3SOF

Thanks for posting the news Se7en and usedcasting

Those were indeed good news, making the stock jump another 2.38% today. The stock price chart below looks like one of those that people have an hard time buying, they think "this stock was down there just a couple of weeks ago, why should I buy it this high now?", not understanding the stock is actually cheaper now than when it was down there, because fundamentals improved a lot more than what the share price rose so far.

I say this because the news out on April 5 has lead me to believe revenues will grow 30% a year going forward, instead of the historical 11% rate.

The valuation model says ALDN is the 5th most attractive stock in the Main Portfolio, with a % to exit estimate of 147%. I'll keep on holding ALDN.

ALDN cut to neutral from buy by UBS.

Quote from: soxguy on April 19, 2007, 09:05:28 AM
ALDN cut to neutral from buy by UBS.

Thanks for posting that downgrade soxguy. People were eager to take profits on ALDN (as they always are when gaining). The stock closed the gap it had left open, volume picked up even more, and no doubt the bull trend will continue. I will also continue holding ALDN.

Not to belabor options expiration/downgrade theory, but isn't it just a little coincidental that the downgrade comes just as Aldn was approaching the April $22.50 call? Again,it makes one go Hmmm.

Quote from: soxguy on April 20, 2007, 11:29:11 AM
Not to belabor options expiration/downgrade theory, but isn't it just a little coincidental that the downgrade comes just as Aldn was approaching the April $22.50 call? Again,it makes one go Hmmm.

I agree soxguy, no doubt options and option players play a role in the short term evolution of stock prices, but over the long term only the fundamental economic value of companies matters.

After putting a strong foot in India:

• Aladdin Wins Deal to Supply Up to 3.8 Million Indian IT Students with eToken Authentication Keys
PR Newswire (Wed, Apr 4)

... ALDN closed a nice deal in China:

• Largest Chinese Provider of Intelligent Pattern Recognition Solutions Chooses Aladdin HASP
PR Newswire (Wed, Apr 18)

I believe fighting piracy is and will continue to be one of the major concerns of software companies. ALDN has the answer: http://www.aladdin.com/HASP/

My valuation model calls for 30% average annual revenue growth between now and 2009 for ALDN. I believe this is reasonable and will lead ALDN shares higher at a 58% compound annual growth rate.

I'll keep holding ALDN.

Nothing new happened on ALDN yesterday, as the stock was barely changed on low volume of 54,400 shares. Also no new fundamental information.

I'll keep holding ALDN.

We'll probably get some more highlights to ALDN's financial performance in May 9, when the company hosts its 2007 analyst day:

• Aladdin to Host 2007 Analyst Day in New York
PR Newswire (Tue, Apr 17)

Or maybe we'll get Q1 results before that, since Q1 2006 results were out in April 24. Either way, ALDN is the 4th best stock in the Main Portfolio, so no doubts I'll keep holding it.

I have nothing new to add to previous updates, just leaving the updated chart for ALDN.

ALDN continues to consolidate the recent bull run. The valuation model says the stock is quite attractive:



I'll keep on holding ALDN.

fyi:
ALDN: To Release Q1 Results Apr 30 [BMO]
Saturday , April 28, 2007 06:00ET

Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. (Nasdaq NM: ALDN) is scheduled to release its Q1 financial results on April 30, 2007, before the market opens (BMO).

CONSENSUS ESTIMATES:
Q1 Revenue: $23.94 million
Q1 EPS: $0.28 per share

PREVIOUS PERIOD:
Prev Q1 Revenue: $22.88 million
Prev Q1 EPS: $0.28 per share

Earnings will probably be .24 ALDN will go down from here.

Quote from: yukiii on April 30, 2007, 01:10:46 AM
Earnings will probably be .24 ALDN will go down from here.

Is that so? Well, I hope you're wrong, we'll know in a couple of hours. Even if this quarter is slow it doesn't mean much for the future, which I expect to be bright for ALDN. Thank you for your opinion

Aladdin Knowledge Systems Reports First Quarter 2007 Financial Results
Monday April 30, 7:00 am ET
Record Quarterly Revenues of $25.2 Million
GAAP Net Income of $3.9 Million or $0.26 Per Diluted Share

TEL AVIV, Israel, April 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. (Nasdaq: ALDN - News), the leader in Software DRM, USB-based authentication, and secure Web gateways, today announced financial results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2007, ended March 31, 2007.

Revenues for the first quarter of 2007 were a record $25.2 million, an increase of 10 percent from $22.9 million for the same period in 2006. Software DRM revenues for the first quarter of 2007 were $17.0 million, an increase of 6 percent from $16.1 million in the same period in 2006. Enterprise Security revenues for the first quarter were $8.2 million, a 21 percent increase from $6.8 million recorded in the same period in 2006.

Net income in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) for the first quarter of 2007 was $3.9 million or $0.26 per basic and diluted share and compared to first quarter of 2006 GAAP net income of $3.8 million or $0.26 per basic share and $0.25 per diluted share. GAAP net income for the first quarter of 2007 included $0.4 million for stock based compensation expenses compared to $0.5 million in the first quarter of 2006.

Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities totaled $93.9 million at March 31, 2007, up $3.1 million from $90.9 million reported at the end of 2006. The increase was mainly attributable to positive cash flow from operations during the first fiscal quarter 2007 of $3.9 million.

Yanki Margalit, Chairman and CEO of Aladdin Knowledge Systems stated, "Aladdin's strong first quarter results, highlighted by record quarterly revenues and strong cash flow generation, provide an excellent foundation for growth in 2007. We experienced increased demand across our portfolio of innovative Software DRM and Enterprise Security solutions that protect digital assets and enable secure business. Aladdin continued to announce important product enhancements and innovations, including the general availability of HASP SRM and enhancements to our eToken line that will be rolled out later this year. In addition, our strategy and commitment to developing new markets was rewarded with recently announced eSafe and eToken deals in India, which offer significant long-term potential benefits to the Company.

"Overall, we are very pleased with the start to the year. Our strong first quarter financial performance, combined with our recently announced share buyback program of up to $10 million, reflects our commitment to delivering value to our shareholders," concluded Margalit.

    Financial and Operating Highlights
    -- Record quarterly revenues of $25.2 million.
    -- Enterprise Security business revenues increase 21% year-over-year to
       $8.2 million.
    -- Cash flow from operating activities totaled $3.9 million.
    -- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities increased by $3.1
       million to $93.9 million.
    -- Aladdin expanded its global presence by establishing an office in
       Shanghai, China to support its ongoing growth in the country.

    Quarterly Product Highlights
    -- Aladdin announced general availability of HASP SRM, the first software
       protection system to offer customers both hardware-and software-based
       security from a single solution.
    -- Launched HASP HL Drive, an innovative USB device that allows software
       vendors to protect, license and deliver their software applications,
       drivers and data to end-users using a single USB key.
    -- Formed a Software DRM advisory board to provide Aladdin with insight
       and recommendations for the direction of the software DRM market and
       tools for success.
    -- Announced new eToken authentication solution products and enhancements
       to be launched throughout 2007. These include new devices, broadest
       client platform support for PKI, full Single Sign-On solution and
       enhanced authentication management tools.
    -- Announced deployment of up to 8,000 eTokens by leading Indian bank,
       Punjab National Bank.
    -- Announced general availability of Aladdin eSafe Hellgate appliance, the
       Company's first gateway-based content security solution for the SMB
       market.
    -- Released eSafe Web Threat Analyzer (WTA), a unique tool that exposes
       content security vulnerabilities in an organization's network and
       provides a detailed audit report of potential and real threats that
       bypass existing security solutions.
    -- Announced deployments of Aladdin's eSafe SecureSurfing(TM) solution by
       several ISPs including:
       - Internet Solution & Service Provider Co, Ltd., one of Thailand's
         largest ISPs, which is using the eSafe SecureSurfing solution to
         provide business customers with the country's first clean pipe
         Internet access.
       - Green Dot Limited, the second largest ISP in Trinidad and Tobago,
         which is using the SecureSurfing to provide clean pipe Internet
         access.

For further information on product highlights, please refer to the press room on the Company's Web site which can be found at http://www.aladdin.com/about/pressroom.asp.

Future Business Outlook

At this time, while management is optimistic regarding the positive potential impact from the recently announced CIITE deal, the Company is not yet in a position to forecast the full impact this deal will have on Aladdin's fiscal year 2007 revenue and earnings per share guidance. Until the Company receives further insight on this impact, Aladdin's management reiterates its previously announced guidance. Revenues for fiscal year 2007 are estimated at $95 million to $102 million. The Company reported $89 million in revenue in fiscal year 2006.

Fiscal year 2007 GAAP diluted earnings per share are also expected to be in line with the Company's previously stated guidance range of $0.90 to $1.09. In line with the variable nature of quarterly stock-based compensation, the Company currently anticipates these expenses to be in the range of $0.4 million to $0.6 million per quarter. The Company reported GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.93 in fiscal year 2006.

Looks like down to $19.50 or lower at the open..........support $17

Thanks for posting the results La-Onda

Revenues came in higher than expected, at $25.178 M compared to the $23.96 M expected by analysis. EPS came in light, at $0.26, compared to $0.28 expected by the 7 analysts covering the stock, on average.

I like the way they talked about 2007 prospects:



So, we're looking at roughly $1 EPS as the floor. I believe the India deal can provide a lot of upside to this number. Another interesting part is how ALDN is valued at about 21 times 2007 earnings, but the Security Software & Services industry average earnings multiple is 38.54.

Another thing I enjoyed and corroborates my valuation model estimates in terms of the dilution factor is the reduction in the # of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis:



I don't know how the stock will react today, but everything seems to be on track and I'll maintain my estimates on the valuation model, which tell me ALDN is very attractive at this point. I'll continue holding ALDN.