3SOF

well let´s laugh again 

1)
Novatel Wireless downgraded to "market perform" - update
Tuesday, March 27, 2007 2:38:00 PM ET
Avondale Partners
NEW YORK, March 27 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Avondale Partners downgrade Novatel Wireless Inc (NVTL.NAS) to "market perform." The target price is set to $15.
In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that the downgrade in rating is based on valuation. The company's share price has appreciated by 57% so far this year, the analysts report. Novatel Wireless' fundamentals remain robust and the company is expected to witness continued growth in demand for data cards and embedded modems, Avondale Partners adds.

vs.

2)
Novatel Wireless "market perform," target price raised
Thursday, March 29, 2007 2:21:16 AM ET
Avondale Partners
NEW YORK, March 29 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at Avondale Partners reiterate their "market perform" rating on Novatel Wireless (NVTL.NAS). The target price has been raised from $15 to $18.

cheers
Oliver

latest update  :

Novatel Wireless "market perform," target price raised

Thursday, March 29, 2007 6:45:11 AM ET
Avondale Partners

NEW YORK, March 29 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Avondale Partners maintain their "market perform" rating on Novatel Wireless Inc (NVTL.NAS), while raising their estimates for the company. The target price has been raised from $15 to $18.
In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that the company has raised its non-GAAP EPS and sales guidance for 1Q07 from $0.16 to "above $0.35" and from $80 million to "above $100 million," respectively. Although Novatel Wireless continues to benefit from the robust strong underlying demand for its products, the company's risk-reward profile is unattractive, the analysts say. The EPS estimates for CY07 and CY08 have been raised from $0.63 to $0.82 and from $0.85 to $0.99, respectively.

Hehe la-onda, those Avondale Partners have been all over the place with NVTL

I'm not expecting NVTL to close the gap opened between $15.43 and $15.95, but even if it does that, it doesn't bother me at all, as I see the stock closing 2007 above $30. Not many doubts on this forecast. I know the company's products quite well and I know demand for them is soaring. One just needs to open his eyes and know some people with a laptop computer.

Moreover, operating margin expanded from 3.3% to 15% plus This is a dream fundamental situation for me, if I were to hold just 1 stock, it would be NVTL.

I believe demand for NVTL products will surge over the next couple of years, here's an article that shows the trend towards mobile internet:

Sprint adds EV-DO Revision A to more markets

NVTL is right on the center of the "mobility revolution": www.novatelwireless.com

Despite all the recent upgrades, the average analyst estimate for Q1 2007 EPS is still at just $0.26:



But the company already guided to "$0.35 EPS or more" for the quarter:

«Revenues for the first quarter are expected to increase by over 150% year-over-year and by over 30% sequentially to above $100 million. Non-GAAP EPS, which excludes stock based compensation expense, is expected to be above $0.35 per diluted share. These expected results compare to previous guidance of revenues of $80 million and non-GAAP EPS of $0.16 per diluted share.»

Unless they're expecting a "stock based compensation expense" of more than $0.09 per share in Q1 2007, more upgrades will need to follow. What doesn't seem reasonable at all is the full year estimate, still at $0.59, the company will easily more than double that in my view.

I'll keep holding NVTL.

Periods 1 and 2 on the chart below are quite similar and I expect the medium term outcome to also be similar. I'll keep holding NVTL.

David we may have a new trend 

9EMA as first support IMHO 

Good news for NVTL just out:

• Novatel Wireless Updates Progress on OEM Design Wins
Business Wire (Tue 9:43am)

In depth analysis of the news on today's update.

Quote from: David Randolph on April 03, 2007, 09:54:16 AM
Good news for NVTL just out:

• Novatel Wireless Updates Progress on OEM Design Wins
Business Wire (Tue 9:43am)

In depth analysis of the news on today's update.

I believe today's news is just awesome, on top of the great news we've had over the last couple of weeks. NVTL's products will be sold with laptop computers, as everybody now wants a mobile connectivity solution, when buying a laptop PC.

Analysts are still way behind the curve on NVTL:



On average, analysts are still calling for just $0.59 EPS for the full year 2007, but the company already said it will earn more than $0.35 EPS in the first quarter alone. I see at least $1.40 EPS for the full year, but probably more, if we consider there will be growth.

NVTL above $30 this year is a sure thing to me.

Isn't it strange how many people are selling NVTL here, between $16 and $17, when it is "obvious" it will be a $30 plus stock in 6 months time? No, not strange, not after seeing hundreds of long term charts and comparing them with fundamentals. It's just the way things work, the market takes its time to digest new information.

I'll keep holding NVTL.

Now that I have a new valuation model that seems to serve the Main Portfolio's purposes of achieving an above average return quite well, I need to apply the model to all holdings of the Portfolio.

For NVTL we'll start by the first working variable of the model, the dilution factor. To estimate future dilution I like to look at past dilution:



I considered 2004 as the base year and got a dilution CAGR of 1.5%, or dilution factor of 1.015. But I still need to check the balance sheet to get a better feel of NVTL's financial needs.

I'll do that over the next update, in the meantime I'll keep holding the stock.

QuoteI considered 2004 as the base year and got a dilution CAGR of 1.5%, or dilution factor of 1.015. But I still need to check the balance sheet to get a better feel of NVTL's financial needs.

I'll do that over the next update, in the meantime I'll keep holding the stock.

Yes, let's do that now:



Current ratio is 3.34. No long term debt. Cash and marketable securities of $82.7 M. Receivables & Inventories are growing, but not at a relevant level for a company with $217 M in revenues in 2006.

The balance sheet looks ok, I'll maintain that 1.015 dilution factor.

I'll keep holding NVTL.

Another great news for NVTL just out:

• Novatel Wireless OEMs and Tier-One European Operators Join Forces to Deliver Multi-Pronged 3G Product Portfolio
Business Wire (Tue 8:00am)

Just a matter of time for this awesome stock to start pushing towards $30.

Quote from: David Randolph on April 10, 2007, 08:10:55 AM
Another great news for NVTL just out:

• Novatel Wireless OEMs and Tier-One European Operators Join Forces to Deliver Multi-Pronged 3G Product Portfolio
Business Wire (Tue 8:00am)

Just a matter of time for this awesome stock to start pushing towards $30.

Hi David
I think this stock will move up as quickly as it can not like it used to be very slow 

I saw some guys trying to buy as much as they can , they'll drive it to the moon when it starts the engine 

great call David

I cannot believe this stock sits unchanged despite today's news.  I think I'll just buy a couple more shares.