from .75 to $2.00 on the earnings release.

They have higher revenue in the first 3 quarters of 07 than all of 06 so this 4th quarter is just icing on the cake. Here is the increase of production;

Year-Month Barrels(Oil)
2003-01     10,396
2003-02     10,016
2003-03     10,762
2003-04     11,025
2003-05     12,174
2003-06     12,025
2003-07     12,662
2003-08     11,160
2003-09     10,175
2003-10     11,048
2003-11     8,193
2003-12     9,731
2004-01     11,181
2004-02     10,554
2004-03     10,890
2004-04     10,567
2004-05     10,083
2004-06     11,029
2004-07     10,528
2004-08     10,117
2004-09     10,801
2004-10     11,975
2004-11     10,195
2004-12     11,457
2005-01     10,048
2005-02     10,281
2005-03     10,272
2005-04     10,924
2005-05     8,960
2005-06     11,366
2005-07     15,160
2005-08     14,071
2005-09     11,109
2005-10     12,971
2005-11     13,972
2005-12     16,463
2006-01     14,912
2006-02     13,309
2006-03     15,144
2006-04     14,919
2006-05     15,242
2006-06     18,410
2006-07     15,462
2006-08     16,350
2006-09     17,731
2006-10     17,659
2006-11     21,174  

Percent change in production versus same month in 2005 (similar to comparing Q1 to Q1):

2006-01  14,912   48.4%
2006-02  13,309   29.5%
2006-03  15,144   47.4%
2006-04  14,919   36.6%
2006-05  15,242   70.1%
2006-06  18,410   62.0%
2006-07  15,462   2.0%
2006-08  16,350   16.2%
2006-09  17,731   59.6%
2006-10  17,657   36.1%
2006-11  21,174   52%

This link explains the operations and production

The latest insider information for the month of January shows 36,000 shares purchased and 6,100 shares sold.

Can you do a 10 minute video Dave...pretty pretty please 

Earnings out after the bell? Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

I would like to get a nice short term bounce here and buy before the close. However, when buying right before an earnings release, and one announced after hours, isn't that more often than not a sign of a lower than expected results release?  Any opinions?

Lancefur, my past experience has always been negative when buying something I'm not familiar with on an earnings play.  Just because they are releasing it after hours doesn't necessary mean it will be bad, even though I do believe most bad earnings report are released after hours.  The problem I see is the fact that most people (including myself) are always looking for the next big gainer and we rush into thinking its a sure thing only to go deeper in the hole.  I am guilty of this and I am still trying to learn to control it.  My advice for you would be to not buy it if you are not familiar with the stock and to wait until after they report earnings and see the reaction.  If its really good, you can always put a small order in after hours and sell it the next day for a gain.  Even though it sounds good, I'm not buying it, I'd rather sit still and wait, there's always another day in the market and there will be days when we come across another mover like EFUT or ACOR.  Whatever you do, GOOD LUCK!

Quote from: bourbonstreet_crawdaddy on March 20, 2007, 12:36:10 PM
Hello David,

I hope that you are having a fantastic day, I know that I am - ASTI and SILC are having a great week too! 

If you get a chance, I would like you to take a look at OPBL.ob. I believe that the Revenue growth and Net Profit margins here are sweet, and that the stock may be in a nice spot for a run to $12-15 per share.

What are your thoughts about OPBL.ob?

Thanks for your thoughts and Great Work!

Bourbon   

I never understood very well why OPBL.OB was up so much, then I knew it was because NYMEX bought a stake at the company, but I still see a $300 M market cap with $16 M in revenues in 2006, so I don't understand the valuation, looks stratospheric to me. But maybe if I make some long term estimates my conclusion would change, will put it out for the poll.

Thanks Bourbon

Here are November's production figures by lease (filtered to exclude the Bear Creek Petroleum gas leases):

http://www.geocities.com/batboy513/tgc_lpd_0611.html

Here is a summary of lease production data by month:

http://www.geocities.com/batboy513/tgc_olpd_moyr_summary.html

The leases are all linked to KGS and to the actual monthly production data sets.

Please note that the company does not have a 100% interest in every single well in Kansas. There were a number of program wells that were drilled in 2005 and 2006. I am not sure when they will be paid off and when TGC will begin to collect the 85% management fee. You will have to check the 10-Qs and 10-Ks or ask company management. That makes the waters a bit on the mirky side.

