3SOF

ALDN is about to breakout above the $22.27 resistance level. I feel so comfortable holding this stock, don't you? The Indian deal expectation will support it going forward, between other very attractive fundamentals, like the $93 M cash pile, for example.

Also, I enjoy their solutions to fight software piracy, they make a lot of sense to me. Check them at www.aladdin.com.

I'll keep holding ALDN for the long term.

ALDN closed just one cent shy of a new high. Fundamentally nothing changed. I'll continue holding it.

Nice bullish breakout for ALDN. No news out. I'll keep holding.

DJ Aladdin Knowledge Systems Cut To Sector Perform At CIBC

.

  (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

  June 04, 2007 06:54 ET (10:54 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 06 54 AM EDT 06-04-07     Don't you know,it's always something.

Quote from: soxguy on June 04, 2007, 09:09:14 AM
DJ Aladdin Knowledge Systems Cut To Sector Perform At CIBC

.

  (MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

  June 04, 2007 06:54 ET (10:54 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 06 54 AM EDT 06-04-07     Don't you know,it's always something.

Thanks for the info soxguy, do you have a link? Did they justify? Looks like a nice buying opportunity, someone was left out of the bull run and wants cheap shares.

DJ Aladdin Knowledge Systems Was Sector Outperform At CIBC

.

  (END) Dow Jones Newswires

  June 04, 2007 06:55 ET (10:55 GMT)

  Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.- - 06 55 AM EDT 06-04-07

**Brought to you by Scottrader, a product of Scottrade Inc**        David,this is all I have,through scottrade.

QuoteDavid,this is all I have,through scottrade.

Thanks soxguy, I wonder who acts blindly on such information. ALDN down 3.4% at the open. Patience.

NEW YORK, June 4 (newratings.com) - Analysts at CIBC World Markets downgrade Aladdin Knowledge Systems Limited (ticker: ALDN) from "sector outperform" to "sector perform." The target price is set to $23.

CIBC downgraded ALDN without saying the reason, the stock opened down but recovered some ground. My take is it will take less than a week for ALDN to be at new highs above $23.

Stock is very attractive in my view, as one can see from reading this thread or considering my valuation model. I'll keep holding ALDN.

ALDN: CIBC Cuts to Sector Perform from Outperform; Sets Tgt @ $23; Analyst Notes
Monday , June 04, 2007 07:56ET
Issuer: Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. (NasdaqNM: ALDN)
Analyst Firm:  CIBC World Markets
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Sector Perform (from Outperform)
Target Price: $23.00
Analyst Comments: The firm cites valuation as basis for their downgrade.

&

ALDN: Friedman Cuts to Mkt Perform from Outperform; Cuts Tgt to $24 vs $25; Analyst Notes
Tuesday , June 05, 2007 08:29ET
Issuer: Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. (NasdaqNM: ALDN)
Analyst Firm:  Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc.
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Mkt Perform (from Outperform)
Target Price Action: DECREASE
Target Price: $24.00 (-4.00% from $25.00)
Analyst Comments: Over the last six months, shares of ALDN are up roughly 30%, as the company has been able to post consistent quarterly results, coupled with the announcement of its India mega-deal and a share buyback. Given the strength of the stock since the India deal in early April, the firm believes the good news from this deal is already "baked into the stock" at current levels.

Thanks for the info la-onda (applaud).

I wonder why they're able to say "baked into the stock" when they don't know the details of the deal (unless they have inside information, but I don't think so). They speculate the deal is irrelevant, I speculate it will make ALDN's revenues rise not 10%, but 30% a year for the next three years.

CIBC is taking the stock down over the short term, but I believe it is just a short term blip.

Shares of Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd., a computer network security provider, declined on Monday after an analyst downgraded the shares on a sharply-higher stock price and no catalysts to lift shares in the near term.

