SGNE.OB

[David Randolph]

Market Cap: 4.30M

Medium term chart:



Motive to buy: «I have a special feeling to recognize and trade speculative bubbles. I've seen several of them and they always work the same way.

After a bull market we're entering a speculative bubble in oil and oil stocks. Usually the bubble accounts for 50% of the move of the entire bull market in 10% of the time. So I can historically and generally expect the oil index ($OIX in www.stockcharts.com) to rise some 50% in the next 4 months or so (100% for the people who bought at the beginning of the bull market in oil stocks), with the price of the barrel of oil itself to reach something north of $80.

Like I said, I've seen many speculative bubbles come and go ... and I can tell you, in the final months of the bull market, in the bubble territory, every stock that is in some way or another related to the sector will explode higher. It is a catching up phenomena, in the end investors look in the garbage and find many small and micro cap stocks forgotten, lying on the floor and they pick them in rage.»

I'll buy AVLN.OB at tomorrow's open.

Everyday I will analyze AVLN.OB after the market close until I sell the stock. I always tell I'm going to sell before I actually take action. You just have to follow the answers to this post.

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[tradinoncoffee]

OK...I almost made a fool of myself.  Be aware that the Yahoo site does not seem to accurately reflect this company's data.  I almost questioned the sanity of this pick, and decided to google the company's name.

http://www.avalongold.ws/index.htm

Its worth the read.  Seems they have an interest in a lease in an area where Encana (one of the energy picks Cramer rants about) among others are involved....hmmmm.

[David Randolph]

I'll buy just 3.33% of the portfolio, instead of the usual 6.66%.

[David Randolph]

You can see it on the homepage, I bought AVLN.OB @$0.142

[David Randolph]

Volume was great on AVLN.OB, but since oil dropped more than $2 on Tuesday it's not strange to see that the stock wasn't unable to advance more after the higher open.

We've had these news: Rising Value of Central Utah Oil and Gas Leases Positive for Avalon

I have just 3.33% of portfolio in this stock and I'm holding it for the medium term, never mind the daily fluctuations. People will do everything they can to take advantage of these high oil prices and the companies in this sector will surely benefit.

[tradinoncoffee]

HI...I am new to working with stocks like this.  I dont trust the data that Yahoo shows on this stock.  Where can i go to learn more about the fundamentals on this stock, and ones similar.  Fundamentals such as the float, outstanding issues, captilization, balance sheet...things of that nature.  TIA.

I like this stock because of its lease and the other companies that own leases in the same area as ECA and other notables in the industry

[Irishman]

Coffee-
You might want to try www.reuters.com/finance. They're pretty thorough.
Irish

[David Randolph]

Sometimes I have the temptation to make one mistake and I believe many of our members make that mistake. It's a pretty tricky thing so I'll try to expose my point (given my English limitations).

Someone once said, I believe it was Peter Lynch, that people usually take more time choosing a refrigerator or a new TV set than a stock.That's true, for me that's true, although I'm pretty fast at choosing those things for the house too, I usually just have to say: «you choose it» 

When we buy a stock we must have a reason to do it, be it technical or fundamental. Since most of us buy fast, the reason probably isn't very complex, is it? After buying we have all the time in the world to research and dig more about the stock, but is it worth it, are you being truthful to yourself by doing that?

I don't think so. Many times we want to excuse our trading mistakes by turning ourselves into experts on that particular stock. You think «I'm losing money, but I know what I'm doing since I know the company's fundamentals and prospects».

A trader must buy for a reason. He must sell when that reason is no longer valid. Period.

What's the stock I'm analyzing? Oh, it's AVLN.OB, ok. This is a «perfectly normal» red candle in a rectangular accumulation zone, one expects:

[eagerlearner]

just heard on CNBC, the CEO of OPEC suspends the talk of raising output unless oil hits $60 again. putting pressure on oil price
lol it's getting interesting.

[David Randolph]

Nothing new to say about AVLN.OB. Volume increased a little.

[aitech61]

I have been looking for some good undervalued natural gas stocks to acquire this summer in preparation for the upcoming fall and winter season. This little gem has caught my eye on the 3StocksOnFire site. Now with legislation in the works to promote domestic drilling and with the potential oil reserves now being found in Utah seem to make this a hidden gem.  The more I look the more I like. The technicals for me are appealing and I like the entry point at these prices.  I bought in today with a nice position...

