3SOF

Hi David.

My question is when can i reenter to position in SILC.

after the latest increase in the stock price we can see a little "cool down" in the stock, now the price is ~ 20.5$.

When do you think it will be a good time to buy the stock again, or in what prices do u think the stock will be attractive again?

thanks in advance,
Aviv, Israel.

QuoteWhen do you think it will be a good time to buy the stock again, or in what prices do u think the stock will be attractive again?

I believe SILC is very attractive now, or I wouldn't be holding it. Technically the "optimal buying point" is $19.5, but I can't predict stock's short term movements. My take is six months from  now SILC will comfortably be above $30.

Good luck

TNKS

you have one of the best websites i've seen, i enjoy reading it very much.

keep up the good work

Back in today at $19.90, holding up better than I though. Buying Time

Congrats Yukiii almost the lowest of the day so far.!!!
I'm also in but at 20

David hi.

What is your recommendation about buying SILC in more than 10% of my portfolio?

Do u consider it risky stick, speculative or that the chance is far grater than the risk?

thanks,
Aviv.

QuoteAnyway, this confusion will prompt me to inquire Yahoo Finance on their method to calculate the industry average P/E (I wonder if it is a simple or weighted method). I'll do that tomorrow morning and will post the answer on this message board.

Ok, I've asked Yahoo Finance how do they make the calculus for the industry P/E and industry P/S and the answer was it is a simple average of all publicly traded stocks in that industry, using 12 month trailing EPS and Sales numbers.

realcoolhead was right, yesterday's spike in the industry P/E was a data error, the value is back down to 25.59, so I've adjusted SILC's estimates to reflect that.

Quote from: avivwiz on May 10, 2007, 03:25:55 AM
TNKS

you have one of the best websites i've seen, i enjoy reading it very much.

keep up the good work

Thanks and I will avivwiz

Quote from: yukiii on May 10, 2007, 02:34:12 PM
Back in today at $19.90, holding up better than I though. Buying Time

Quote from: jorgegr on May 10, 2007, 02:44:58 PM
Congrats Yukiii almost the lowest of the day so far.!!!
I'm also in but at 20

Nice to have you, yukiii and jorgegr, on SILC's board.

Quote from: avivwiz on May 10, 2007, 02:58:13 PM
David hi.

What is your recommendation about buying SILC in more than 10% of my portfolio?

Do u consider it risky stick, speculative or that the chance is far grater than the risk?

thanks,
Aviv.

My recommendation is to hold 15 different stocks to be full invested with an equal weighting at start, which means one should always invest 6.66% of total equity in a new holding, given that doesn't create under performance due to trading costs.

But 10% of capital in one single holding doesn't seem all that risky, for example I now have 9.8% of capital in SILC and it doesn't keep me awake at night.

Curiously SILC's low today was the same of Tuesday's, $19.8. I don't have a rigid opinion about the short term, but SILC has this habit of touching the 50 days SMA before a new bull leg unfolds (this is the important part), like it happened when I bought the stock at $12.6.

$19.5, which is the 50% Fibonacci retracement level seems like a nice place to make a bottom, at the same time the 50 days SMA gets there. We could use a positive press release (like a new design win) after we touch support.

My valuation model tells me SILC will be a $89.62 stock in late 2009, and therefore it should only be sold today at $57.41. I'll continue holding SILC, both in the Main Portfolio and the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio.

Hi David.

i saw a post that you've published which you said you believe the market will be bearish
and that in this case SILC will trade in ~ 6$-7$ (p/e of .

How is that prediction, that the market will be bearish, and the prediction
that SILC will be worth 30$ in six month combined together?

when do you see the markets change? is it effecting the strategy for the mean while?

thanks,
Aviv

Quote from: avivwiz on May 11, 2007, 12:18:32 PM
Hi David.

i saw a post that you've published which you said you believe the market will be bearish
and that in this case SILC will trade in ~ 6$-7$ (p/e of .

How is that prediction, that the market will be bearish, and the prediction
that SILC will be worth 30$ in six month combined together?

when do you see the markets change? is it effecting the strategy for the mean while?

thanks,
Aviv

That's an old post, and there's a very, very long story behind it. To make a long story short, I turned from bullish to bearish on the general market in February 28, 2007, but saw my bearish reasoning was wrong so I turned back to being bullish again on March 14, 2007. I also learned that I shouldn't care about the general market movements when selecting my individual stock holdings. And made the valuation model I have now. It was an amazing period of very fast learning in my view. You should disregard that post completely (unless you go study all that is behind it).

