3SOF

David,
Past 4 quarters..GIGM has always sold off after reporting the numbers..dont think it will be any different this time, but i would sincerely hope it would.
Would'nt be surprised to see a pre-CC run-up high of 17-17.50 though.
Nick

Quote from: nicknite20 on May 11, 2007, 07:37:42 AM
David,
Past 4 quarters..GIGM has always sold off after reporting the numbers..dont think it will be any different this time, but i would sincerely hope it would.
Would'nt be surprised to see a pre-CC run-up high of 17-17.50 though.
Nick

The short-term sell off is not much of a concern, besides it has a history of bouncing back within a few trading days anyhow.  Take the 03/13/07 earnings for example, it opened at 12.92, closed at 11.98; then on 13/19/07 it closed at 13.01.  Since we really cannot determine the bottom of the sell off, is it really worth the short-term trading; when the uptrend progresses in the long run?  I plan to hold GIGM through earnings.

Cheers,

Without a doubt..Ive been holding on since 6.83..and adding on dips when possible.
I think we will see 20 very soon.

Quote from: nicknite20 on May 11, 2007, 07:37:42 AM
David,
Past 4 quarters..GIGM has always sold off after reporting the numbers..dont think it will be any different this time, but i would sincerely hope it would.
Would'nt be surprised to see a pre-CC run-up high of 17-17.50 though.
Nick

Yes Nick, that has been the historical pattern. But it depends on how strong the quarter is. If for example, the net profit margin expands from about 30% to 40% (as I expect to happen over the long term), I don't see how GIGM can pullback. My valuation model, which I believe is conservatively estimated, tells me GIGM will be a $96.71 stock in 2009, so it may very well have a jump to $20 plus at this point in time.

QuoteThe short-term sell off is not much of a concern, besides it has a history of bouncing back within a few trading days anyhow.  Take the 03/13/07 earnings for example, it opened at 12.92, closed at 11.98; then on 13/19/07 it closed at 13.01.  Since we really cannot determine the bottom of the sell off, is it really worth the short-term trading; when the uptrend progresses in the long run?  I plan to hold GIGM through earnings.

Cheers

I fully agree with you labatts6254.

Quote from: nicknite20 on May 11, 2007, 04:13:06 PM
Without a doubt..Ive been holding on since 6.83..and adding on dips when possible.
I think we will see 20 very soon.

GIGM has been an awesome investment for you nicknite20, congratulations for your patience to hold for a huge gain, and for not trying to take profits to buy just a touch lower - you probably would have missed most of the ride.

Another day, another new 7 year high for GIGM. I'll keep holding the stock.

"GIGM has been an awesome investment for you nicknite20, congratulations for your patience to hold for a huge gain, and for not trying to take profits to buy just a touch lower - you probably would have missed most of the ride. "

David,
Its needed a lot of will power, trust me. But, i honestly havent come accross a stock i like as much..although SILC is soon fitting the bill.
Nick

GIGM mentioned ...

http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2007/05/14/poverty-to-prosperity.aspx


There's one other stock in that article that got my attention David:

OPMR
Market Cap 190.6 mil
Earnings surprise 600%
5y Growth Est. 60%

QuoteDavid,
Its needed a lot of will power, trust me. But, i honestly havent come accross a stock i like as much..although SILC is soon fitting the bill.
Nick

This is interesting Nick. What makes you like GIGM (and SILC) so much? The revenue growth, the fat net profit margin or what else?

You know I absolutely love both companies, but GIGM seems even more magic, because after all, GIGM isn't much more than computer programming code (like Google) and SILC sells "physical" products. SILC existed before the internet, GIGM's current business model was impossible 15 years ago.

In my view the one and only thing that can spoil GIGM's party is government regulation. The US approved that law forbidding online gambling (I don't have a political opinion on the issue, didn't give enough thought or study to it), and if the rest of the world follows the US lead, that would hurt GIGM. But it seems it will happen the other way around and it will be the US to go back and allow online gambling again. They just have to figure out a way of taxing it effectively. If the US government finds a way to get its share of the pie, I guess it will allow online gambling again.

Anyway, the immediate future for GIGM seems very bright, fundamental trends are powerful. Results will be out on January 22nd and I believe we've already covered most aspects of what to expect.

GIGM is the second most attractive holding of the Main Portfolio, I'll continue holding it.

Quote from: Se7en on May 14, 2007, 05:25:48 PM
GIGM mentioned ...

http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2007/05/14/poverty-to-prosperity.aspx


There's one other stock in that article that got my attention David:

OPMR
Market Cap 190.6 mil
Earnings surprise 600%
5y Growth Est. 60%

Hi Se7en, I don't know much about OPMR, but the stock went down 9.6% today after those earnings, so probably the positive news was already discounted. If you're interested please make a request for a OPMR analysis tomorrow at 11 AM, ET, at the Analysis on Demand thread (sorry for today's miss, personal issues). Thanks

Let's hope David meant May 22nd.

the only stock that i bought ..from main portfolio..and bought high at 16

"This is interesting Nick. What makes you like GIGM (and SILC) so much? The revenue growth, the fat net profit margin or what else?"

David,
The most attactive thing abt GIGM is the management duo (now trio?)..Wang & Hui know how to execute. Period.

Theyve struck the right deals (T2CN, Hellgate etc etc)..and Everest is a cash cow.

The earnings are solid and expected to come in close to 0.90 this year..this makes them very undervalued given their QoQ growth. Mahjong 4$ is not even factored in the estimates which could be huge.