Going forward from October 2006, the company has 100% interest in all new wells drilled.

Quote from: wisebuys on March 20, 2007, 12:44:40 PM
What's your opinion of WFR?  Looks like they could be a good investment with our bet in solar's future

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/activetraderupdate/10345504_2.html

Thanks for your input.

It is a $12.3 B company, too big for my taste, but will put it out on the poll.

Quote from: prodigykid6 on March 20, 2007, 01:01:21 PM
Here are November's production figures by lease (filtered to exclude the Bear Creek Petroleum gas leases):

http://www.geocities.com/batboy513/tgc_lpd_0611.html

Here is a summary of lease production data by month:

http://www.geocities.com/batboy513/tgc_olpd_moyr_summary.html

The leases are all linked to KGS and to the actual monthly production data sets.

Please note that the company does not have a 100% interest in every single well in Kansas. There were a number of program wells that were drilled in 2005 and 2006. I am not sure when they will be paid off and when TGC will begin to collect the 85% management fee. You will have to check the 10-Qs and 10-Ks or ask company management. That makes the waters a bit on the mirky side.

Going forward from October 2006, the company has 100% interest in all new wells drilled.

But Kid, on the post you wrote 21,174 for November 2006, and on these links it says 19,059. Anyway, what we needed were the December numbers to get the full Q4 2006. How do you know earnings will be out tonight?

Thanks.

GTW analysis:

That isn't including production Tennessee. It gets rather complicated. I dont believe Decembers numbers are out yet. Last years earnings came out on 3-20-06 and on bloomberg.com it said 3-20-06 was the approximate earnings date. I'm assuming they will be after the bell or at tomorrows open. Not for sure though. I dont mean to be a pro on TGC by all means but it doesn't take a genius to see the increase in barrels of oil.

TGC in the past has only owned a certain percentage of working interest in the wells. I know that it will have 100% working interest in all wells very soon. Something to do with paying off the debts.

The reason TGC has diluted shares was to pay off the long term debt and restructure the balance sheet. There is no reason to dilute shares now.

David,
I joined the SILC party a bit late, and only bought today..in high 15s..approx half my target postion..

Worth adding more here? or do you expect some pullback?
Whats driving todays jump?
Nick

Quote from: nicknite20 on March 20, 2007, 02:59:04 PM
David,
I joined the SILC party a bit late, and only bought today..in high 15s..approx half my target postion..

Worth adding more here? or do you expect some pullback?
Whats driving todays jump?
Nick

Hi Nick, you should make that question at SILC's thread on the Main Portfolio message board, and I'll address it on the daily updates.

I can't comment on intraday developments, you know, you need to focus on long term fundamentals. As for position size, I always invest a fixed portion of capital in each stock, in the Main's case it is 6.66% and I never average up or down, so I don't understand the question "should I add more"?

You already need to know what to buy and when to buy it, you don't need to answer the question on "how much to buy", that should be pre-set.

I don't think long term estimates differ much if one buys at $13, $15 or $17, but if you put the question on the proper place, I'll make the calculus

Thanks

Thanks David..gotcha.

Hi David,

I know how bullish you are on China, so thought you might be interested in an article I just read on some new changes in China.

- New laws protecting property
- New options and futures for the stock market in China
- New investment fund to be created in China

That last one could have ongoing consequences for the US dollar

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/weiss/2007/0319.html

Good Day
Quasi

ONT analysis:

Quote from: Quasi on March 20, 2007, 03:22:49 PM
Hi David,

I know how bullish you are on China, so thought you might be interested in an article I just read on some new changes in China.

- New laws protecting property
- New options and futures for the stock market in China
- New investment fund to be created in China

That last one could have ongoing consequences for the US dollar

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/weiss/2007/0319.html

Good Day
Quasi

Thanks Quasi, I'm printing to read it in bed

Ok, the market is closed now, I'll have to wait about 1 hour for Reuters Data Link to update my Metastock database and then run my technical filter to see if I find some more good candidates for today's poll.

The poll will run from, say, 6 PM ET to 2 AM (that's when I wake up here in Portugal).

Thanks for today's talk, and don't forget to vote for tomorrow's video analysis, see ya