SILC touched the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and almost touched the 50 days SMA (probably it touched the exponential 50 days moving average), I guess it is time to have a strong bounce, and perhaps the low of the correction was made today. 

Good luck

Thanks 
Aviv.

Quote from: David Randolph on May 11, 2007, 12:28:23 PM

Quote from: avivwiz on May 11, 2007, 12:18:32 PM
Hi David.

i saw a post that you've published which you said you believe the market will be bearish
and that in this case SILC will trade in ~ 6$-7$ (p/e of .

How is that prediction, that the market will be bearish, and the prediction
that SILC will be worth 30$ in six month combined together?

when do you see the markets change? is it effecting the strategy for the mean while?

thanks,
Aviv

That's an old post, and there's a very, very long story behind it. To make a long story short, I turned from bullish to bearish on the general market in February 28, 2007, but saw my bearish reasoning was wrong so I turned back to being bullish again on March 14, 2007. I also learned that I shouldn't care about the general market movements when selecting my individual stock holdings. And made the valuation model I have now. It was an amazing period of very fast learning in my view. You should disregard that post completely (unless you go study all that is behind it).

SILC touched the 50% Fibonacci retracement level and almost touched the 50 days SMA (probably it touched the exponential 50 days moving average), I guess it is time to have a strong bounce, and perhaps the low of the correction was made today. 

Good luck

Yes, I think maybe there was a final flush of weak hands today and now SILC is ready to rise again.

We finally got some bullish action on SILC, after the stock touched the 50% fibonacci retracement level, as expected. The 50 days SMA is still coming up at $18.70, and perhaps SILC will also test that one in the near future, but that's always very hard to know.

Like everybody else I wonder why SILC needed those $17.9 M. Anyway, I don't expect them to dilute shareholder's value much more going forward (after this I expect just a 2% dilution factor). I hope the money was to increase production to meet demand, since the company's products need a manufacturing process.

The estimates I have on my valuation model tell me SILC will be an $89.62 stock in late 2007, and the optimal selling price today is $57.41, therefore I'll continue holding SILC.

Giant Telecom Equipment Manufacturer Chooses Silicom Multi-Port Adapters for Its Security Appliances
Monday May 14, 7:38 am ET


KFAR SAVA, Israel--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Silicom Ltd. (NASDAQ & TASE: SILC) today announced that it has secured a Design Win from one of the world's largest telecommunications equipment manufacturers for a variety of its multiport Gigabit Ethernet adapters, including several of its market leading 6-port card models. The customer will use these high-performance products to enhance the connectivity of its new security appliance product line.


The customer's security appliances are high-performance firewall based gateways, filtering all data traffic before allowing it into Enterprise networks. Silicom's multiport adapters will be used to enable the appliances to deliver highest-possible throughput and to give them more connectivity ports per slot, thereby enhancing their flexibility and cost-effectiveness.

"We are excited that our products have been chosen by another telecom giant - in fact, one of the world's top-10 telecommunications equipment manufacturers," said Mr. Shaike Orbach, President and CEO of Silicom. "Our products remain clearly differentiated through their innovative functionality and complex designs, together with their excellent performance record with scores of customers. In addition, our extensive product range and strong R&D capabilities make us a desirable one-stop-shop for the industry's best gateway connectivity solutions.

"We believe this Design Win, into which we have already delivered production products, will lead to additional orders on an ongoing basis. Just as important, it demonstrates market need for our high-performance multiport product lines - especially our 6-port models - and their potential, along with our BYPASS products, as a strong revenue driver in the years ahead."



http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/070514/20070514005607.html?.v=1

Thanks for posting the news Se7en

• Giant Telecom Equipment Manufacturer Chooses Silicom Multi-Port Adapters for Its Security Appliances
Business Wire (Mon 7:38am)

As we've seen on this thread, the CEO, over the latest conference call, said "no doubt there will be more design wins", so I'm not surprised by the news. I'm not sure what to think of the word "giant" in the title of a press release, I sure hope SILC doesn't have the "print shares machine" turned on. The recent $17.9 M private placement should be enough.

SILC was talking to 100 companies and they got one more design win, I believe they now have 47. The CEO said they expect about two new design wins per quarter, so perhaps we'll have another news like this in Q2 (but, obviously, it is difficult to time these issues).

The last time we had a similar piece of news was in March 19, and that took the stock from about $13.5 to around $24 six weeks later. Curiously enough the other press release was also right after the stock touched a support area, following a correction phase.

I expect SILC to continue its long term bullish trend and push towards new all time highs above $30. My valuation model points to an optimal selling price of $57.41, so I'll keep on holding SILC.

Bought some SILC today @ $20.90