I agree, the biggest risk here is regulation..but i would be very surprised if Europe turns around. You're right, its more likely that US would give in.

I would hope Bear Stearns starts coverage soon..(they've been participating in the past 3 CCs..but so far havent done much more)
Nick

Quote from: poppintito on May 14, 2007, 09:48:06 PM
the only stock that i bought ..from main portfolio..and bought high at 16

I wonder what you took so long to buy GIGM poppintito, I recommended the stock when it was trading at $12.5. But worry not, you bought a fundamentally sound company that will come back and give you an outstanding return on your investment if you're patient enough to hold it for the long term, at least this is my current expectation, I hope I won't be negatively surprised (I honestly don't think so).

QuoteDavid,
The most attactive thing abt GIGM is the management duo (now trio?)..Wang & Hui know how to execute. Period.

This is getting even more interesting nicknite20

I always find it hard to judge the management's quality, it seems such a subjective analysis. Or do you value them by the results the company gets? (it seems so). But then, if you value the management's quality by the results, why not just analyze the results themselves and leave the quality of the people involved alone? It seems to me that by weighing the results and at the same time the people that achieved them you're duplicating the entries.

I would be interested in an objective criteria to value management, but that criteria shouldn't be connected to results, because those I already value in my valuation model.

What's your take on this strategic issue nicknite20? Thanks

QuoteTheyve struck the right deals (T2CN, Hellgate etc etc)..and Everest is a cash cow.

The earnings are solid and expected to come in close to 0.90 this year..this makes them very undervalued given their QoQ growth. Mahjong 4$ is not even factored in the estimates which could be huge.

I agree, the biggest risk here is regulation..but i would be very surprised if Europe turns around. You're right, its more likely that US would give in.

I would hope Bear Stearns starts coverage soon..(they've been participating in the past 3 CCs..but so far havent done much more)
Nick

Thanks for the interesting information and analysis nicknite.

So you're around the $0.90 EPS expected for 2007. Analysts expect just $0.62, so you see positive surprises ahead. Let me check how 2007 would need to look like to stay the course in terms of my long term expectation:

1) I would expect the share count to be about 53 million at year's end;
2) I want to see revenue of at least $142 M (analysts expect $151 M)
3) I want to see net income of $60 M, and that means EPS of $1.14 (basic), so I'm even more optimistic than you;
4) I want to see the stock trading at an earnings multiple of 38.4, which is the Internet Software & Services industry average.

If all this indeed happens GIGM will close 2007 at $43.63, I'll continue holding the stock.

becus i just recently joined this service...


my core holding is onxx and pten


its ok .im optimistic and i have faith in u david   

GigaMedia Licenses Hit SEGA Game
Tuesday May 15, 11:46 pm ET 
Latest Sequel to No.1 RPG Series Phantasy Star to be Available on PC


http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070515/hktu008.html?.v=6

"This is getting even more interesting nicknite20

I always find it hard to judge the management's quality, it seems such a subjective analysis. Or do you value them by the results the company gets? (it seems so). But then, if you value the management's quality by the results, why not just analyze the results themselves and leave the quality of the people involved alone? It seems to me that by weighing the results and at the same time the people that achieved them you're duplicating the entries.

I would be interested in an objective criteria to value management, but that criteria shouldn't be connected to results, because those I already value in my valuation model.

What's your take on this strategic issue nicknite20? Thanks "


David, I guess not, most of the management actions are translated into financials..however, all great cos have had leaders which add share holder value - MSFT, BRK etc etc and off late Hurd with HPQ

So its definitely a positive that Wang&Hui understand the business and are pursuing the right strategy towards that end.

Over the past year they have significantly diversified the business (online gaming, online gambling etc etc) some of the revenue streams of which are not yet factored into the estimates.

"So you're around the $0.90 EPS expected for 2007. Analysts expect just $0.62, so you see positive surprises ahead. Let me check how 2007 would need to look like to stay the course in terms of my long term expectation:

1) I would expect the share count to be about 53 million at year's end;
2) I want to see revenue of at least $142 M (analysts expect $151 M)
3) I want to see net income of $60 M, and that means EPS of $1.14 (basic), so I'm even more optimistic than you;
4) I want to see the stock trading at an earnings multiple of 38.4, which is the Internet Software & Services industry average.

If all this indeed happens GIGM will close 2007 at $43.63, I'll continue holding the stock. "

1.14 might be a stretch unless Everest significantly increases concurrent players beyond the average 5000 players it has currently..or, licencing revenues from Hellgate come in much higher OR Mahjong4$ is a much bigger success than anticipated. The ball for M4$ is in Carmen Media's court. At the moment, i see 1.14 very difficult to achieve.

Im looking at 0.90 * 30 = 27 as price target for this year..anything above that ofcourse is a welcome bonus..but ofcourse the May 22nd call will throw more light on this.

Good luck and thanks again for your continued coverage of GIGM

Thanks for your reply nicknite20

Yesterday we had positive news for GIGM, but probably irrelevant in terms of the stock's price:

• GigaMedia Licenses Hit SEGA Game
PR Newswire (Tue, May 15)

The stock rose 4% on volume above average, and it seems it will defy the $16.16 high before earnings, we'll see about that. I believe we already covered most relevant aspects of what to expect in Q1 2007, basically I expect the company to beat estimates of $0.14 EPS and $34.59 M revenue, so we just have to wait for the numbers.

I'll continue holding GIGM.