3SOF

Quote from: David Randolph on April 26, 2007, 05:36:58 AM

Quote from: tokyopua on April 26, 2007, 12:03:24 AM
A video clip regarding LTD brands and Victoria Secret that might have some bearing on what can happen to MSI stock price based on the FOH merger:

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/finance?ch=1316259&cl=2500477&lang=en

Thanks for the video clip tokyopua. We don't know if Victoria's Secret sales are going down because of competition or because of a general market slowdown. I'm more focused on the specifics of each company than the sector they're in.

Technically there was nothing new yesterday. No news out either. I'll continue holding MSI.

I wasnt sure how to interpret the news, as there is actually a positive in it all in that they are saying the see lots of potential in lingerie which is why they are trying to shed some non-essential businesses and concentrate on VS.

QuoteI wasnt sure how to interpret the news, as there is actually a positive in it all in that they are saying the see lots of potential in lingerie which is why they are trying to shed some non-essential businesses and concentrate on VS.

I also wasn't sure about how to interpret that video.

I found an article that explains Frederick's of Hollywood history since its foundation in 1946 until 2003: http://www.answers.com/topic/frederick-s-of-hollywood-inc

It has been a roller coaster ride. But all articles in this thread point to a company at the best it has ever been.

I'll have to keep waiting and holding. Fortunately the stock climbed a bit out of the -30% embarrassing zone (in terms of money management rules).

Hi David,
MSI seems doing the old trick, down 1 or 2% each day for the next couple weeks. And it is still trading under lower volume. Take a look at today's chart. It makes more nervous about this stock. I'd like to hear more from you about this stock. Thank you.

MSI just touched 2.17 support. So how do you think of it, David?

I talked with IR again yesterday and he had nothing encouraging to say; only delay delay delay.  Q3 is still the goal. 

Quote from: gix330 on April 27, 2007, 02:56:14 PM
Hi David,
MSI seems doing the old trick, down 1 or 2% each day for the next couple weeks. And it is still trading under lower volume. Take a look at today's chart. It makes more nervous about this stock. I'd like to hear more from you about this stock. Thank you.

Quote from: gix330 on April 27, 2007, 03:02:53 PM
MSI just touched 2.17 support. So how do you think of it, David?

gix30, I always say something about a Main Portfolio holding in each trading day (of course, Friday's update may come throughout the weekend).

Quote from: buddjas1 on April 27, 2007, 06:16:05 PM
I talked with IR again yesterday and he had nothing encouraging to say; only delay delay delay.  Q3 is still the goal. 

What a pity buddjas1, the last time you spoke to them they said something would be out in April. Well, they must say something when they report Q1 results, probably at May 15. I actually enjoyed their latest quarter, when they made 4 cents EPS, even though they had an $803,000 expense for merger related fees associated with the merger with Frederick's of Hollywood (also a $496,000 one time gain on a sale of property).

What I think about MSI? Well, I bought it at $1.93, sold at $3.05, and I'm sorry that I bought it back again at $3.12. Currently the stock seems undervalued to me, since it is valuing FOH at $51.4 M and the company was taken private for $70 M in 1997. I think that, from the information I get in several articles in this thread, FOH is worth a lot more than what it was worth in 1997, so my take is the stock will rise when FOH's financial details are disclosed.

I'll keep holding MSI.

If anyone is desparate to sell, now's your chance.  44,000 bid at 2.19.

Quote from: buddjas1 on April 30, 2007, 02:16:18 PM
If anyone is desparate to sell, now's your chance.  44,000 bid at 2.19.

Thanks, but no thanks buddjas1, no despair here

The value of the combined company seems superior to me. Sure, anybody can do lingerie these days, but not with Frederick's style or brand. I believe Frederick's could increase prices and margins and sales wouldn't decline much, because its products seem somewhat unique to me: www.fredericks.com

Interesting, I thought they had discontinued their fragrance products, but no, look here.

I'll patiently wait for FOH's financial and merger details and will keep holding MSI (interesting how the February 23rd one day powerful rally meant nothing in fundamental terms).

Man, I would sure like to see some support here.  Otherwise, the next stop is $1.50 in a hurry.  MSI is testing the patience of the stockholders by refusing to disclose FOH financials. 

I agree....
My portfolio is hurtin pretty bad.
Thankfully,  I am controlling my mind and not letting my mind contol me.
We'll see how long that lasts....

Quote from: buddjas1 on May 01, 2007, 03:32:23 PM
Man, I would sure like to see some support here.  Otherwise, the next stop is $1.50 in a hurry.  MSI is testing the patience of the stockholders by refusing to disclose FOH financials. 

