3SOF

Quote from: David Randolph on May 01, 2007, 05:44:14 AM
Stocks sometimes trade in such strange ways over the short term. Here lyes a fast growing US based company (but selling throughout the world) with a trailing EPS multiple of 10.4, which is extremely attractive in my view.

Fast Growing? very very slow

QuoteFast Growing? very very slow

The historical revenue chart below answers for me. Thanks for your comment.

Yukiii, are you trying to show off at David's expense??

I believe you have enogh knowledge & experience to substantiate your views
with facts and TA. Please back up your opinions enabling all of us to make
better decisions.

I'm not going to smite you but would certainly like to read more frequently
your other interesting observations. Cut off the dark side 

Sorry for the intrusion
GLTA

Quote from: jorgegr on May 01, 2007, 02:40:45 PM
Yukiii, are you trying to show off at David's expense??

I believe you have enogh knowledge & experience to substantiate your views
with facts and TA. Please back up your opinions enabling all of us to make
better decisions.

I'm not going to smite you but would certainly like to read more frequently
your other interesting observations. Cut off the dark side 

Sorry for the intrusion
GLTA

Earnings estimates were upgraded $2.30A 2006   $2.40E 2007   $2.58E  2008
given a pe of 11 with a growth going forward of 7% will give you $27 which JAKK will attain  later in the year Christmas time, always goes down in the summer.  $24 is support, if market goes down Then $22. Risk reward is not great here. 10% down 10% up. Buy in October

Quote from: yukiii on May 01, 2007, 03:23:17 PM

Quote from: jorgegr on May 01, 2007, 02:40:45 PM
Yukiii, are you trying to show off at David's expense??

I believe you have enogh knowledge & experience to substantiate your views
with facts and TA. Please back up your opinions enabling all of us to make
better decisions.

I'm not going to smite you but would certainly like to read more frequently
your other interesting observations. Cut off the dark side 

Sorry for the intrusion
GLTA

Earnings estimates were upgraded $2.30A 2006   $2.40E 2007   $2.58E  2008
given a pe of 11 with a growth going forward of 7% will give you $27 which JAKK will attain  later in the year Christmas time, always goes down in the summer.  $24 is support, if market goes down Then $22. Risk reward is not great here. 10% down 10% up. Buy in October

Looks like you got a few smites Yukii, but I am applauding you for sharing here regardless of how it may be perceived.  Granted I sometimes also wish you gave a little more detail, but I didnt realize how much experience you have until recently and thus you bring a valuable perspective.  Please keep posting despite the smites, cheers to you. 

I agree with tokopuya. Applaud yukii 

Its good having a different point of view on everything. I always enjoy seeing the bull and bear views because it allows us to see the stock from both perspectives. I hope yukii continues to post and contribute, just because he clashes sometimes with David doesnt mean that his views should be disregarded or viewed as starting a rift. Im sure david enjoys being kept on his toes with counter views that are very logical.

Quote from: nullzero on May 01, 2007, 10:02:47 PM
Its good having a different point of view on everything. I always enjoy seeing the bull and bear views because it allows us to see the stock from both perspectives. I hope yukii continues to post and contribute, just because he clashes sometimes with David doesnt mean that his views should be disregarded or viewed as starting a rift. Im sure david enjoys being kept on his toes with counter views that are very logical.

Yes, I have no problem with people that disagree with me, they give me material I need for the daily updates and make me think.

JAKK reacted positively to the 50 days SMA support. My take is you give the stock 6 months and you'll see it breaking out to new all time highs above $29.33. Time will tell. I'll keep holding JAKK, one of the safest investments of the Main Portfolio in my view, because it has been so stable and consistent over the years.

And - what to do to don´t have investments in USD currency? Is there possibility to buy these 3SOF picks on Deutsche Borse for example?

It would be the same. If you buy the stock in euros it won't rise as much as it will do in USD, if the euro rises against the USD. Companies are worth the same, it doesn't matter if their stocks are in USD or euros, and the NYSE valuation usually leads all others.


