3SOF

Today was a small day for GIGM, both in terms of price change and volume. There's nothing to think about today. Fundamentals were also extensively covered in previous updates. The conclusion is the stock is very attractive. Now we just have to sit, wait, and let our money grow.

GIGM's earnings will be released on Tuesday before the market open, so Monday is going to be the last day to buy/sell before earnings. I'm not going to buy (since I already bought at $12.5) and I'm not going to sell either, because I expect a good 1st quarter and beyond.

It is time to have faith in the CEO's words over the Q4 2006 earnings release:

"We are seeing but the early returns from our investments and strategic steps to build a dominant online entertainment business," explained CEO Arthur Wang. "As such, we are looking to deliver tremendous shareholder value in 2007 and beyond."

I'll hold GIGM through earnings with confidence.

Okay, did a quick research on Gigm (see my questions on the CIMT treat).

Based on the close:

February releases fall of 7,4%, high of the day not higher than day before, next day no fall
November 2006 releases fall of 5,6%, high of the day higher than day before, next day slight rise (3,7%)
August 2006 releases fall of 2,5%, high of the day higher than day before, next day further fall (10%)

So based on this past it would be wise to get out the day before (being today) and get back in around -5% from close on the earnings date release. If only the past was any guarantee for the funture...

I'll let it sink in for a couple more hours.

Amarens

I just bought some GIGM.I may be wrong but this is what I see.Technically speaking the 10 DMA flattened out aginst the 20 Dma late april early may .A bout 6 days ago stock hits 52 wk. high and the 10 dma pulls away from 20 dma while the stock price pulls back.Stock starts coming back up last couple of days.BULLISH sign. Today's volume will most likely cross over 30 day high. which is 1399300 on the 9th of may.I have afeeling volume today will close around1.7+ either way another bullish sign. Fund. a great company m cap 836 millions,Fwd P/e 19.82 5 yr. growth rate 40%.For an internet company has more cash than debt, unusual.

Quote from: Amarens on May 21, 2007, 12:31:33 PM
Okay, did a quick research on Gigm (see my questions on the CIMT treat).

Based on the close:

February releases fall of 7,4%, high of the day not higher than day before, next day no fall
November 2006 releases fall of 5,6%, high of the day higher than day before, next day slight rise (3,7%)
August 2006 releases fall of 2,5%, high of the day higher than day before, next day further fall (10%)

So based on this past it would be wise to get out the day before (being today) and get back in around -5% from close on the earnings date release. If only the past was any guarantee for the funture...

I'll let it sink in for a couple more hours.

Amarens

Amaren,
Having been in this stock for over a year, i just have 1 conclusion..its almost impossible to time the buys / sells & to trade this stock.

Last earnings, they tried to keep it down, but it failed the next day.

Also, another thing to bear in mind, previous quarters were always reported 1-2 days before options expiry which probably also impacted the price on the day of earnings.

Anyway..the general consensus is that GIGM always "sells the news"..but hoping it woudl be different this time.

Also, the best time to sell based on previous quarters is not today, but in pre-market tomorrow, or in first half an hour of trading.

Good luck.
Nick

Results were just released:

GigaMedia Q1 Net Profit up 167%

- Revenue was $36.1 M. Analysts expected $34.59 M;
- EPS was $0.16 (basic) and $0.14 (fully diluted). Analysts expected $0.14 (basic).

Net profit margin declined but that was largely due to one time events:

- «The quarter-over-quarter variation was largely due to the impact of a one-time after-tax gain on the sale of marketable securities of approximately $1.9 million recorded during the fourth quarter.»
- «Increased expenses in the first quarter, primarily related to the initial marketing launch of Hellgate: London, resulted in a lower operating margin and net income in the period.»

Guidance for Q2 2007 wasn't very nice but that's mostly because of seasonal factors:



On my valuation model I'm expecting just 50% revenue CAGR, and the company has been delivering a lot more than that, for example, in this quarter revenue growth from the year ago levels was 95%. So I had already factored in a revenue growth slowdown, from around 100% to around 50% (but it will probably be more than this).

Ok, I see now that the stock is down in pre-market, as it usually happens with GIGM My take is that the people selling today will be buying the stock at new highs a couple of months from now.

I'll keep holding GIGM.

David,
Action this time is very different than past 4 calls where we have been significantly higher in pre-market and dropped through the day. Hopefully this time is the reverse.
Nick

GIGM: Q1 Adj EPS 15c vs 5c Beats 14c Est; Guidance Comments
Tuesday , May 22, 2007 08:52ET

QUARTER RESULTS
GigaMedia Limited (GIGM) reported Q1 results ended March 2007. Q1 Revenues were $36.09M; +94.64% vs yr-ago; BEATING revenue consensus by +4.32%. Q1 EPS was 14c. Adjusted Q1 EPS was 15c; +200.00% vs yr-ago; BEATING earnings consensus by +7.14%.

Q1 RESULTS      Reported      Year-Ago     Y/Y Chg      Estimate    SURPRISE
----------  ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------  ----------
Revenues:        $36.09M       $18.54M     +94.64%       $34.59M      +4.32%
----------  ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------  ----------  ------------------
EPS:                 14c                 N/A            N/A           N/A              N/A
Adj EPS:           15c                 5c       +200.00%        4c           +7.14%
----------  ------------  ------------  ----------  ------------  ----------

GUIDANCE

Q2-07 Revenue Outlook : For its Gaming software business, the Company expects second-quarter revenue growth on a percentage basis to be lower than the percentage growth achieved in the first quarter. For its Broadband ISP business, the Company expects revenues in its legacy broadband ISP business to continue to decline moderately in the second quarter in line with plans.

Picked up some gigm at 14.54.

Looks like it will drift in the $14's for some time before going back up.
Target $18.00 - $24.00

The following title ...

«GigaMedia Q1 net up; sees lower Q2 sequential revenue»

... is misleading. What the company said was:

«We expect second-quarter revenue growth on a percentage basis to be lower than the percentage growth achieved in the first quarter.»

They expect slower revenue growth in their software business, but not a lower revenue on a sequential basis. Slower growth is different from an outright decline. Of course growth would slow, it has been 50% a quarter (revenues of that business unit are up 428% from the year ago levels).

I believe the next two analysts are seeing GIGM right. Thanks for the article La-onda

A drop this far is unwarranted; I think we will bounce back to all new highs soon.  I can not see this trading down the next 2 days; I think we will gain back 2-4% to finish the week (JMHO and wishful thinking).

Cheers,

GIGM is having a correction that fits the usual trading pattern of this stock. It is possible that it goes down to test the ascending trendline support, which currently stands at $13.73. The ascending trendline rises $0.049 per trading day, so, if GIGM keeps respecting it, three years from now it will be a $50.54 stock. My valuation model calls for more than that, since the final estimated share price is $87.02, so I would naturally expect GIGM's ascending trend to steepen a bit going forward. Therefore maybe the stock will make a higher low (not really touching the ascending trendline).

I'll continue holding GIGM.

Isn't nearly the entire market affected after the Greenspan statements.  I mean some pullbacks have little to do with the individual stock and more with the entire market. I'm just trying to understand all this.  It seems to me that everyone took a hit yesterday afternoon.

Taken from yahoo msg board..cannot verify source, but

"ThinkEquity raises their GigaMedia (GIGM 14.88) tgt to $20 from $18 after the co reported a solid quarter with upside to our estimates... "