CIBC World Markets analyst Shaul Eyal lowered his rating on the shares to "Sector Performer" from "Sector Outperformer," following a nearly 30 percent rise in the shares since April 2.

On April 4, the company inked a security services contract with The Consortium for Indian Information Technology Education, which provides IT education in India, for an undisclosed amount. Aladdin will provide 3.8 million Consortium students with an eToken security system to access online academic services.

But Eyal said India is a new market for the company and adds execution risk, while revenue recognition from the deal remains "foggy.

"We still believe there is a lot of underlying variability and unknowns in this deal with regards to timeline of deployment and whether eToken costs would be borne by The Consortium for Indian Information Technology Education or passed on to students, which we think may end up impacting the adoption rate," Eyal wrote.

Quote from: yukiii on June 05, 2007, 11:55:46 PM
Shares of Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd., a computer network security provider, declined on Monday after an analyst downgraded the shares on a sharply-higher stock price and no catalysts to lift shares in the near term.

CIBC World Markets analyst Shaul Eyal lowered his rating on the shares to "Sector Performer" from "Sector Outperformer," following a nearly 30 percent rise in the shares since April 2.

On April 4, the company inked a security services contract with The Consortium for Indian Information Technology Education, which provides IT education in India, for an undisclosed amount. Aladdin will provide 3.8 million Consortium students with an eToken security system to access online academic services.

But Eyal said India is a new market for the company and adds execution risk, while revenue recognition from the deal remains "foggy.

"We still believe there is a lot of underlying variability and unknowns in this deal with regards to timeline of deployment and whether eToken costs would be borne by The Consortium for Indian Information Technology Education or passed on to students, which we think may end up impacting the adoption rate," Eyal wrote.

Thanks for this yukiii. So, they don't know, but painted a bearish scenario. Now it's the negative scenario that's priced in.

But, for the argument's sake, say revenues won't grow 30%, as I expect, but just 15% (instead of the 10% historical revenue CAGR). My valuation model comes out like this:



Still very attractive, with an optimal selling price of $35.5. Ok, I'll keep my valuation model this conservative way, and will increase estimates if there's a case for it when the company reveals the financial details of the Indian deal.

I'll keep holding ALDN.   

additional info:
CIBC downgrades Aladdin: The investment house feels that the recent run-up in share price has peaked.
Tuesday , June 05, 2007 22:10ET
Amir Keidan
Jun 05, 2007 (Globes - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- CIBC Capital Markets has downgraded Aladdin Knowledge Systems Ltd. (Nasdaq: ALDN; TASE: ALDN) to "Sector performer" from "Sector outperfomer" following a rise of nearly 30 percent in the share since April 2. CIBC analysts Shaul Eyal notes that Aladdin signed a contract with the Consortium for Indian Information Technology Education (CIITE). Aladdin will provide 3.8 million CIITE students with its eToken security system to access online academic services.
Sources inform "Globes" that the CIITE contract is worth $38-57 million, assuming a price of $10-15 per student. Eyal says that India is a new market for the company and adds execution risk, while revenue recognition from the deal remains "foggy".
Eyal says, "We still believe there is a lot of underlying variability and unknowns in this deal with regards to timeline of deployment and whether eToken costs would be borne by CIITE or passed on to the students, which we think may end up impacting on the adoption rate."

Thanks la-onda, the new information is:

QuoteSources inform "Globes" that the CIITE contract is worth $38-57 million, assuming a price of $10-15 per student.

So, let's take the midpoint and get $47.5 M, over three years means $15.83 M a year. ALDN had $89 M in revenues in 2006, so $15.83 M more means 17.8% growth. If we add to this the 10% growth the company historically had (without this deal), we get to 29.56% growth. My initial estimate was 30%, so everything is in line with what I expected.

Let me put my valuation model back to where it was, with 30% revenue CAGR expected for the next three years:



ALDN is extremely attractive at this point, with an expected share price CAGR of 54.63%.

I'll keep holding ALDN.