Yes, taking it on the chin on MSI. I guess MSI can't disclose FOH's financial details because the merger isn't completed yet. The stock is falling due to low liquidity and lack of interest, since 20 days have past without any news.

Anyway, MSI's current share price values FOH at 23.7*$2.07 = $49 M, which I believe is totally inadequate. The combined company has $200 M in annual revenues and current valuation is $103 M.

Unless FOH is running on huge losses (I don't think so, articles don't point to that), this stock has to be cheap. Yes, probably there will be some more pain (possibly Q2 results won't be good - nobody knows, not even the market), but over the long term I still want this business.

I'll keep holding MSI.

Quote from: wxmang on May 01, 2007, 03:59:28 PM
I agree....
My portfolio is hurtin pretty bad.
Thankfully,  I am controlling my mind and not letting my mind contol me.
We'll see how long that lasts....

How much did your portfolio went down today wxmang? 0.5%? 1%? 2%? If this hurts you pretty bad probably you're too risk averse and should consider more safe investments, like bonds or a bank deposit (but that will be bad for you over the long term). Or else you're operating on a "can't lose" basis, which always puts an investor under intense stress.

Either way, you have a friend here that has lived through many, many stock market experiences, and who has made and lost small fortunes and knows a thing or two about financial pressure. Just in case you want to talk.

Hey David,

My problem is that I keep beating myself up, because I had a 6% gain on the year and within a month I have a loss on the year while the DOW sets new highs. THAT STOPS RIGHT NOW!
The problem for me was that I bought the 3stocksonfire portfolio at the Top. Ouch!
Stupid me even read on the message board that you (David) thought a correction might come for the portfolio. Did I listen? Hee Hee
I keep thinking to myself that I am diversified. I am diversified.
I know it takes mental toughness to be a long term trader.
I really am trying to work on being strong and think forward and not backwards.
Ever since I was a kid,  I expected to win and never ran a business that I thought I could lose money.
I am very aggressive in everything I do.
I have to slap myself sometimes, because I really have to expect to lose sometimes.

Sorry for my venting and boring story, but I feel better now

I compared you to the biggest money managers in the world!
And you are absolutely killing them with your investment strategy!
Don't take it from me, you will crap your pants when you see this site:
http://www.gurufocus.com/score_board.php
You are beating the pants off of Warren Buffet and many others..
I placed many of the above portfolios in Yahoo Finance and your main portfolio beats 90%+  of these guys.

I am going to reprogram my mind to:
Look forward to the future and not sweat the short term

Any thoughts or opinions would be appreciated

Wxmang

I am in the same boat as you. Its hard to look at your gains go away but you have also confirmed that David has it right.

What gives me strength to overcome the pains of losing and not to sell on a momentarily fluctuations is David's resolve. He is very firm in his decisions but flexible in his mind. I am too
busy to run my own comprehensive analyses, so David's work is much appreciated.

QuoteI compared you to the biggest money managers in the world!
And you are absolutely killing them with your investment strategy!
Don't take it from me, you will crap your pants when you see this site:
http://www.gurufocus.com/score_board.php
You are beating the pants off of Warren Buffet and many others..

Thanks a lot for the link wxmang

Indeed, over the last 6 months, the Main Portfolio is up 27.5%, better than all the guys you have on that "guru list". However, probably those guys huge size makes it more difficult for them to have very high returns. What I know is that I love financial markets as much or even more than those star investors do, and I work as hard or even harder than they do to achieve superior results. Not to say that I will ever be as big as they are, but I thrive to be as good.

QuoteEver since I was a kid,  I expected to win and never ran a business that I thought I could lose money.
I am very aggressive in everything I do.
I have to slap myself sometimes, because I really have to expect to lose sometimes.

Sorry for my venting and boring story, but I feel better now

Thanks for this story wxmang, you know there will always be short term setbacks, you cannot eliminate them, they're part of a long term winning strategy. Check results on a monthly or quarterly basis, not weekly or daily. If you stick around I know you'll be a winner.

Quote from: pinoleropuro on May 01, 2007, 08:59:55 PM
I am in the same boat as you. Its hard to look at your gains go away but you have also confirmed that David has it right.

Quote from: berloga on May 02, 2007, 10:27:19 AM
What gives me strength to overcome the pains of losing and not to sell on a momentarily fluctuations is David's resolve. He is very firm in his decisions but flexible in his mind. I am too
busy to run my own comprehensive analyses, so David's work is much appreciated.

Thanks for your nice feedback pinoleropuro and berloga

We had a bit of a bounce on MSI today, but there were no news out or technical developments. It would be nice to see the stock back up above $2.17. Let's check www.fredericks.com today. Let's also check www.moviestarinc.com website. Nothing new here.

I'll keep holding MSI, as I wait for FOH's financial details.