3SOF

Quote from: yukiii on April 30, 2007, 07:27:42 AM
Looks like down to $19.50 or lower at the open..........support $17

Nope, up 0.8% to $21, I hope you didn't scare anybody with your bearish talk. Anyway, keep up posting your views, a bit of debate can only improve the 3 Stocks premium service, I guess. Thanks

I've listened to the Q1 conference call and here are some highlights:

- Shipments and revenues from the Indian deal are expected to start in Q3, still no impact in Q2. Q2 is seasonally the weakest quarter of the year and probably there will be a slight revenue and profit decline in that quarter;
- The revenue and EPS guidance they gave still doesn't take into account the Indian deal that will have a very material impact on the company's revenues and profits, so we can expect higher than $102 M revenue and more than $1.09 EPS for 2007, they just don't know by how much, that's why they're still not updating guidance;
- They still didn't buy any of the $10 M share buyback program they just announced. They waited for the Q1 results, will now give the authorization to start buying. They're only buying back about 10% of their cash reserves, so they say there can be more share buyback programs in the future, especially if they continue to generate strong cash flow;
- The CEO says they need the cash because they're studying M&A opportunities;
- They expect to announce more very large new clients (Fortune 500 clients) in Q2 2007;
- Europe accounts for 58% of sales, so the company benefits from a stronger euro versus the USD;
- The Indian deal will probably spread across three years. What we're talking about here are 3.8 million e-Tokens. I investigated a bit, and here's how much e-Tokens cost:

Price List for e-Token

Say they're going to sell 3.8 million e-Token for $30 each, this deal alone means $114 M, divided by three years would mean $38 M a year. This alone gives us the 30% average annual revenue growth I'm estimating on my valuation model, but probably the other parts of the business will also grow.

I remain confident in my projections for ALDN. I'll continue holding the stock. 

Nothing new on ALDN, everything seems to be going well and as expected, I'll keep holding ALDN.

After what I've heard over the conference call ...

QuoteI've listened to the Q1 conference call and here are some highlights:

- Shipments and revenues from the Indian deal are expected to start in Q3, still no impact in Q2. Q2 is seasonally the weakest quarter of the year and probably there will be a slight revenue and profit decline in that quarter;
- The revenue and EPS guidance they gave still doesn't take into account the Indian deal that will have a very material impact on the company's revenues and profits, so we can expect higher than $102 M revenue and more than $1.09 EPS for 2007, they just don't know by how much, that's why they're still not updating guidance;
- They still didn't buy any of the $10 M share buyback program they just announced. They waited for the Q1 results, will now give the authorization to start buying. They're only buying back about 10% of their cash reserves, so they say there can be more share buyback programs in the future, especially if they continue to generate strong cash flow;
- The CEO says they need the cash because they're studying M&A opportunities;
- They expect to announce more very large new clients (Fortune 500 clients) in Q2 2007;
- Europe accounts for 58% of sales, so the company benefits from a stronger euro versus the USD;
- The Indian deal will probably spread across three years. What we're talking about here are 3.8 million e-Tokens. I investigated a bit, and here's how much e-Tokens cost:

Price List for e-Token

Say they're going to sell 3.8 million e-Token for $30 each, this deal alone means $114 M, divided by three years would mean $38 M a year. This alone gives us the 30% average annual revenue growth I'm estimating on my valuation model, but probably the other parts of the business will also grow.

... there's nothing else to do but to sit tight and keep on holding ALDN.

I wonder who keeps selling shares at the open, to then see the stock claw back up. ALDN bull trend is set to continue after the two weeks or so pause. I was somewhat reassured that the Indian deal alone will probably provide the 30% revenue CAGR that I need for my long term estimates, but we still need confirmation on that, which will probably be released over the Q2 earnings release.

I'll keep holding ALDN, the risk to my estimates is on the upside.

ALDN is now the 5th most attractive stock of the Main Portfolio, with an estimated share price CAGR of 58.15%. Technically the stock just broke out to new highs on decent volume of 156,900 shares.

I'll continue holding ALDN.

Finally the early morning bears got away with it and ALDN closed 2% down on the day. Fundamentally nothing changed and ALDN is the 5th most attractive stock in the Main Portfolio. I'll keep on holding it.

Even though the company still didn't release the financial details of the Indian deal, my take is that deal alone will provide the 30% compound annual revenue growth rate (revenue CAGR) that I have estimated on my valuation model, so I only see upside to my estimates, which already show a very attractive proposition in holding shares of ALDN.

I'll continue holding ALDN.

News

Frost & Sullivan Names Aladdin HASP Market Leader in Software Digital Rights Management Market
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070509/aqw006.html?.v=10


Aladdin HASP Receives 2007 Global Frost & Sullivan Award for Product Innovation
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070509/aqw005.html?.v=15

Quote from: Se7en on May 09, 2007, 06:48:37 AM
News

Frost & Sullivan Names Aladdin HASP Market Leader in Software Digital Rights Management Market
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070509/aqw006.html?.v=10


Aladdin HASP Receives 2007 Global Frost & Sullivan Award for Product Innovation
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070509/aqw005.html?.v=15

Thanks for posting the news Se7en

«In its April 2007 analysis (N1AF-70), titled "World Content Protection and Digital Rights Management Markets," Frost & Sullivan lists Aladdin HASP's market share as leading far ahead of competitors. The research states, "Aladdin stood out as the market leader in the software DRM market commanding well over a third of the total market share. The company has been enjoying enormous growth year on year, which can be attributed to its focus on technology innovation. The company offers both a hardware- and software-based protection and licensing solution, thus allowing customers to easily integrate the solution in conjunction with their workflow model. The unique capability offered by the solution has enabled Aladdin to effectively penetrate the market over the years and gain a strong foothold in the industry."»

And ALDN closed at a new high. Just let the profits run.

ALDN joined the "take profits" train yesterday, but fundamentally the company is worth a lot more, as you can see from reading this thread, I'll keep holding ALDN.

ALDN will probably give us some more details about the Indian deal over the Q2 results, but I'm positive this deal alone will be enough to justify the 30% revenue CAGR I have on my valuation model.

The other estimates I have on the model are more or less the historical norm, so I don't see much risk to those.

So, I see ALDN at $83.34 three years from now and I'll only take profits at the optimal selling price of $53.39 (the price where the stock would start returning less than 16% a year).

As I see it, the risk to my estimates on ALDN is to the upside.

Quote from: yukiii on May 15, 2007, 01:35:19 AM
Will buy tomorrow under $21if I am lucky.

I think so yukiii, the stock closed at $21.05. I'm glad you're joining us on ALDN, but I'm curious ... what made you change your mind about ALDN?

Quote from: yukiii on April 30, 2007, 01:10:46 AM
Earnings will probably be .24 ALDN will go down from here.

Quote from: yukiii on April 30, 2007, 07:27:42 AM
Looks like down to $19.50 or lower at the open..........support $17

Thanks

My valuation model says ALDN is very attractive, with a 58.2% share price CAGR expected  for the next three years. I'm still waiting for the financial details of the huge India deal, perhaps we'll get them only when they update their full year guidance in Q2 earnings presentation.

I'll continue holding ALDN.

The 50 EMA has been moving up. ALDN has been holding up better Then I thought.

it lookds like we have a bullish doji star, and according to the fast stochastic chart it is oversold.