3SOF

hi,
on a technical note . could this either be a head and shoulders or a W forming ?
i will wait a moment to see .
maxi

Quote from: yukiii on May 01, 2007, 05:42:35 PM
Almost at support. A buy at $13.50
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GIGM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06120481131

Will we still see the 50 days SMA at 13.50?  Or is it a good buy at $14 today.

Cheers,

Quote from: labatts6254 on May 02, 2007, 01:40:42 PM

Quote from: yukiii on May 01, 2007, 05:42:35 PM
Almost at support. A buy at $13.50
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GIGM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06120481131

Will we still see the 50 days SMA at 13.50?  Or is it a good buy at $14 today.

Cheers,

I'm glad you asked yukiii  that question, because I wouldn't know how to answer. I bought GIGM at $12.5, and I would buy it today at $14 with the same conviction and confidence (or maybe even more so, because since then I've raised my estimates, because Q1 results were very positive). I would dare to say GIGM is more attractive at $14 now than what it was at $12.5, because fundamentals improved a lot more than 11.5% or so since then.

Let me just say I hope GIGM goes down to $13.5 so everybody that is still out and wants to get in on a dip gets that chance. My personal opinion is if you worry too much about $0.5, it will be hard for you to hold it for a $20 or $30 move. Just an opinion like any other.

There were no news out for GIGM today. No new technical developments either. My valuation model says GIGM is very attractive at current levels, I'll continue holding the stock.

Quote from: labatts6254 on May 02, 2007, 01:40:42 PM

Quote from: yukiii on May 01, 2007, 05:42:35 PM
Almost at support. A buy at $13.50
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GIGM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06120481131

Will we still see the 50 days SMA at 13.50?  Or is it a good buy at $14 today.

Cheers,

Well it went down today to $13.83, that good enough to buy here. Whats .27  when the upside is alot higher.

Some long term growth Companies

IPGP
Manufactures fiber laser systems.
Superior technology, vertically-integrated business model and low-cost manufacturing capabilities.
Fiber lasers continue to supplant traditional systems.
3-Yr. Projected Rev. Growth: +30%
52-Week Range: $17.78 - $28.00


BBND
Makes hardware and software to support switched video.
Technological lead and real-world experience with switched video.
Adoption of cost-effective switched video technology by cable operators.
3-Yr. Projected Rev. Growth: +40%
52-Week Range: $16.30 - $20.75

EV
Asset manager with a leading position in closed-end funds.
Targeting closed-end funds and tax-efficient investments, two profitable and underserved niches.
Growing popularity of income oriented closed-end funds.
3-Yr. Projected Rev. Growth: +15%
52-Week Range: $23.83 - $38.66

GROW
Manager of no-load mutual funds.
Focus on underserved emerging markets and commodities niches.
Growth Drivers:  Continued demand and strong inflows for the firm's key asset classes.
3-Yr. Projected Rev. Growth: +25%
52-Week Range: $8.78 - $36.36

You're both right; I'm not sure why I am contemplating buying at a .5 difference in the first place.  I watched GIGM go for a run back in January and never got on board.

I plan to buy tomorrow, hopefully it does not take off before I fill my order.  Thanks for the sound advise David, yukiii.

Cheers,

Quote from: labatts6254 on May 02, 2007, 07:51:59 PM
You're both right; I'm not sure why I am contemplating buying at a .5 difference in the first place.  I watched GIGM go for a run back in January and never got on board.

I plan to buy tomorrow, hopefully it does not take off before I fill my order.  Thanks for the sound advise David, yukiii.

Cheers,

I hope you got your shares labatts6254, because indeed GIGM rallied today. Here's a good example of a stock that "should have gone down" to the $13.5 support provided by the 50 days simple moving average, but no, it refused to do that and rose 2.73% to $14.32. Labatts6254, if you didn't get your shares, my advice is for you to buy them tomorrow and forget about short term movements. That  is the only way that you'll be able to hold it for the big part of profit that this company/stock has to offer you.

As I look to the Main Portfolio, GIGM is the second best stock, and that with "below history" estimates in terms of revenue growth. I'm estimating just 50% revenue growth going forward and GIGM's revenues grew 113% in Q1 2007 from the year ago period.

I'll keep holding GIGM.

I'm in @ 14.10 today and plan to hold for the long term benefits of this stock. 

Cheers,

Quote from: labatts6254 on May 04, 2007, 01:24:12 AM
I'm in @ 14.10 today and plan to hold for the long term benefits of this stock. 

Cheers

I'm glad to know you're an investor in GIGM labatts6254

Fundamentally probably there won't be anything new until the Q1 earnings release in May 22. Technically the stock seems ready to challenge its highs at $15.41, possibly even before the earnings.

I'll continue holding GIGM.

David, Have you heard of already, or do you have an opinion on GIGM's Jan 07 buying of a controlling interest in T2CN, China's online sports game leader? I just now became aware of this aquisition, this weekend. Maybe I just missed the announcement somewhere?

Quote from: BigSully1 on May 06, 2007, 03:56:04 PM
David, Have you heard of already, or do you have an opinion on GIGM's Jan 07 buying of a controlling interest in T2CN, China's online sports game leader? I just now became aware of this aquisition, this weekend. Maybe I just missed the announcement somewhere?

Yes, there was a form 6-K filed with the SEC on January 22nd, 2007, about the T2CN acquisition:

Form 6-K

The acquisition was also mentioned in the annual earnings report:

• GigaMedia 2006 Net Profit up 386% to US$31 Million
PR Newswire (Tue, Mar 13)

GIGM is pushing up to meet the recent highs at $15.41. As we've discussed previously, I believe the company will easily beat Q1 estimates which are too low.

Wow, I just noticed that since the Internet Software & Services industry average earnings multiple rose to 42.57 and I use that number for my long term EPS multiple estimate, GIGM is now the most attractive stock in the Main Portfolio, with an expected share price CAGR of 86.73% and an optimal selling price of $62.9.

Earnings will be released on May 22, I'll keep on holding GIGM.

GIGM traded at a new 7 year high today, but closed just shy of it. It doesn't matter much for the long term outcome of this investment. It is starting to become clear to everybody that the company will easily exceed the average analysts estimates for Q1 2007, which seem low:



Analysts are expecting $0.14 EPS on $34.59 M revenue.

The company gave the following guidance:



Especially given the T2CN contribution, probably the company will beat estimates. We'll have to wait for May 22 to find out for sure.

Looking beyond the 1st quarter results, my valuation model (which considers current and historical fundamental trends), says GIGM will be a $96.71 stock in late 2009 and therefore should only be sold at the optimal selling price of $61.96 (the price where annual return would start being less than the minimum 16% threshold).

I'll keep holding GIGM.

GIGM closed at a new 7 year high today (I believe it is an all time high in market cap terms, I'll dig that for the next update if you ask me to).

There's nothing else to do but to sit tight and let the profits run. 

QuoteGIGM closed at a new 7 year high today (I believe it is an all time high in market cap terms, I'll dig that for the next update if you ask me to).

Hmm, nobody asked, ok.

Yesterday GIGM broke out above the $14.41 resistance level, and today it had a pull back to that level, which now acts as a short term support. As we've seen previously, Q1 earnings will be out on May 22. I'll keep holding GIGM, the second most attractive stock of the Main Portfolio.