3SOF

Quote from: LSUJay on May 18, 2007, 10:14:48 AM
Hey David... I don't post anything too often, but check out OMR - it's ship wreck finding company that found a huge loot... 500,000 million dollars worth.

It seems like huge news LSUJay. But how do you know it is worth $500 M?

• Odyssey's Latest Shipwreck Find Yields over 500,000 Silver and Gold Coins
Business Wire (Fri 9:15am)

I couldn't justify the valuation before, but with this news, perhaps I could, but I would need to know more details. The main point is to value the news correctly, because there's no sustainability in fundamentals without this news, since the company is a $350 M market cap company with 2006 sales of just $5 M and a net income loss of ($19 M). Book value is just $17 M.

Now that I look at the chart I definitely see some inside information being leaked yesterday, look at the volume spike just before the news. Again, how do you get to the $500 M worth? If that's the case the stock is worth a good 50% more than the current price.

Thanks

Quote from: David Randolph on May 18, 2007, 10:48:27 AM

Quote from: LSUJay on May 18, 2007, 10:14:48 AM
Hey David... I don't post anything too often, but check out OMR - it's ship wreck finding company that found a huge loot... 500,000 million dollars worth.

It seems like huge news LSUJay. But how do you know it is worth $500 M?

• Odyssey's Latest Shipwreck Find Yields over 500,000 Silver and Gold Coins
Business Wire (Fri 9:15am)

I couldn't justify the valuation before, but with this news, perhaps I could, but I would need to know more details. The main point is to value the news correctly, because there's no sustainability in fundamentals without this news, since the company is a $350 M market cap company with 2006 sales of just $5 M and a net income loss of ($19 M). Book value is just $17 M.

Now that I look at the chart I definitely see some inside information being leaked yesterday, look at the volume spike just before the news. Again, how do you get to the $500 M worth? If that's the case the stock is worth a good 50% more than the current price.

Thanks

They found 500,000 coins with estimates that each is worth more than $1,000 a piece... to collectors and such.  I'm not sure of the outcome, but it's definitely hot news and could have been a pick for the old 3 stocks on fire thread.

QuoteThey found 500,000 coins with estimates that each is worth more than $1,000 a piece... to collectors and such.  I'm not sure of the outcome, but it's definitely hot news and could have been a pick for the old 3 stocks on fire thread.

What's the size of the world market in terms of silver coins, does anyone have a clue? I just wonder if a 500,000 finding won't depress worldwide prices for the coins, I mean, will they have the same value, they're not so rare after all ...

Yes, maybe in the old 3 SOF days, but now the stock wouldn't fit my valuation model (and it is below the opening price). Good luck if you own it LSUJay

(I'm going to close this thread now, will post CTCH's analysis in a moment)

David whats your take on BUCY?

is there any change to get a DIVX comment from you, David?

tia
O.

Oopps, I forgot to close the thread, and you gave me two more

Of course, I would love to cover all stocks on the planet today, but ... it's not possible. Perhaps I'll start making just a few quick comments and only if it sounds really interesting I'll go for a more in depth analysis. This way I'll keep this thread opened, to talk stocks in general.

DIVX, I know Ramsburg loved it ... Jesus, it has been sliding hard. I'm sure you know why la-onda. Did they dilute? I'll take a look when I have some more time, not in the best shape today.

BUCY? Nice fundamental trends, but already $2.1 B market cap trading at 28 times trailing earnings (industry average is 19). Sector is interesting, but the stock seems fairly valued at first sight.

David, on SXE it's a recent IPO (Nov) and there is lots of potential for dilution, so you might want to toss it out right away. I already bought a small amount in early Feb. I believe the company has excellent growth potential as you can read from the recent events

Very nice contracts awarded. Aquisition. Company beat consensus and raised guidance. Upgrade by Wachovia to market outperform.

Before you close this thread, how about BWLD for the long-term.

David, when searching/screening for stocks, what is the guidelines you have for stocks.
Like Market cap not over..
EPS of

David,
Could you pls relook at MCZ?
Thanks,
Nick

Quote from: nicknite20 on May 18, 2007, 11:52:20 AM
David,
Could you pls relook at MCZ?
Thanks,
Nick

Ah Nick, your private message didn't let me sleep tonight, as I kept thinking "how did I sell that wonderful stock and didn't get back in before the run up?" It's really bad when one starts thinking about what he made wrong in the past, or what he could have made right. There are no "could haves", if I could have, I would have, it's that simple (or it should be).

About your question, I sold MCZ with a small profit, I believe, because at the time I got worried about the general market, and didn't got the nerve to get back into it when I turned bullish again. MCZ's trade helps me in my new methodology of only considering company specific information and ignoring macro or general market developments.

I'll cover MCZ when I have some time, I hope before the next push up. At first sight the chart and fundamentals are very attractive.

Thanks David,
Thats good to know..i was scared there was something in the co. that you didnt like..Ive started a small position this morning & will monitor it closely to add more as it looks undervalued. Ofcourse the upcoming earning report is key.

Reading the last quarterly report, i noticed that "During the third quarter of fiscal 2007, approximately 28% of total net sales were transacted outside of the United States. The majority of our international business is presently conducted in currencies other than the U.S. dollar. As such, we are exposed to translation adjustments when converting, under the current rate method, our foreign subsidiaries' functional currency financial statements to U.S. dollar, which is our reporting currency."


And we all know that the USD was pretty weak the past few months..cud be interesting.
Nick

PS - dont lose sleep over seling MCZ too early / missing the run..i think uve had enough success stories to make up for this. The overall return of the portfolio is what kinds..its impossible to nail every single trade.

Quote from: Houlahan on May 18, 2007, 11:42:11 AM
David, when searching/screening for stocks, what is the guidelines you have for stocks.
Like Market cap not over..
EPS of

I don't screen or search for new stocks, the ones you guys (and girls) give me are more than enough to keep me busy. But I have a technical filter that I like to use when looking for stocks on fire, which is a Metastock filter ... are you interested?

After getting the stocks that are technically bullish I get lost looking at their fundamentals. Sometimes a few stocks pop up immediately as very interesting, it depends. Unfortunately the strategy is complex enough for me not to be able to explain it in a single post, but you have the 3 SOF Strategy document to read if you want to.

But basically, I like companies where the share count didn't grew much over the past few years, healthy balance sheet, that have strong revenue growth, high and stable net profit margin and finally that are trading below average valuation when compared to their industry. Usually this "status" doesn't last long, so the best chance is to find stocks with a recent relevant change in the fundamental trends ... fundamentals have to change for stock prices to change in a meaningful way, so I'm interested in changes in fundamentals.

For example, if a company has a 3% net profit margin, and suddenly starts earning 15% of its sales, that usually changes the company's value completely (like it is happening with NVTL, for example).

Ooopps, too long, hope it wasn't boring

David, can you look into GRB when you get a chance.

Thanks!!!

CTCH technical & fundamental analysis:



Didn't find this stock attractive.

Ok, I'm going to the chat now for half an hour before my kids arrive, if you have time meet me there for a quick talk, we're trying to put some live into the chat !