3SOF

The 3 threads on SONS have been Merged.
The first thread that was created was by member LuxAA.
So this thread will be at the start of this topic on SONS.

Members please use the search before creating new threads.
Chance are a thread already exist. So Please post your comments ,thoughts, questions to
that thread . The history of a stock pick in one thread is important.
"Simplicity"  Everyone communicating on this stock pick in the same place ! 

So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome. 

Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$

Quote from: setravis on November 22, 2006, 08:02:13 PM
The 3 threads on SONS have been Merged.
The first thread that was created was by member LuxAA.
So this thread will be at the start of this topic on SONS.

Members please use the search before creating new threads.
Chance are a thread already exist. So Please post your comments ,thoughts, questions to
that thread . The history of a stock pick in one thread is important.
"Simplicity" Everyone communicating on this stock pick in the same place !

thanks setravis,
great job!
i only found the one when i searched ( the one i am using)
here is a suggestion:
when you type in a "new" stock pick.
a box could appear (like the yahoo boards)
that says. "search for existing topic"
thanks ,
maxi

hi,
sons didn't pullback like i thought it would.
in at 641
maxi

1. Introduction

I read this thread, and saw my bearish analysis (unfortunately the charts were lost when we changed the server) on SONS back in December 2005. I was wrong, since the stock is up 77% so far in 2006.

My main concern back then was the company's history of diluting shareholders value, since the share count rose every year. Also I was concerned about a very high earnings multiple. I think I missed the big VOIP picture back then.

Let's make a new analysis to have a fresh new opinion on the stock.

2. Profile

Sonus Networks, Inc. (SONS) engages in the development, marketing, and sale of Internet protocol multimedia subsystem-ready voice infrastructure products for the deployment and management of voice and data services over carrier packet networks. (complete profile here)

3. Technical Analysis
3.1. All History Chart



SONS rose a lot after the IPO in 2000 and then collapsed like most tech related stocks.

3.2. Medium Term Chart



The stock has been trading in a wide range for the past three years or so. Maybe the current run up will make it rise over the $7.02 resistance level, that would be very significant from a technical point of view.

3.3. Short Term Chart



The short term chart on SONS is clearly bullish. Volume was very high on the way up in November. Let's make some fundamental tests.

4. Fundamental Analysis
4.1. Number of Shares Outstanding



You can see why I was worried about dilution about a year ago. Until that point the share count increased every year.

Actually the "current" count on the graph isn't really current, because the company didn't file forms 10-Q for Q2 and Q3 (because it is voluntarily reviewing its historical stock option grant practices and may restate results).

So, as of April 30, 2006, there were 252,505,040 shares issued and outstanding, and that's the latest share count we have. But I can assume the company isn't diluting shareholders value anymore, because they bought back some shares in Q1 and the company is profitable now.

The current market cap is $1.66 B.

4.2. Liquidity



SONS balance sheet looks healthy, with a current ratio (current assets/current liabilities) of 3.15.

4.3. Revenues



There's strong revenue growth since 2002. The 2006 expected revenue multiple is $1.66 B/$265.35 M = 6.26. The Business Software & Services industry average is 2.18, but we know SONS is growing faster than the industry (78% vs 12%)

4.4. Profits



The company is expected to report 2006 EPS of $0.15 and 2007 EPS of $0.21. The current Price to Earnings Ratio is $6.58/$0.15 = 44.

This looks very high, but EPS growth from 2005 is expected to be 400%, so, perhaps not so expensive after all.

5. General Overview

I'm a believer in VOIP and SONS is the world market leader with a 29% market share, so I find this stock interesting. On the Q3 results press release they said the following:

- «Third quarter net income increased meaningfully from the second quarter
      of 2006»

Now, what does "meaningfully" means? Especially when the company didn't report Q2 numbers

I need to listen to the 3Q conference call to get more information ... perhaps EPS will be significantly higher in calendar 2006 than analysts are estimating, so the earnings multiple would be much more attractive.

I'll get back to this thread when I gather more information on the stock. If you would like to receive my analysis and stock market thoughts on your mailbox, please register a Free 3SOF account.

the sun's (sons) rising
maxi

Sonus has record year for orders.......