We shall see!!!!!!

[David Randolph]

I wish you make a good trade aitech61, and thank you for your first post 

AVLN.OB is trading in a range between $0.11 and $0.15. Some people believe in particular companies or products, I prefer to believe in global long term market trends, as the one that's happening in oil at this moment.

Holding AVLN.OB for the upcoming oil & gas bubble.

[aitech61]

Honestly, I am quite content with the trading action we have been seeing.  I am actually accumulating a position in this range. Several of my larger cap Natural Gas stocks are moving higher with one reaching a 52 week high today. All quite positive IMHO.

Now lets see I am presently holding some larger cap Natural Gas stocks and what am I doing? Starting to speculate with a few of the micro's that haven't moved much lately. Now I am not nieve enough to think I am the only investor doing this.. I expect it... I anticipate what I call a trickle down effect and I am willling to wait.  You will be seeing investment,  of some profits earned in the larger caps, in a select few of the micro caps based solely on speculation of future growth prospects. Is this based on a bubble. I dont know. A percieved bubble. Who knows. Once the energy bill is passed and signed into law followed by the fall and winter season I expect to see some very nice returns in the works.

Interesting Headlines:

++ Natural Gas Storage Surplus May Drop Year-Over-Year
05.17.05, 11:48 AM ET - This PR doesn't hurt the outlook at all   !!!!!

++ Rising Value of Central Utah Oil and Gas Leases Positive for Avalon
Tuesday June 28, 6:30 am ET

Avalon Energy has an undivided 85% working interest in the Shotgun Draw Prospect in the prolific natural gas producing Uinta Basin, located in the US Rockies, Utah. The lease comprises 13,189 acres with a potential 4 TCF recoverable gas and is overpressured by a 0.55 - 0.85 gradient.

According to available data in the area, the Shotgun Draw Prospect has been delineated using several hundred miles of seismic. The seismic data confirms the thick Emery pay section and shows several sediment wedges in the prospect area. The Shotgun Draw Prospect borders other leases owned by EOG Resources Inc. and EnCana Corporation. Bill Barrett Corporation.

*** Now I will provide a little information about EOG and reference to its upcoming plans.

EOG Resources Ranked 956th Largest Company In The World

EOG profit more than doubles
By Lisa Sanders, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:47 PM ET April 26, 2005   

EOG Big Target Plays Next 18 Months: (you will see Utah West Uinta Basin referenced)
http://www.eogresources.com/media/slides/UBS_0505.pdf

*** Now for the icing on the cake:

++ Rising Value of Central Utah Oil and Gas Leases Positive for Avalon
Tuesday June 28, 6:30 am ET

Although Avalon's main focus is natural gas, there are also known deposits of oil on the Uinta Basin Prospect which the Company intends to explore.

Avalon Energy Corp. reports that further to its news release dated May 10, 2005, the Company is optimistic about the recent oil and gas government auction in Utah fueled by the recent spectacular oil discovery in Central Utah. Deemed the largest onshore find in at least 30 years, located in a region of complex geology long abandoned for exploration by major oil companies.

The discovery, located 130 miles south of Salt Lake City, was made by Wolverine Gas & Oil Corp., a privately held company located in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Wolverine's test well hit "pay" in late 2003 and by May 2004 it started producing from a single deposit estimated to contain 100-200 million barrels of oil. Wolverine and government geologists said the company is looking at a total of 25 deposits that could contain 1 billion barrels of oil.

*** My take  is speculation alone will run this stock up in due time. Now we start seeing some of the fruits from the Uinta Basin. This  could become a wonderful short and long term hold to reap some major rewards !!!

*** Just my take on whats happening in the Natural Gas Sector and the land of  Avalon Energy Corp. ....

We shall see. I could be wrong...... But then I could be right!!!

Have a great day all!!!!!!

[David Randolph]

Thanks for your research aitech61.

There was no new technical information on AVLN.OB today. The general discussion on the micro cap oil stocks future was in the AMEP.OB post.

[saffeysite1]

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/050706/090000.html


Good news today.