Hi David,
thank you very much for your answers and opinions.
With one of them I don´t agree - I don´t believe,USD is undervalued now. And I have already lost  some money with USD slowdown. It is not in gains or losses of shares, but about investments to the USD. If I hade transfered CZK 22,50/1 USD a year ago, and now I can get back cca 20CZK/1 USD only, its  loss for me. I am thinking about to use credit for currency, to get back CZK in the same exchange rate in the future. But it is for about 5% p.a. interest,I think expensive. And it is because I was thinking about investments in another currency. IMO EUR is a bit safer. I might be really silly - by me, USD need not to be the world currency forever :-)) in common life I am very optimistic and keep smiling still.
On other side - I love US stockmarket for many many possibilities, free hands, great range of stocks and so on...You don´t find the same anywhere else on the world.
Have a nice day!
nexta

QuoteWith one of them I don´t agree - I don´t believe,USD is undervalued now. And I have already lost  some money with USD slowdown. It is not in gains or losses of shares, but about investments to the USD. If I had transfered CZK 22,50/1 USD a year ago, and now I can get back cca 20CZK/1 USD only, its  loss for me. I am thinking about to use credit for currency, to get back CZK in the same exchange rate in the future. But it is for about 5% p.a. interest,I think expensive. And it is because I was thinking about investments in another currency. IMO EUR is a bit safer. I might be really silly - by me, USD need not to be the world currency forever :-)) in common life I am very optimistic and keep smiling still.

Yes, the USD has been trending down. I was very bearish on the USD when it was trading at 0.85 per euro, but now at 1.36 USD/Euro ... I'm not bearish anymore. But I respect your views on currency exchange rates, I'm not an expert in the field.

As for JAKK, it is just unfairly cheap when compared to its competitors:



There are two tests I want to make over the two following updates: 1) Listen to the latest conference call; 2) Read the latest 10-Q form filed with the SEC.

It's just that the discount JAKK is trading is incomprehensible to me, is there something under the carpet? I'll check it out.

I'll keep holding JAKK.

QuoteThere are two tests I want to make over the two following updates: 1) Listen to the latest conference call; 2) Read the latest 10-Q form filed with the SEC.

Ok, read until page 6 of the 2006 form 10-K, and so far so good. I've learned that the company still has just 12.9% of sales internationally and it is making efforts to expand its international presence. Also the company makes low price toys and products, and one thing I've been learning in Portugal is that people cut in everything they can in times of economic stress, but not in cheap toys for their children. Toys are like a first necessity good for today's parents.

JAKK trades for 10.2 times 2007 EPS guidance, but probably this undervaluation won't last long. I have little doubts JAKK will be a profitable investment for me and people that follow this recommendation. I'll continue holding JAKK.

I'm going to keep pounding the table on JAKK, since I see this stock as the 4th best of the Main Portfolio. I guess not many people believe it (why, because it went down 5-10% right after I bought it?), but if you take a few minutes to really check the fundamental landscape of this company, I think you'll be convinced it is a very attractive investment. Or else you can wait for a bullish breakout to new all time highs, then everybody will see it.

Today I read just page 7 of the latest 10-K form (it's weird, the weekend tires me more than the working week, my kids are really wild ). No problems so far, quite the opposite, JAKK is a very diversified company with dozens of different products.

My valuation model tells me JAKK will be a $101.94 stock three years from now. I'll continue holding JAKK.

Tomorrow we'll get some more information from JAKK, since the company will be presenting in an AG Edwards conference:

• JAKKS Pacific to Participate in Toy Industry Panel for A.G. Edwards' Leisure & Lodging Symposium
Business Wire (Thu, May 3)

Hopefully this will be the catalyst to take the stock to new all time highs above $29, since it is so obviously undervalued. I'll continue holding JAKK.

Unfortunately I need to make all updates today before I go to bed, and I'm really sleepy now (it is midnight where I'm standing - zzzz, I can't continue, have to wake up earlier tomorrow), so I can't listen to the AG Edwards conference now. I'll do it for tomorrow's update.

But did I tell you JAKK is an awesome pick that will soon be trading at new all time highs? I guess I did. My valuation model tells me JAKK is the 4th best stock of the Main Portfolio, therefore I'll continue holding it.

Ok, I've listened to the AG Edwards Toy Panel, it was interesting, but people were very cautious because after all they were talking to competitors, so there wasn't anything new.

It looks like I should compare JAKK with other companies in the toy industry, for example MAT, HAS and RCRC. I want to compare their market caps, revenue growth rate from the year ago period, gross and net profit margin, sales and earnings multiples, etc.

I'll do that over the next update (today I already spent 50 minutes with JAKK listening to that webcast), I'll keep on holding the stock.