Sonus Network Inc.'s stock jumped, after the communications equipment maker said it reported record orders last year.
The Chelmsford, Mass. company, which makes Internet telephony software and equipment, said it recorded "very strong customer activity" in the fourth quarter of 2006, resulting it record orders for both the quarter and 2006.

WESTFORD, Mass., Feb 01, 2007 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Sonus Networks, Inc. (SONS, Trade), a leading supplier of service provider Voice over IP (VoIP) infrastructure solutions, announced today that the first IMS Forum Plugfest(TM), hosted by the IMS Forum (www.IMSForum.org) and held last week at the University of New Hampshire InterOperability Lab in Durham, N.H., demonstrated the strength of Sonus' IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS)-ready solutions. Sonus Networks participated in all of the Plugfest's rigorous tests, which validated the interoperability capabilities of Sonus' IMS-ready core trunking solution. Sonus' leadership in IMS is a critical advantage as network operators globally deploy IP-Voice solutions that comply with emerging IMS standards to deliver next-generation services.

"Sonus IMS solution moves the industry beyond the hype to actual deployments that reduce costs and provide a platform for the rollout of advanced services," said Steve Edwards, Chief Marketing Officer, Sonus Networks. "Plugfest is one of the industry's first forums that depicts the real value of IMS. Sonus showcased the value of IMS during this groundbreaking testing session and is very pleased to have demonstrated the breadth and strength of the Sonus IMS solution in an open testing environment."

The IMS Plugfest included tests of multi-vendor 3GPP environments, multi- domain VoIP calls, and integrated SIP Application Servers with multiple IMS cores. The tests accessed the Sonus IMS-ready core trunking solution, which is comprised of Sonus' GSX(TM) Open Services Switch for Media Gateway Control Function/Media Gateway (MGCF/MGW), the SGX(TM) Signaling Gateway, and the PSX(TM) Breakout Gateway Control Function (BGCF). The Sonus HSX Home Subscriber Server (HSS) and the SRX Call Session Control Function (S-CSCF) forming the IMS SIP core were used in all test cases. Sonus was the only vendor to demonstrate complete Public Switch Telecom Network (PSTN) inter- working capabilities and was the only vendor to supply a commercially- available HSS based on open standards.

The Sonus IMS-based solution tested at the Plugfest is the same platform currently available for deployment in customer networks today. The solution provides multiple real-world benefits in the immediate-term, such as its sophisticated traffic management and routing policies, while providing the foundation needed to support the development of future IMS-enabled services and applications.

"The exciting promise of IMS is the ability for network operators to deliver innovative, revenue-generating, next generation services such as presence-enabled and location-based services, video on demand, and fixed- mobile convergence. To get to that point, though, we first must have a core reference architecture that embraces the principles of IMS to create a seamless multi-vendor environment," said Michael Khalilian, IMS Forum President & Chairman and Pervasip Corp. CTO. "The IMS Plugfest was a breakthrough event in terms of putting IMS products to the test and accelerating the adoption of IMS-based solutions industry-wide."

Additional Plugfest events are scheduled for Q2 2007, and will focus on multimedia services in an IMS environment. More information is available at www.IMSForum.org.

Sonus is a registered trademark of Sonus Networks, Inc. All other company and product names may be trademarks of the respective companies with which they are associated.

    For more information, please contact: 
    Sonus Investor Relations:            Sonus Media Relations: 
    Jocelyn Philbrook                    Sarah McAuley 
    978-614-8672                         978-614-8745 
    [email protected]              [email protected] 

SOURCE Sonus Networks, Inc.


Investor Relations, Jocelyn Philbrook, +1-978-614-8672, or [email protected], 
Media Relations, Sarah McAuley, +1-978-614-8745, or [email protected], both of 
Sonus Networks Inc. 

http://www.sonusnet.com 

Copyright (C) 2007 PR Newswire. All rights reserved

Ready for some more...

Recent CandleStick Analysis
Feb-02-2007 Bullish Engulfing 

Support @ $7.50...7.10...6.50
Resistance @ $7.69...8.15

52wk Range: 3.81 - 7.80
Volume: 7,783,055
Avg Vol (3m): 5,363,260

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
4.89%above 13-day MA
12.15%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 95 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,323.13 
P/E Ratio: 75.35 
PEG Ratio: 1.32857 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Hold

Potential breakout looms,
great support on the 20-day MA....... 


Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
4.99%above 13-day MA
11.47%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 96 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,323.13 
P/E Ratio: 75.35 
PEG Ratio: 1.32857 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Hold

BreakOut.......


52wk Range: 3.81 - 8.78
Volume: 13,581,535
Avg Vol (3m): 5,914,690

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
11.84%above 13-day MA
17.32%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 91 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,323.13 
P/E Ratio: 75.35 
PEG Ratio: 1.32857 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: Hold

Sonus reports sales boost in Q1
Sonus Networks' quarterly revenue rises to $71 mln

Sonus Networks Inc., which makes Internet telephony equipment, said sales rose 18 percent in the first quarter.
The Westford, Mass.-based firm said it took in $71 million in the quarter ended March 31.

Sonus also said its cash increased by about $5 million in the quarter to $366 million. But Sonus indicated that its operating profits shrank due to costs related to its ongoing review of its stock option grants.

The company said it would not be able provide complete financial results until its completes the stock option probe is in the "final stage." Sonus has already said it expects to restate some of its past financial results as a result of the review.



Oversold in uptrend. Also note OBV shows underlying strength.

52wk Range: 3.81 - 8.78
Volume: 11,683,908
Avg Vol (3m): 5,564,910

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
3.47%above 13-day MA
3.65%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 79 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $2,035.19 
P/E Ratio: 115.91 
PEG Ratio: 1.59286 
Next Earnings: 08/07/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Equal-weight

BreakOut.......Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) Pattern
13-day MA crossed over the 50-day MA


UPDATE 1-RESEARCH ALERT-Raymond James ups Sonus Networks rating
Current Prior Rating Strong buy Outperform

--Raymond James said the softswitch market offers a compelling long-term investment opportunity and Sonus is in the early stages of a multi-year carrier "cost avoidance" transition.

--The brokerage said the year is shaping up nicely for an accelerated revenue potential for the telecommunications gear maker. Raymond James has a price target of $10 on the stock. (Reporting by Sankalp Saini in Bangalore)



52wk Range: 3.81 - 8.78
Volume: 7,279,163
Avg Vol (3m): 5,666,500

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
7.20%above 13-day MA
9.85%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 87 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $2,047.82 
P/E Ratio: 116.62 
PEG Ratio: 1.73571 
Next Earnings: 08/07/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Equal-weight

this looks nice.. but don't you think it will try to close the gap first before going further up?

Watch err close.......

• Analyst Upgrades Sonus on Growing Demand
AP (Wed 12:03pm) 



Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
13.00%above 13-day MA
11.69%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 18 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $1,577.07 
P/E Ratio: 19.72 
PEG Ratio: 6.65462 
Next Earnings: 11/08/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Outperform

AP
Analyst Upgrades Sonus on Growing Demand
Wednesday October 17, 12:03 pm ET 
Analyst Upgrades Sonus Shares on Strong Product Demand, Increased Orders, Going Into 4th-Qtr


NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Sonus Networks Inc. rose Wednesday after an analyst's upgrade of the stock on strong product demand and growth predictions.
PiperJaffray analyst Troy D. Jensen raised his rating on shares of the company, which makes products for voice over Internet protocol, or VoIP, networks, to "Outperform" or "Buy" from "Market Perform" or "Hold" and his price target to $8 from $6.50.


"We continue to believe Sonus is one of the best positioned companies in the VoIP equipment market and the company's dominant position in high-density media gateways is a clear reflection of its superior technology," Jensen said in a client note.

Demand for Sonus's products has grown this period, and the company continues to place orders with suppliers and manufacturing partners, both of which should fuel fourth-quarter growth, Jensen said.

The company's share of the "broader VoIP Media Gateway market" -- 19.3 percent or $62 million -- means it is the top performer in the market's high-density segment, with 29.2 percent share, Jensen said.

The Westford, Mass.-based company is scheduled to report third-quarter earnings after the market closes on Nov. 8. Analysts expect third-quarter profit of a penny on revenue of $75.8 million.

For the fourth quarter, Jensen said revenue could "easily" surpass $100 million, though a high number of competitors in a relatively narrow sector could hinder progress toward that goal.

Shares of Sonus rose 69 cents, or 11 percent, to $6.95 in Wednesday morning trading.