3SOF

David,

Wireless business as a lot of room to grow, have you considered to analyse Verizon (VZ) ?

Quote from: Dracull on May 10, 2007, 07:52:56 AM
David,

Wireless business as a lot of room to grow, have you considered to analyse Verizon (VZ) ?

Hi Dracull, nice to see you

VZ is a $120 B market cap, it's hard for me to consider companies above $10 B market cap, because they're too big and it's rare for them to be able to grow more than 20% a year, so I'm not interested. But thanks

NVTL filed its 10-Q for Q1 2007 just after the close. No surprises there.

The general market weakness made investors take profits in NVTL to offset losses elsewhere, but in my view the stock/company is still undervalued, and will move towards $30 over time. I'll continue holding NVTL.

NVTL looks good here at $19.50
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVTL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p44494122738

Quote from: yukiii on May 10, 2007, 11:10:52 PM
NVTL looks good here at $19.50
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVTL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p44494122738

Nice to have you on NVTL's board yukiii. I'm sorry if sometimes I've been too tough on you. Good luck

NVTL is high but it should be even higher, because the company is still undervalued, at a $608 M market cap here. I'll continue holding NVTL.

NVTL continues to consolidate the recent gains within a tight range. The stock seems to be waiting for the 50 days SMA or the ascending trendline before jumping towards $30. Anyway, as you can read over this thread, my believe is the company's 2007 guidance is the worst case scenario, there's a lot of upside to the fundamentals and consequentially to the share price.

I'll keep holding NVTL.

Even though NVTL's fundamentals are very attractive (at least in my view), the stock will probably go down to close the gap between $18.72 and $18.9, on what can be defined as a "normal correction process". It doesn't change, at all, my long term outlook of seeing NVTL at $30 sooner rather than later, when the company starts raising its own guidance for the full year 2007.

I'll continue holding NVTL.

QuoteEven though NVTL's fundamentals are very attractive (at least in my view), the stock will probably go down to close the gap between $18.72 and $18.9, on what can be defined as a "normal correction process".

NVTL didn't quite close the gap, since the low of the day was $18.94 and it would need to be $18.72 for the gap to be closed. But it is impossible to know if it will close the gap or not, it is a 50/50 chance game (like most short term predictions), so I'm talking about this issue for entertaining purposes only.

Fundamentally, my long term valuation model says NVTL should only be sold at $30.15, so I'll continue holding the stock.

   Anybody keeping an eye on NVTL?  It's on fire today! Wow!
Do you think it will just go up from here or have a correction?

That gap fill worked wonders for it. Congrats

Quote from: BigSully1 on May 17, 2007, 04:25:02 PM
That gap fill worked wonders for it. Congrats

Actually it never even completely filled it. Just saw David's post.

Looking good here still holding.

QuoteDo you think it will just go up from here or have a correction?

Does it matter? I bought NVTL at $14.53, held through all corrections and I'm still holding, for a 48% gain now. If I had sold because "perhaps there will be a correction here", I would have taken a much smaller profit than what I have now (because I would have to be very lucky to buy it around the lows of the correction, and probably wouldn't chase it higher either, because to be coherent I would think: "I sold because I wanted to buyback lower, so I'm not going to buy back higher now. Better look at other stocks instead, I'm a rational man"). But no, I wouldn't be a rational man, because what a rational man needs to do is to understand the impossibility of forecasting short term fluctuations (by the way, forecast based on what, technical indicators? They just don't work, believe me, I have the best technical analysis software outthere) and focus on long term factors affecting stocks instead.

Well, sorry for all this spiritgate, I wasn't writing for you specifically, I was writing in general, just thinking loud.

Damn it, I almost feel angry about NVTL going up 10% today. My way of feeling bad when I win and good when I lose (to pursuit emotional balance at all times) is growing deeper and deeper.

Therefore, I'll just leave the updated chart and say that I'll keep on holding NVTL, the optimal selling price, considering current fundamental trends, is $30.15.

Thanks David.  I came in to NVTL a little late and was thinking of picking up more.  I am so new to all of this that I'm really asking- should I wait for a pullback, just jump in some more, or just forget it and wait for another opportunity with another stock?  I hate sounding like such an airhead but I'm only a few months into this whole thing.  Yours is the best site I've found so far for active education.  I trust your analysis.

Quote from: spiritgate on May 18, 2007, 07:11:39 AM
Thanks David.  I came in to NVTL a little late and was thinking of picking up more.  I am so new to all of this that I'm really asking- should I wait for a pullback, just jump in some more, or just forget it and wait for another opportunity with another stock?  I hate sounding like such an airhead but I'm only a few months into this whole thing.  Yours is the best site I've found so far for active education.  I trust your analysis.

Thanks spiritgate, I welcome your words, in fact, I was in need of them after being awake all night, doubting that I was making a good job (that's why I have such an headache now )

As for your NVTL question, it depends on how much percentage of capital do you have in the stock. If it is more than 10%, I say you should stay put. If it is less than 5%, you should buy more, regardless of the price.

As a money management and simplification rule I always buy 6.66% of capital in each stock, and never average up or down. This way I just worry about what to buy and at what price, but I don't question myself "how much?", or else I would be confronted with endless decisions of "should I buy more now?". So, in the future, my advice for you is to follow my money management strategy of deciding, in advance, how much percentage of total equity are you going to invest in each stock. If it's 10%, for example, you know you have to own 10 different stocks to be full invested - this makes you diversify your investments and not fall in love about one single stock, which would be very prejudicial over the long term.

So, it depends on all this. If I consider NVTL attractive at current prices? Of course, or I wouldn't be holding the stock.

Good luck